The inherent problem with using threatening language and aggressive rhetoric is that there is no controlling whom might be listening, and how they might react.
Whether on the schoolyard or the world stage, the most gratifying response to tough talk is similarly tough talk.
But that doesn't make tough talk smart talk on either the schoolyard or the world stage. It's very easy to talk one's way into a fight. It's quite a bit more difficult to talk one's way out of it.
That the US and Russia were talking themselves (and each other) into war over Ukraine was an observation I made back in January.
The economic data on trade between the EU and Russia at the time made the forecast of economic consequences to war over Ukraine I think rather obvious.
However, it is important I think to recognize that the price of the war in Ukraine is every bit what I said it would be back in January, and then some.
Food price inflation has more than tripled in the European Union to over 17%
It is quite possible, perhaps even probable, that Stoltenberg is doing a quiet fist pump somewhere over his apparently successful goading of Lavrov. Between Stoltenberg and Lavrov, enough harsh words have been publicly uttered to make negotiations and diplomacy over Ukraine a non-starter of an idea for the foreseeable future. That may very well be what Stoltenberg wanted--and it may very well be that Lavrov (and also Putin) was only too happy to give it to him.
Yet as Ukrainians are facing a winter without electricity and heat, courtesy of Russian war crimes, as Europe's economy is facing collapse, as Britain's economy is likely not far behind, as Russia's economy is also seemingly on the brink of disaster (especially if the physical and market constraints on Russian hydrocarbon production and development persist, dragging their most important economic sector down for years to come), and as the whole world is heading into a likely food insecurity nightmare in 2023 due to a scary shortage of fertilizer, we should pause to realize that while talk is cheap, the consequences of talk rarely are.
The explanation is the same as its always been since the dawn of human civilization..
Power. Leaders crave it. Followers submit to it.
And what no one ever learns is that power corrupts. Power kills. Power destroys.
Stoltenberg sees the war in Ukraine as a revitalization of NATO. Lavrov sees NATO posturing over Ukraine as a road back to Russian greatness--a new Russian Empire, as it were. The pursuit of and lust for power.
People who take sides want to see the "other" side destroyed. Social media and alternative media sites are replete with "proles" who either want to see Russia obliterated for invading Ukraine, or are cheering the Russian destruction of Ukraine and are hoping that NATO fractures and collapses over Ukraine. Either way, an idolizing and fetishizing of power.
What none of them realize is that all of this genuflection to power only means that everyone will lose in the end.
Should we consider the idea that Stoltenberg got exactly the response he wanted?
We should.
Whether on the schoolyard or the world stage, the most gratifying response to tough talk is similarly tough talk.
But that doesn't make tough talk smart talk on either the schoolyard or the world stage. It's very easy to talk one's way into a fight. It's quite a bit more difficult to talk one's way out of it.
That the US and Russia were talking themselves (and each other) into war over Ukraine was an observation I made back in January.
https://newsletter.allfactsmatter.us/p/who-is-prepared-to-pay-the-price
The economic data on trade between the EU and Russia at the time made the forecast of economic consequences to war over Ukraine I think rather obvious.
However, it is important I think to recognize that the price of the war in Ukraine is every bit what I said it would be back in January, and then some.
Food price inflation has more than tripled in the European Union to over 17%
https://tradingeconomics.com/european-union/food-inflation
Food price inflation jumped by 5% in Egypt the month the war began.
https://tradingeconomics.com/egypt/food-inflation
Overall inflation in Europe surged by more than 2% from January to March, before peaking in October 10.6%, more than double January's 5.1%
https://tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/inflation-cpi
Energy prices are shredding Britain's economic supports.
https://newsletter.allfactsmatter.us/p/natural-gas-prices-are-tearing-britains
Energy prices are shuttering and possibly extinguishing much of Europe's industrial base, particularly in Germany
https://newsletter.allfactsmatter.us/p/does-germany-have-time-to-learn-the
https://newsletter.allfactsmatter.us/p/europes-odd-energy-non-crisis
Developing countries are running out of foreign reserves to buy needed goods, including oil.
https://newsletter.allfactsmatter.us/p/ghana-wants-to-buy-oil-with-gold
It is quite possible, perhaps even probable, that Stoltenberg is doing a quiet fist pump somewhere over his apparently successful goading of Lavrov. Between Stoltenberg and Lavrov, enough harsh words have been publicly uttered to make negotiations and diplomacy over Ukraine a non-starter of an idea for the foreseeable future. That may very well be what Stoltenberg wanted--and it may very well be that Lavrov (and also Putin) was only too happy to give it to him.
Yet as Ukrainians are facing a winter without electricity and heat, courtesy of Russian war crimes, as Europe's economy is facing collapse, as Britain's economy is likely not far behind, as Russia's economy is also seemingly on the brink of disaster (especially if the physical and market constraints on Russian hydrocarbon production and development persist, dragging their most important economic sector down for years to come), and as the whole world is heading into a likely food insecurity nightmare in 2023 due to a scary shortage of fertilizer, we should pause to realize that while talk is cheap, the consequences of talk rarely are.
A reasonable person would call his statements foolish.
But the war machine must feed.
There are plenty of benefits to go around, though.
Politicians get to "talk tough."
The proles get to place a flag on their social media pages.
Eventually, the populace becomes more malleable.
More willing to "sacrifice."
To compromise.
Or is there some other plausible explanation for his behavior?
The explanation is the same as its always been since the dawn of human civilization..
Power. Leaders crave it. Followers submit to it.
And what no one ever learns is that power corrupts. Power kills. Power destroys.
Stoltenberg sees the war in Ukraine as a revitalization of NATO. Lavrov sees NATO posturing over Ukraine as a road back to Russian greatness--a new Russian Empire, as it were. The pursuit of and lust for power.
People who take sides want to see the "other" side destroyed. Social media and alternative media sites are replete with "proles" who either want to see Russia obliterated for invading Ukraine, or are cheering the Russian destruction of Ukraine and are hoping that NATO fractures and collapses over Ukraine. Either way, an idolizing and fetishizing of power.
What none of them realize is that all of this genuflection to power only means that everyone will lose in the end.
Or, as Johnny Cash sang back in the 90s:
"'Cause the prophets wrote about it
And Jesus spoke about it
And John got to take a look
And he told us what he saw when it's easy to see
It's going by the book"
And the wheel keeps on turning...
I hate to say it, but this all just another "Big Show" by little fishes and Lavrov knows that game very well, very well indeed.
Remember Obama's "flexibility."