With mixed signals on the health of the manufacturing sector, the extremely weak manufacturing jobs gains reported by the BLS gives no confidence that manufacturing is poised for significant expansion. Having endured extended contraction for much of the past two years, quite a bit more positive data is needed before that sector can be said to be on the road to recovery.
Moreover, the red flags within the services sector should not be ignored. Services growth is what has sustained the US economy overall for the past few years, and if that growth falters, the US economy could be heading into some very rough waters indeed.
Links And Sources
BLS Employment Situation Summary, March 2025: https://archive.ph/5gFCH
ADP National Employment Report, March 2025: https://archive.ph/iomlN
All Employees, Total Non-Farm: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1CRfE
All Employees, Total Private: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1EgDU
All Employees, Trade, Transportation, and Utilities: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1HJTb
ADP, Total Nonfarm Private: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1HJKi
White House Statement on March Jobs: https://www.whitehouse.gov/articles/2025/04/jobs-jobs-jobs-explosive-job-growth-in-march-as-trump-economy-booms/
Donald Trump Truth Social: https://archive.ph/W3RkM
“The US economy added a stronger-than-expected 228,000 jobs in March”: https://archive.ph/CuYTA
All Employees, Manufacturing: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1HLiX
ADP Nonfarm Private In Manufacturing: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1HLje
ADP Nonfarm Trade, Transportation, and Utilities: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1HKaI
Employment—Part-time: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1CRlZ
Unemployment Level: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1HKkD
Not In Labor Force: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1HKkt
“Real” Unemployment Rate: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1HIZx
ISM Manufacturing PMI: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/business-confidence
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/non-manufacturing-pmi
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/manufacturing-pmi
S&P Global Services PMI: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/services-pmi
US Manufacturing Production MoM: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/manufacturing-production-mom
US Capacity Utilization: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/capacity-utilization
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