Peter, yesterday you wrote this: “ Perhaps also true to form, Trump made the right call—Powell needs to lower interest rates—but for exactly the wrong reason. Powell does need to lower interest rates, but because the economy is not performing at all well. The real economy is doing nowhere nearly as well as the top-level GDP numbers suggest.”
This got me pondering to what extent Trump understands the actual health of the economy. For political and leadership reasons, of course he will tweet that the economic news is good. And neither you nor I have any way of knowing what Trump is actually thinking. But have you seen anything in his pronouncements which indicates that he understands what you understand? Geez, I’d hate to think our supreme leader is economically clueless.
Another matter is the transfer payments. Those are mostly the result of Democratic Party policies, and the Trump administration will likely lower those amounts. Any comments on the short and long-term results?
As a general rule, one should always assume that politicians are economically illiterate. This includes President Trump.
That is more of an observation than a criticism, for it is simply not politically advantageous for a President especially to be an economic policy wonk. Populism and sound economic theory are pretty much mutually exclusive, and what is a win politically can be a setback economically.
This is also why the best government economic policy is to have as little policy as possible. Governments don't manage economies, they mismanage them. In Russia, in China, in Europe, and in the US, that is the eternal truth where governments and economies are concerned.
Does Trump genuinely understand the economic realities in the US? I do not know. I do know that, for the most part, his economic policies are better than any proposed alternatives. That has to be good enough, because with any President that is all we are going to ever get.
Smart analysis on grounded data - thank you!
Peter, yesterday you wrote this: “ Perhaps also true to form, Trump made the right call—Powell needs to lower interest rates—but for exactly the wrong reason. Powell does need to lower interest rates, but because the economy is not performing at all well. The real economy is doing nowhere nearly as well as the top-level GDP numbers suggest.”
This got me pondering to what extent Trump understands the actual health of the economy. For political and leadership reasons, of course he will tweet that the economic news is good. And neither you nor I have any way of knowing what Trump is actually thinking. But have you seen anything in his pronouncements which indicates that he understands what you understand? Geez, I’d hate to think our supreme leader is economically clueless.
Another matter is the transfer payments. Those are mostly the result of Democratic Party policies, and the Trump administration will likely lower those amounts. Any comments on the short and long-term results?
As a general rule, one should always assume that politicians are economically illiterate. This includes President Trump.
That is more of an observation than a criticism, for it is simply not politically advantageous for a President especially to be an economic policy wonk. Populism and sound economic theory are pretty much mutually exclusive, and what is a win politically can be a setback economically.
This is also why the best government economic policy is to have as little policy as possible. Governments don't manage economies, they mismanage them. In Russia, in China, in Europe, and in the US, that is the eternal truth where governments and economies are concerned.
Does Trump genuinely understand the economic realities in the US? I do not know. I do know that, for the most part, his economic policies are better than any proposed alternatives. That has to be good enough, because with any President that is all we are going to ever get.