I'm sort of gratified that polio is coming back into public consciousness. It will help young people understand this old geezer (me) better. Not that I ever run into a young person anymore.
But even before Queen Elizabeth II became queen, I actually had the real polio. 1950.
I grew up in a company (Dupont) town also. Will company towns ever be understandable again to youth today?
By the way, I'm pretty sure there was no correlation between Dupont and me getting polio.
"The present circulation of polio in New York is telling a far more problematic tale, one in which polio is less dangerous and less disabling."
Polio was near-universally asymptomatic even during the height of paralytic cases. Adult seropositivity was widespread, so at the time it was a mystery whether adults were somehow producing antibodies randomly "The nature of the virus-neutralizing property which usually appears in the serum of animals recovering from an attack of poliomyelitis and which is found in the majority of convalescent human beings and so-called "normal" adult persons is problematic." - https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC374583/
Obviously these were antibodies from non-paralytic encounter, and all adults had them. When chimps were given wild polio orally (not the nerve-adopted Flexner strain), in the method developed by Bodian and Howe, they produced antibodies without a clinical course - https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2135700/
By 1955 it was acknowledged that childhood asymptomatic encounter produced near-universal lifelong immunity, with a possible role for natural boosting via seasonal asymptomatic waves - "Natural inapparent infection in early childhood, the process by which the vast majority of the world population acquires immunity to poliomyelitis, is known to provide lifelong protection" https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1980369/
And, the Sabin "vaccine" was essentially just the virus, delivered orally, and paralysis was ultra-rare. So it is not a very dangerous virus and so the mystery is why paralysis suddenly became less rare, first in US children in the 10s, then US adults in the 20s and 30s, then US children again from 44-55, and sporadically adults again after, and in expanding countries. Possibilities include excessive hygiene, intravenous injection from penecillin shots after 1944, etc.
Of course, since we switched off the Sabin vaccine 20 years ago, no one under 20 has mucosal immunity, and adults have lacked their yearly booster for all that time. So things could get quite interesting.
I'll be the first one to admit that I don't know how many cases of polio New York SHOULD have.
But if the single symptomatic case of paralytic polio is what should be expected from the observed environmental incidence of the virus, the question remains is this truly an "emergency" as Governor Hochul has declared?
For most Americans in this day and age, polio is a tale from prior generations. It is not a disease with which we are generally familiar. Even mumps and measles, while uncommon, are not beyond our current cultural awareness.
This New York "outbreak" is the first time for most Americans this disease has presented in the here and now. Looking at the data, the actual severity of the outbreak does not quite match our cultural recollection.
Right, because things like universal seropositivity and abundant environmental shedding of opv virus during vaccine campaigns never made it into mainstream awareness. I was even in a hostile conversation with a doctor last month who thought that polio would have killed "half the people on earth" without the vaccine. So the reputation of the virus is definitely out of sync with reality. The peak was 40 per 100k per year "permanently affected / killed" according to https://mappinghistory.uoregon.edu/english/US/US37-01.html (unfortunately I don't know what their source material is, but it's a cool set of stats), and again that might have been a result of not the virus itself but some cofactor.
Actually, I self-fact-checked "the Sabin "vaccine" was essentially just the virus" to see if any molecular determination of attenuation was ever demonstrated. Turns out it was, and it's awesome - a silent C->U mutation at position 472 of type 3 which messes up the RNA read efficiency or promotion. Revertant / virulent Sabin-derived polio restores the C https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC320200/https://academic.oup.com/jid/article/190/2/409/1746725
The second link demonstrates that "attenuation" and "neurovirulence" are both in vitro construct - U472 is not replication competent in vivo, and so 100% of OPV recipients eventually shed the "non-attenuated" C472 mutant due to selection pressure:
"During the first week after vaccination, the MP increased from 0% to nearly 100%, and, from day 14 until the end of the study period, the MP remained close to 100%. The biphasic shedding pattern and the coinciding development of mutant sequences suggest that the replication dynamics of OPV3 occurring during the first week after vaccination produced a strong selective pressure for development of the nt 472 mutant."
It is therefor unclear that U472-attenuation, even if it diminishes neurotropism in vitro, is relevant for in vivo OPV safety. C472 is recovered from paralytic cases because it is the only in vivo replication-competent version of the virus to begin with. But direct oral admin of C472 might be just as safe. Obviously depends on whether, upon admin of U472 in OPV, immune responses start before the reversion to C472. But it seems entirely possible that the attenuation / U472 mutation is a Dumbo's feather.
Wow, thank you for this information. People are going to be living in a constant state of fear, I can't imagine the damage to children's minds. I read some accounts professional men reminiscing how HIV and the D.A.R.E program terrified them at 9yo whose imaginations went wild thinking a stranger would inject them with drugs and OCD habits out of fear for HIV and needing therapy, and their deep concerns for the kids today with Covid and masks. Now the paranoia is on water and people, the neverending news, stress hormones and overactive imaginations are going to implode our children and society, without God's grace no one will be able to discern and think rationally.
I was terrified of HIV as a kid and it lasted until my 20’s. My dad said once “they’re putting infected needles on the seats in movie theaters! Watch out!”. We’ve all been Fauci’d.
Perhaps it's being added to the water somehow and not being shedded. Will be linking this tomorrow @https://nothingnewunderthesun2016.com/
An interesting speculation. Is there any evidence supporting it?
Not that I am aware of, it just sounded conceivable!
