Somewhat related to jobs, a friend’s son is having a hard time finding an internship- he claims it’s because of AI. Including the son, only 1 of 9 have been able to find an internship this summer before their senior year. They are at a university in NYC and all accounting, finance and engineering majors so this tells me hiring is way way way down and not investing in the future.
I have my doubts about how much of the lack of hiring is truly due to AI. Which is not to say that it isn't happening, but the data does not offer clear signals about it. If AI is displacing finance and accounting professionals, then I would expect we would see a more persistent decline in finance and professional services jobs, and on both the BLS and ADP reports. Neither sector has been doing a lot of hiring, and there has been job loss, but there also have been months where these sectors show strong hiring.
There has also been in recent months a rise in employment among foreign workers, which suggests that there may also be an H-1B factor as well (as Oracle and Amazon both have rightly gotten slammed over recently).
Whatever the source, however, Professional Services, Finance, as well as Information are sectors where major improvement in hiring is needed and, so far, has not happened as a sustained trend.
Right now, the biggest reason not to look at the BLS March jobs report and declare the jobs recession at an end is that, as of yet, we do not have a sustained improved trend in job growth, and that's what we need.
My sympathies, Heldfast. I know this is highly discouraging!
What I’ve heard is that AI will eventually allow entrepreneurs to scale up in ways that would have previously taken hundreds of thousands of dollars - if not millions. So if your young people can come up will a golden idea, they could rocket to billionaire status! I encourage you to give them optimistic reading material, such as “The Magic of Thinking Big”. Positive thinking matters! Best of luck to all of you!
I am old enough to remember then micro-computers (PCs) burst onto the scene, especially after the classic Apple "1984" ad. Just about everyone who thought they were tech-savvy had the notion that giving them the power of a PC and turning them loose would unleash a wave of ginormous innovation.
That didn't last, as applications evolved from fat-client/thin-server to thin-client/fat-server to cloud to apps on tablets and smartphones. At every stage of application evolution, more and more of application logic was centralized, proceduralized, and ultimately regimented. The basic trajectory in computer technology since the early 90s has been to replicate the centralized framework of the mainframe environment that defined 1960s computing--only instead of it being on a VAX mainframe it's off in a "cloud" somewhere.
The reason the innovation idea didn't take hold is simple: most people aren't that creative, and most ideas aren't that good. Think of ideas as mutations--most are damaging and destructive to the species, and only a handful confer competitive advantage. This is also why progressive ideas and policies are an unmitigated disaster everywhere they are implemented.
AI will allow some early adopter entrepreneurs to scale up their pump-n-dump business models, just as they did in the late 1990s. Then will come the crash, and then reality will set in that, no, AI is not the "next great thing", and probably isn't even all that great.
Yes, this is certainly going to be an unknowable future. There will inevitably be crashes and unpredictable twists. I just want young people to seize on the optimistic possibilities, so that they don’t become discouraged enough to give up on their own individual possibilities. The ones who prosper will be those with unshakable resolve!
Young people, old people, and middle aged people need to focus on one very simple concept: value.
What can I do which is valuable? What do I offer which is valuable to others?
I like to think the analytical skills I demonstrate with All Facts Matter are valuable to my readers, and the feedback I get tells me that there is value there. Those skills also are indispensable in my day job.
It's not the technology that makes a successful entrepreneur, it's the value proposition. Sometimes the value proposition is exploiting a new technology to increase one's value contribution, but more often it is just having a certain body of knowledge and an understanding of important concepts.
All people have value in the eyes of God. Our challenge here on earth is to make our labors valuable in the eyes of men. If people will focus on that, they will be successful.
Fun trivia fact: Henry David Thoreau said substantially the same thing in Walden nearly 200 years ago.
You are the absolute best at making sense of conflicting data, Peter. I am impressed each time, and I think you are right in your conclusions, Magnificent Man.
The most optimistic sign in this data is finally seeing an increase in manufacturing jobs. I’ve had the sense that when Trump implemented his tariffs, he took the snow globe of the economy and gave it a good shake. The increase in manufacturing jobs indicates to me that maybe now things are settling in good ways, with new domestic manufacturing capabilities. End the war within the next two weeks and we may have a “take-off” economy.
I’m really going to celebrate when we win this war!
President Trump indisputably altered the maritime trading status quo with the Liberation Day tariffs. Along the way he invalidated several cherished economic models about global trade.
What will the new status quo be when everything settles down? At present, we do not know.
