I don't look typically look at that breakdown (or, for that matter, any of the demographic breakdowns). My focus is really on if the economy is expanding and creating additional labor demand.
That being said, if we index foreign and native employment levels, we do see an increase in foreign hiring from November through March, and overall since January 2025 native hiring has increased somewhat while foreign hiring has decreased somewhat.
“…the longer-term unemployment picture from the BLS Employment Situation Summary is still showing rising joblessness dating back to mid-2023.”
Peter, you have shown several times that the BLS produced unreliable - even fudged - data. Are you more confident now in their competence, since Trump took office?
Also, Republicans running for office this year will claim today’s new positive jobs growth data as being the result of Trump’s policies, such as the tariffs that have driven new domestic investment. Maybe there is not conclusive proof yet, but if there is before the midterm elections, I hope you will post the proof? Thanks, Peter!
The BLS data still shows significant divergence between the Establishment and Household Surveys. We necessarily must approach the BLS data with high degree of skepticism.
At the same time, we can't just ignore the BLS data.
While individual months are inherently problematic, and doubly so where the BLS is concerned, trends are more difficult to manufacture than individual months. I am less skeptical about the trends than I am about the monthly jobs data sets overall.
With the jobs data today, I’m curious if you saw the breakdown in hiring between foreigners and native born Americans?
I don't look typically look at that breakdown (or, for that matter, any of the demographic breakdowns). My focus is really on if the economy is expanding and creating additional labor demand.
That being said, if we index foreign and native employment levels, we do see an increase in foreign hiring from November through March, and overall since January 2025 native hiring has increased somewhat while foreign hiring has decreased somewhat.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1WM2o
“…the longer-term unemployment picture from the BLS Employment Situation Summary is still showing rising joblessness dating back to mid-2023.”
Peter, you have shown several times that the BLS produced unreliable - even fudged - data. Are you more confident now in their competence, since Trump took office?
Also, Republicans running for office this year will claim today’s new positive jobs growth data as being the result of Trump’s policies, such as the tariffs that have driven new domestic investment. Maybe there is not conclusive proof yet, but if there is before the midterm elections, I hope you will post the proof? Thanks, Peter!
The BLS data still shows significant divergence between the Establishment and Household Surveys. We necessarily must approach the BLS data with high degree of skepticism.
At the same time, we can't just ignore the BLS data.
While individual months are inherently problematic, and doubly so where the BLS is concerned, trends are more difficult to manufacture than individual months. I am less skeptical about the trends than I am about the monthly jobs data sets overall.