"Everything old is new again!"
I'm sort of gratified that polio is coming back into public consciousness. It will help young people understand this old geezer (me) better. Not that I ever run into a young person anymore.
But even before Queen Elizabeth II became queen, I actually had the real polio. 1950.
I grew up in a company (Dupont) town also. Will company towns ever be understandable again to youth today?
By the way, I'm pretty sure there was no correlation between Dupont and me getting polio.
"The present circulation of polio in New York is telling a far more problematic tale, one in which polio is less dangerous and less disabling."
Polio was near-universally asymptomatic even during the height of paralytic cases. Adult seropositivity was widespread, so at the time it was a mystery whether adults were somehow producing antibodies randomly "The nature of the virus-neutralizing property which usually appears in the serum of animals recovering from an attack of poliomyelitis and which is found in the majority of convalescent human beings and so-called "normal" adult persons is problematic." - https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC374583/
Obviously these were antibodies from non-paralytic encounter, and all adults had them. When chimps were given wild polio orally (not the nerve-adopted Flexner strain), in the method developed by Bodian and Howe, they produced antibodies without a clinical course - https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2135700/
By 1955 it was acknowledged that childhood asymptomatic encounter produced near-universal lifelong immunity, with a possible role for natural boosting via seasonal asymptomatic waves - "Natural inapparent infection in early childhood, the process by which the vast majority of the world population acquires immunity to poliomyelitis, is known to provide lifelong protection" https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1980369/
And, the Sabin "vaccine" was essentially just the virus, delivered orally, and paralysis was ultra-rare. So it is not a very dangerous virus and so the mystery is why paralysis suddenly became less rare, first in US children in the 10s, then US adults in the 20s and 30s, then US children again from 44-55, and sporadically adults again after, and in expanding countries. Possibilities include excessive hygiene, intravenous injection from penecillin shots after 1944, etc.
Of course, since we switched off the Sabin vaccine 20 years ago, no one under 20 has mucosal immunity, and adults have lacked their yearly booster for all that time. So things could get quite interesting.
I'll be the first one to admit that I don't know how many cases of polio New York SHOULD have.
But if the single symptomatic case of paralytic polio is what should be expected from the observed environmental incidence of the virus, the question remains is this truly an "emergency" as Governor Hochul has declared?
For most Americans in this day and age, polio is a tale from prior generations. It is not a disease with which we are generally familiar. Even mumps and measles, while uncommon, are not beyond our current cultural awareness.
This New York "outbreak" is the first time for most Americans this disease has presented in the here and now. Looking at the data, the actual severity of the outbreak does not quite match our cultural recollection.
Right, because things like universal seropositivity and abundant environmental shedding of opv virus during vaccine campaigns never made it into mainstream awareness. I was even in a hostile conversation with a doctor last month who thought that polio would have killed "half the people on earth" without the vaccine. So the reputation of the virus is definitely out of sync with reality. The peak was 40 per 100k per year "permanently affected / killed" according to https://mappinghistory.uoregon.edu/english/US/US37-01.html (unfortunately I don't know what their source material is, but it's a cool set of stats), and again that might have been a result of not the virus itself but some cofactor.
Actually, I self-fact-checked "the Sabin "vaccine" was essentially just the virus" to see if any molecular determination of attenuation was ever demonstrated. Turns out it was, and it's awesome - a silent C->U mutation at position 472 of type 3 which messes up the RNA read efficiency or promotion. Revertant / virulent Sabin-derived polio restores the C https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC320200/ https://academic.oup.com/jid/article/190/2/409/1746725
The second link demonstrates that "attenuation" and "neurovirulence" are both in vitro construct - U472 is not replication competent in vivo, and so 100% of OPV recipients eventually shed the "non-attenuated" C472 mutant due to selection pressure:
"During the first week after vaccination, the MP increased from 0% to nearly 100%, and, from day 14 until the end of the study period, the MP remained close to 100%. The biphasic shedding pattern and the coinciding development of mutant sequences suggest that the replication dynamics of OPV3 occurring during the first week after vaccination produced a strong selective pressure for development of the nt 472 mutant."
It is therefor unclear that U472-attenuation, even if it diminishes neurotropism in vitro, is relevant for in vivo OPV safety. C472 is recovered from paralytic cases because it is the only in vivo replication-competent version of the virus to begin with. But direct oral admin of C472 might be just as safe. Obviously depends on whether, upon admin of U472 in OPV, immune responses start before the reversion to C472. But it seems entirely possible that the attenuation / U472 mutation is a Dumbo's feather.
Wow, thank you for this information. People are going to be living in a constant state of fear, I can't imagine the damage to children's minds. I read some accounts professional men reminiscing how HIV and the D.A.R.E program terrified them at 9yo whose imaginations went wild thinking a stranger would inject them with drugs and OCD habits out of fear for HIV and needing therapy, and their deep concerns for the kids today with Covid and masks. Now the paranoia is on water and people, the neverending news, stress hormones and overactive imaginations are going to implode our children and society, without God's grace no one will be able to discern and think rationally.
I was terrified of HIV as a kid and it lasted until my 20’s. My dad said once “they’re putting infected needles on the seats in movie theaters! Watch out!”. We’ve all been Fauci’d.
And now in the same way, every time a kid coughs or sneezes, do they think they're going to kill someone? It's child abuse on a national/global scale
I’m calling BS. Any “health emergency” going forward touted by any politicians will be null and void for me. It’s just static.