Somewhat related to jobs, a friend’s son is having a hard time finding an internship- he claims it’s because of AI. Including the son, only 1 of 9 have been able to find an internship this summer before their senior year. They are at a university in NYC and all accounting, finance and engineering majors so this tells me hiring is way way way down and not investing in the future.
I have my doubts about how much of the lack of hiring is truly due to AI. Which is not to say that it isn't happening, but the data does not offer clear signals about it. If AI is displacing finance and accounting professionals, then I would expect we would see a more persistent decline in finance and professional services jobs, and on both the BLS and ADP reports. Neither sector has been doing a lot of hiring, and there has been job loss, but there also have been months where these sectors show strong hiring.
There has also been in recent months a rise in employment among foreign workers, which suggests that there may also be an H-1B factor as well (as Oracle and Amazon both have rightly gotten slammed over recently).
Whatever the source, however, Professional Services, Finance, as well as Information are sectors where major improvement in hiring is needed and, so far, has not happened as a sustained trend.
Right now, the biggest reason not to look at the BLS March jobs report and declare the jobs recession at an end is that, as of yet, we do not have a sustained improved trend in job growth, and that's what we need.
My sympathies, Heldfast. I know this is highly discouraging!
What I’ve heard is that AI will eventually allow entrepreneurs to scale up in ways that would have previously taken hundreds of thousands of dollars - if not millions. So if your young people can come up will a golden idea, they could rocket to billionaire status! I encourage you to give them optimistic reading material, such as “The Magic of Thinking Big”. Positive thinking matters! Best of luck to all of you!
I am old enough to remember then micro-computers (PCs) burst onto the scene, especially after the classic Apple "1984" ad. Just about everyone who thought they were tech-savvy had the notion that giving them the power of a PC and turning them loose would unleash a wave of ginormous innovation.
That didn't last, as applications evolved from fat-client/thin-server to thin-client/fat-server to cloud to apps on tablets and smartphones. At every stage of application evolution, more and more of application logic was centralized, proceduralized, and ultimately regimented. The basic trajectory in computer technology since the early 90s has been to replicate the centralized framework of the mainframe environment that defined 1960s computing--only instead of it being on a VAX mainframe it's off in a "cloud" somewhere.
The reason the innovation idea didn't take hold is simple: most people aren't that creative, and most ideas aren't that good. Think of ideas as mutations--most are damaging and destructive to the species, and only a handful confer competitive advantage. This is also why progressive ideas and policies are an unmitigated disaster everywhere they are implemented.
AI will allow some early adopter entrepreneurs to scale up their pump-n-dump business models, just as they did in the late 1990s. Then will come the crash, and then reality will set in that, no, AI is not the "next great thing", and probably isn't even all that great.
Yes, this is certainly going to be an unknowable future. There will inevitably be crashes and unpredictable twists. I just want young people to seize on the optimistic possibilities, so that they don’t become discouraged enough to give up on their own individual possibilities. The ones who prosper will be those with unshakable resolve!
Young people, old people, and middle aged people need to focus on one very simple concept: value.
What can I do which is valuable? What do I offer which is valuable to others?
I like to think the analytical skills I demonstrate with All Facts Matter are valuable to my readers, and the feedback I get tells me that there is value there. Those skills also are indispensable in my day job.
It's not the technology that makes a successful entrepreneur, it's the value proposition. Sometimes the value proposition is exploiting a new technology to increase one's value contribution, but more often it is just having a certain body of knowledge and an understanding of important concepts.
All people have value in the eyes of God. Our challenge here on earth is to make our labors valuable in the eyes of men. If people will focus on that, they will be successful.
Fun trivia fact: Henry David Thoreau said substantially the same thing in Walden nearly 200 years ago.
You are the absolute best at making sense of conflicting data, Peter. I am impressed each time, and I think you are right in your conclusions, Magnificent Man.
The most optimistic sign in this data is finally seeing an increase in manufacturing jobs. I’ve had the sense that when Trump implemented his tariffs, he took the snow globe of the economy and gave it a good shake. The increase in manufacturing jobs indicates to me that maybe now things are settling in good ways, with new domestic manufacturing capabilities. End the war within the next two weeks and we may have a “take-off” economy.
I’m really going to celebrate when we win this war!
President Trump indisputably altered the maritime trading status quo with the Liberation Day tariffs. Along the way he invalidated several cherished economic models about global trade.
What will the new status quo be when everything settles down? At present, we do not know.
Welcome to interesting times!