Peter, you are so resourceful! I am endlessly impressed by your ability to find excellent data, including the data that anticipates our “but what about…” questions. And your analysis is always irrefutable and genius-level. Magnificent!
So, this week Trump fully unleashes Bessent on Iran, with economic attacks at reportedly unprecedented levels. I know I can count on you to follow the market reactions, domestically, internationally, in stock markets and futures markets. I’m looking forward especially to reading whether you think the reactions are rational and proportionate or not.
The other day I saw a post claiming that Trump is going to make the Strait of Hormuz a U.S. territory. Whaaaaa? That’s international waters. Peter, can Trump do that, without the Gulf nations cancelling that plan?
Reality check: there is zero chance of that happening. A claim like that would need territorial control on both sides of the Strait, otherwise Trump is pushing against every established freedom of navigation principle there is.
But, in true reality TV fashion, Trump says a lot of things just to troll the opposition. He does that with the media, he does that with Congress, and he does that with foreign leaders.
It gives the Establishmentarians fits because he violates just about every diplomatic norm there is. The jury is still out as to how effective a strategy it is overall.
🕯️ Remember our sons and daughters still in Harms Way with Central Command🇧🇭 and the ⚓ Fifth Fleet!
Big Cash in the Oil Patch for hardworking young men right now! 👷🏾♂️👨🏻🔧👨🏼🏭👨🏻🔬⚙️🧰🔧⛓️🛻
Peter, you are so resourceful! I am endlessly impressed by your ability to find excellent data, including the data that anticipates our “but what about…” questions. And your analysis is always irrefutable and genius-level. Magnificent!
So, this week Trump fully unleashes Bessent on Iran, with economic attacks at reportedly unprecedented levels. I know I can count on you to follow the market reactions, domestically, internationally, in stock markets and futures markets. I’m looking forward especially to reading whether you think the reactions are rational and proportionate or not.
The other day I saw a post claiming that Trump is going to make the Strait of Hormuz a U.S. territory. Whaaaaa? That’s international waters. Peter, can Trump do that, without the Gulf nations cancelling that plan?
I can tell you right now I don't think the markets are being at all rational about the situation in the Persian Gulf.
Oil futures especially are trading on the hopium of a quick deal and a quick end. There is no data point which supports that outlook.
Ominous!
Looks like the post I saw was taken from this:
President Trump said he plans to declare the Strait of Hormuz a U.S. territory as he once again asserted control of the critical waterway.https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2026/08/14/trump-straight-of-hormuz-territory-iran-war/91310185007/
Reality check: there is zero chance of that happening. A claim like that would need territorial control on both sides of the Strait, otherwise Trump is pushing against every established freedom of navigation principle there is.
But, in true reality TV fashion, Trump says a lot of things just to troll the opposition. He does that with the media, he does that with Congress, and he does that with foreign leaders.
It gives the Establishmentarians fits because he violates just about every diplomatic norm there is. The jury is still out as to how effective a strategy it is overall.