As an armchair epidemiologist, virologist, vaccinologist, and immunologist (sure, why not? I can't do worse), I will wager the safe and effective serum is the culprit. I'm no expert but I play one on Substack.
I'm thinking of writing a piece on the monkeypox situation, just mostly looking at a paper everyone tied to the Wuhan Institute of Virology. It does appear this may be zoonotic in nature- at least for the time being. There are questions being raised as to whether monkeypox may have been endemic for some time and we have not noticed it. Maybe our current situation is making itself more pronounced, or it could be an incident of mass exposure like these rave and sex parties.
I would like to know the level of anti-monkeypox antibodies among endemic countries. It could be that we are in such a precarious state, and that we have not necessarily been exposed to monkeypox in the West, that is making us more susceptible.
My initial presumption is that, with smallpox all but eradicated, most everyone under the age of 50 is immunologically naive with respect to orthopoxviruses. West Africa perhaps less so, but even accounting for some differential there, the aggressive spread of monkeypox outside of Africa is off the charts.
If it's the same clade and the same strain, then why so much variance?
It could very well be a combination of many factors. Orthopoxvirus naïve people that may also be immunocompromised meeting at a large event where a lot of close contact is occurring sounds like a good way to cause trouble. What's interesting is that the sequence from 2021 appears to have its own set of large mutations compared to the 2017-2019 strains, and so it raises questions if monkeypox may have undergone something to have mutated rapidly in the past few years.
Something concerning would be to see the level of microevolution that is apparently occurring- many of these samples contain SNPs separate from each other which shouldn't happen to a dsDNA virus. One plausible explanation could be that sequencing may have caused artifacts to remain and scientists conducting the research may have made improper base calls. But in general the high rate of variability is concerning.
I should have commented that I also came across a CNN article which made similar arguments about Africa's monkeypox cases, but of course it was from the perspective that we should do something about it and learn there are other people out there. I guess it's another example of encouraging Western intervention.
Aha — I can put my little spreadsheet away — hadn’t realized Our World in Data was tracking this — of course.
That this is happening now as opposed to an everpresent leakage from endemic countries is an incredibly good question. Just that question needs to be asked repeatedly, out loud and widely. Why are we talking only about a previous outbreak as far back as 2003? What is different now that apparently hasn’t happened in the past ~20 years since? Keep an eye out for prairie dogs — thats what triggered 2003 — must be them again!
WHO count updated yesterday — over 1000 now. Somebody REALLY needs to get a hold of the inoculation status of those cases.
Right -- maybe handfuls leaked out -- now we're somehow getting to a thousand outside the endemic region. Thats the question that needs to be asked (not saying you're not doing that, just emphasizing) -- what changed now? We know what that was clearly, but asking that question out loud whenever these are brought up hopefully can engage a neuron or two. OK dreaming maybe.
You're fundamentally rephrasing one of the questions I raise.
We have an acknowledged reality of an ongoing monkeypox outbreak in West Africa--either the latest in a series of outbreaks since 2017 or the latest cases in a single extended outbreak. This outbreak is producing cases in the single digits for the most part. The 1284 cases in DRC, coupled with that country's greater mortality from the disease, strongly suggests that it is a separate outbreak of the more virulent and more lethal Congo Basin clade, which makes it a different outbreak from both Nigeria and Europe.
Without an expanded endemic region, the divergence in rates of spread from West Africa to Europe is hard to explain. If the endemic region is still just West Africa--if the natural reservoirs for the virus are only there--then how is it that the virus is multiple orders of magnitude more aggressive there than in Nigeria?
Immune system damage from the COVID inoculations is one model that could explain the divergence. Fundamentally, the virus is not on its own significantly more transmissible or virulent, but the population in Europe, being more highly inoculated, is less able to ward off the pathogen.
If we exclude immune system damage, then we still have to explain the divergence in rates of spread. THAT train of thought leads in some interesting--and not at all comforting--directions.
For the details you'll have to read my next article on the subject! (shameless plug alert!)
Yes you’re right to cover the other strain here - I’m probably too fixated on the sequencing implying western strain. Yes good don’t jump to conclusions :) Anxiously waiting the next post then!
