Opportunity Lost?
Did Putin Harm Russia's Prospects For A Favorable Peace?
Did Vladimir Putin miss an opportunity to end the war in Ukraine?
That is a question we must now ask, as Putin opted not to accompany the Russian delegation which arrived in Istanbul to participate in in the “direct talks” with Ukraine which Putin himself had suggested.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky took Putin up on his offer and committed to be in Istanbul to meet with Putin.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy had challenged the Kremlin leader to attend the talks "if he's not afraid," in an apparent contest to show Trump who wants peace more. Zelenskiy was on his way to Turkey, a Ukrainian official said. Earlier, the Kyiv leader has said he would take part in the negotiations only if Putin were there.
With the Ukrainian Defense and Foreign Ministers included in their delegation to the talks, there is no denying that Ukraine’s delegation included more senior officials than Russia’s, officials who would be able to speak authoritatively and make decisions.
Moreover, not only did Putin send a lower-level delegation—headed by the same man who headed the failed 2022 negotiations—shortly before the talks could begin Russia launched another drone attack on Ukrainian cities.
Prior to the planned negotiations, the Russian army attacked Ukraine with 145 drones, injuring dozens of people, and continued to grind forward on the enormous battlefield in the country’s east.
“Russians are getting ready to continue their offensive in Ukraine while pushing for negotiations, and that’s a normal practice, let’s be honest,” Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukraine’s Military Intelligence, told reporters Wednesday in Kyiv. “Talks do not mean a solution.”
It is difficult to see Putin or the delegation as wanting peace when Putin intentionally chooses more war.
Why did Putin propose talks if he was not going to treat them seriously? Was he merely attempting to forestall the imposition of further sanctions? That could prove to be a consequential misreading of the situation, as President Trump has been reportedly considering additional sanctions on Russia if he was persuaded Russia was trying to frustrate the peace process Trump has been attempting to initiate.
Trump, who is growing increasingly frustrated with both Russia and Ukraine as he tries to push them towards a peace settlement, said he was "always considering" secondary sanctions against Moscow if he thought it was blocking the process.
U.S. officials have spoken about possible financial sanctions as well as potential secondary sanctions on buyers of Russian oil.
Toying with talks—which Putin has arguably done in Istanbul—could very easily be the proof Trump needs to justify further sanctioning Russia. With the EU having threatened further sanctions if Russia did not agree to a 30-day ceasefire, giving Trump a reason to get on board with the EU ultimatum is a poor tactical choice for Putin.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has panned Zelensky’s calls for a ceasefire, claiming that Ukraine would merely use the time to rearm and resupply front-line troops in Eastern Ukraine. Lavrov might be right, and Zelensky sending a high-ranking delegation to Istanbul could be merely performative—certainly the media has emphasized that Zelensky has been making a point in agreeing to these talks of showing to Donald Trump that Ukraine is not the obstacle to peace—but the same accusation could be made against Russia.
As I have said before, achieving peace requires both sides to take chances. Donald Trump took a chance urging Zelensky to agree to Putin’s proposed talks. Zelensky took a chance by agreeing to direct talks. The EU has taken a chance by delaying the imposition of further sanctions on Russia. Putin himself even took a chance proposing the direct talks.
All sides are going to have to take many more chances than just agreeing to talks and then merely going through the motions. Serious negotiations will be needed, and difficult choices will have to be made.
President Trump has been consistent in articulating a desire to see “this stupid war” in Ukraine ended. Full disclosure: I share that desire. Peace is what is in the best interests of both Ukraine and Russia. Peace needs to happen, and it needs to happen now.
At the same time, however, we should not ignore that Zelensky agreed to Trump’s minerals deal, which gives the United States a definable interest in not just Ukrainian sovereignty but Ukrainian territorial integrity. Regardless of how economically important that agreement will or will not be, its geopolitical consequence is that it creates a foundation for Trump to continue to support Ukraine’s war effort.
Russia can almost certainly outlast Ukraine if US support is withdrawn. Whether Russia can do so if US support is maintained and even increased is a far less certain proposition.
Both Putin and Zelensky want to end the war on terms which favor their respective countries. By ghosting his own talks, Putin may have seriously damaged his own prospects for getting what he wants out of the inevitable peace process.
That would be a mistake, and it appears to be the mistake Putin has made in Istanbul.
In situations like these, I’m always left wondering what’s going on behind the scenes that few people know anything about. Has Putin received credible intel of an assassination plot against him? Is someone being blackmailed? Who knows.
It’s endlessly frustrating that war situations persist for years, and no one seems able to just stop it already! But if anyone can end the war, it would be Trump and his amazing audacity. Go Donald!