Geert is highly exercised by the lunacy of the mRNA inoculations.
ADE is a proven phenomenon with almost every vaccine and inoculation. It is one of the reasons "leaky" vaccines are a bad idea in the middle of a disease outbreak.
Will there be an increase in ADE events because of the mass inoculation campaigns? Almost certainly, and we may already be seeing this.
Is it the end of western civilization? That's a bit more problematic. The utter barbarities we've witnessed around the world in response to the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus makes a pretty compelling case that "civilization" has already ended, and we're just now sliding down the razor blade into the next Dark Age.
Or there will be a convenient series of deaths (all wholly unconnected to the inoculations, of course), leaving a power vacuum which will disrupt the Faucists finely tuned plans, and, after a time, equilibrium will be restored (by God/Nature, not by Man).
ADE will happen and likely is happening. How much is it happening? That's a good question to which we may never get a good answer.
Was it planned? It might have been. At this point nothing would surprise me.
That being said, there is no definitive evidence that this is a calibrated effort. While the actions of the Faucists are in every instance intentional, it is by no means certain that the horror show of adverse consequences we're seeing is the end result they intended..
And even if it is, there is no way for anyone to truly project the level of ADE, or of adverse events in general, that will transpire because of the serial lunacies of the FDA and CDC.
Of course, both the FDA and the CDC are notionally supposed to know better, and their pontifications about "science" mean they have no excuse for not knowing better.
Whether this is malice, stupidity, or malicious stupidity I really can't say. But we're at the point that I don't think the distinction really matters any more. Occam's Razor makes the stupidity perspective the least logically burdensome, but simplicity of form does not inherently invalidate the more complex scenarios.
In every instance, it's a fustercluck of side effects and toxicities.
As an armchair epidemiologist, virologist, vaccinologist, and immunologist (sure, why not? I can't do worse), I will wager the safe and effective serum is the culprit. I'm no expert but I play one on Substack.
I'm thinking of writing a piece on the monkeypox situation, just mostly looking at a paper everyone tied to the Wuhan Institute of Virology. It does appear this may be zoonotic in nature- at least for the time being. There are questions being raised as to whether monkeypox may have been endemic for some time and we have not noticed it. Maybe our current situation is making itself more pronounced, or it could be an incident of mass exposure like these rave and sex parties.
I would like to know the level of anti-monkeypox antibodies among endemic countries. It could be that we are in such a precarious state, and that we have not necessarily been exposed to monkeypox in the West, that is making us more susceptible.
My initial presumption is that, with smallpox all but eradicated, most everyone under the age of 50 is immunologically naive with respect to orthopoxviruses. West Africa perhaps less so, but even accounting for some differential there, the aggressive spread of monkeypox outside of Africa is off the charts.
If it's the same clade and the same strain, then why so much variance?
There's a missing link here.
Chronic infection in human travelers, possibly migrants, from areas where it is endemic?
It could very well be a combination of many factors. Orthopoxvirus naïve people that may also be immunocompromised meeting at a large event where a lot of close contact is occurring sounds like a good way to cause trouble. What's interesting is that the sequence from 2021 appears to have its own set of large mutations compared to the 2017-2019 strains, and so it raises questions if monkeypox may have undergone something to have mutated rapidly in the past few years.
Something concerning would be to see the level of microevolution that is apparently occurring- many of these samples contain SNPs separate from each other which shouldn't happen to a dsDNA virus. One plausible explanation could be that sequencing may have caused artifacts to remain and scientists conducting the research may have made improper base calls. But in general the high rate of variability is concerning.
I should have commented that I also came across a CNN article which made similar arguments about Africa's monkeypox cases, but of course it was from the perspective that we should do something about it and learn there are other people out there. I guess it's another example of encouraging Western intervention.
Aha — I can put my little spreadsheet away — hadn’t realized Our World in Data was tracking this — of course.
That this is happening now as opposed to an everpresent leakage from endemic countries is an incredibly good question. Just that question needs to be asked repeatedly, out loud and widely. Why are we talking only about a previous outbreak as far back as 2003? What is different now that apparently hasn’t happened in the past ~20 years since? Keep an eye out for prairie dogs — thats what triggered 2003 — must be them again!
WHO count updated yesterday — over 1000 now. Somebody REALLY needs to get a hold of the inoculation status of those cases.
https://www.cdc.gov/poxvirus/monkeypox/response/2022/world-map.html
There actually has been "leakage" from West Africa. There were two US cases of monkeypox last year, both with travel links to West Africa.
What we have not seen prior to now has been human-to-human transmission outside of Africa. Even the 2018 "exported" cases did not feature that
But now that is happening, and at an unusually high rate of spread.
Right -- maybe handfuls leaked out -- now we're somehow getting to a thousand outside the endemic region. Thats the question that needs to be asked (not saying you're not doing that, just emphasizing) -- what changed now? We know what that was clearly, but asking that question out loud whenever these are brought up hopefully can engage a neuron or two. OK dreaming maybe.
You're fundamentally rephrasing one of the questions I raise.
We have an acknowledged reality of an ongoing monkeypox outbreak in West Africa--either the latest in a series of outbreaks since 2017 or the latest cases in a single extended outbreak. This outbreak is producing cases in the single digits for the most part. The 1284 cases in DRC, coupled with that country's greater mortality from the disease, strongly suggests that it is a separate outbreak of the more virulent and more lethal Congo Basin clade, which makes it a different outbreak from both Nigeria and Europe.
Without an expanded endemic region, the divergence in rates of spread from West Africa to Europe is hard to explain. If the endemic region is still just West Africa--if the natural reservoirs for the virus are only there--then how is it that the virus is multiple orders of magnitude more aggressive there than in Nigeria?
Immune system damage from the COVID inoculations is one model that could explain the divergence. Fundamentally, the virus is not on its own significantly more transmissible or virulent, but the population in Europe, being more highly inoculated, is less able to ward off the pathogen.
If we exclude immune system damage, then we still have to explain the divergence in rates of spread. THAT train of thought leads in some interesting--and not at all comforting--directions.
For the details you'll have to read my next article on the subject! (shameless plug alert!)
Yes you’re right to cover the other strain here - I’m probably too fixated on the sequencing implying western strain. Yes good don’t jump to conclusions :) Anxiously waiting the next post then!
Quoting Governor Ron DeSantis, let us hope they don't "Monkey this up."
If the inoculation rates are any clue, they already have.
What do you make of Geert’s prediction of ADE in vaccinated. He says “end of western civilization”
Geert is highly exercised by the lunacy of the mRNA inoculations.
ADE is a proven phenomenon with almost every vaccine and inoculation. It is one of the reasons "leaky" vaccines are a bad idea in the middle of a disease outbreak.
Will there be an increase in ADE events because of the mass inoculation campaigns? Almost certainly, and we may already be seeing this.
Is it the end of western civilization? That's a bit more problematic. The utter barbarities we've witnessed around the world in response to the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus makes a pretty compelling case that "civilization" has already ended, and we're just now sliding down the razor blade into the next Dark Age.
Or there will be a convenient series of deaths (all wholly unconnected to the inoculations, of course), leaving a power vacuum which will disrupt the Faucists finely tuned plans, and, after a time, equilibrium will be restored (by God/Nature, not by Man).
ADE will happen and likely is happening. How much is it happening? That's a good question to which we may never get a good answer.
Unless ADE was planned by the Faucists.
Was it planned? It might have been. At this point nothing would surprise me.
That being said, there is no definitive evidence that this is a calibrated effort. While the actions of the Faucists are in every instance intentional, it is by no means certain that the horror show of adverse consequences we're seeing is the end result they intended..
And even if it is, there is no way for anyone to truly project the level of ADE, or of adverse events in general, that will transpire because of the serial lunacies of the FDA and CDC.
Of course, both the FDA and the CDC are notionally supposed to know better, and their pontifications about "science" mean they have no excuse for not knowing better.
Whether this is malice, stupidity, or malicious stupidity I really can't say. But we're at the point that I don't think the distinction really matters any more. Occam's Razor makes the stupidity perspective the least logically burdensome, but simplicity of form does not inherently invalidate the more complex scenarios.
In every instance, it's a fustercluck of side effects and toxicities.