The destruction of the Nord Stream pipelines changes the strategic picture for Putin's war in Ukraine, but has little impact on Russia's ultimate geopolitical isolation that is the consequence of that war. And that geopolitical isolation means that the pipelines were not going to be much good to Putin no matter what.
Merkel made a huge strategic error allowing Germany to become dependent on Russian natural gas to the extent she did. There is no energy security when your energy sources are external.
There's even one rumor floating around that the sabotage was done as a solid to Chancellor Scholtz in Germany, taking the option of caving into Russian demands on sanctions effectively off the table. The Germans have no choice now but to see the sanctions through and tough out the winter as best they can--and once spring 2023 returns, Russia's energy leverage evaporates along with the snow.
Also, as of my latest readings on the matter there is no conclusive evidence yet put forward pointing the finger of culpability at anyone. NATO had aerial assets in the area of the sabotage, Russia had naval assets. The verbal incontinences of Biden et al are suggestive but not dispositive. Similarly, Russia's relative silence on the matter is also suggestive but not dispositive.
It will be interesting to learn what forensic evidence Sweden managed to recover from the sabotage sites. Until we know what the evidence has to say, presuming either side to be guilty is not a logically supportable position.
I do not think that Russia's energy leverage will evaporate with the snow. Germany MIGHT make it through the winter without anyone freezing to death, but only by curtailing industrial production and by depleting their gas storage facilities. Little or no fertilizer and other chemicals produced by industry over the winter means greatly reduced crop yields next year, and industrial production will be able to run at anything resembling full output next year either if they wish to refill storage again in preparation for the following winter.
The fertilizer situation for next year is already a done deal. For all intents and purposes, there won't be any--not any from Russian NatGas, at any rate. With 2023's fertilizer outlook pretty much already decided, that removes any leverage Russia might have in that regard.
Storage is a question of where can they get natural gas throughout next summer in preparation for next winter. And they have between now and next summer to work that out.
Whether German industry can survive while alternate sources of petroleum and natural gas are obtained is debatable, but if German gets through the winter then 2023 will be all about making that transition faster than anyone would ever have thought possible--or their complete dissolution as a modern industrial society.
But here's the thing: for Russia, both scenarios lead to the same outcome: no future sales of Russian natural gas. Russia's pipeline problem is that their pipeline network is optimized for delivering oil and especially NatGas to a customer that, going forward, won't be buying, one way or another.
As we have already seen from the pandemic lockdowns, once supply chains rupture, merely reopening the trade conduits doesn't bring the flows of materials and goods back online. And with Russia's pipeline network largely moving product west and not east--which is going to be the case for the foreseeable future (remember, Power of Siberia 2 has a projected completion date of 2030, and that's assuming everything goes well)--Russia's primary export, that of oil and natural gas, is going to slow to a trickle of pre-war volumes.
There may be a pathway back to the status quo ante, but I doubt it.
Biden already eluded to blowing up the pipeline some months ago when asked. ..Putin has nothing to gain blowing up his own cash cow...as far as changing his goals of the war? Idk...He wants the bio labs away from his territory ( if I was him him so would I)
He is tired of seeing the Ukrainian/ Russian people being slaughtered by the Azkov Nazi army and quite frankly dumbass Zelensky and all his predicessors never filed their border registration since 1993 since the Minsk awards so technically Ukraine is still Russia....so really Putin is being quite patient with all this.. As far as Slow Joe? We ALL KNOW BIDEN is a puppet so it doesn't matter how delusional he is. Someone else is really running the show DOWN in the basement....hummm maybe Obama 🤔
The pipelines were a cash cow to Russia--right up until the start of the war.
That's where the analysis gets murky. The question is not what has the pipelines' historical value to Russia been, but what will their future value be, given the sanctions and given the increasing geopolitical isolation Russia is experiencing.
It would not be irrational for Putin to conclude that the economic benefits of the pipelines going forward were either zero or close to zero, that Europe was bound and determined to wean itself off Russian energy. Under those circumstances, Putin blowing up the pipeline as a false flag operation (similar to what many suspect is the reality behind the 1999 Moscow apartment bombings, which Putin as Prime Minister used as a pretext for the Second Chechen War) is not out of the realm of possibility.
Unless and until the forensic evidence points more to one country than another, insisting on any government, administration or regime as the saboteur is simply speculation not supported by good evidence.
Look for Chine to offer to build more pipeline capacity in and around Russia. Gaining control in countries’ infrastructure is a key to China’s global expansion and control. Russia may have to capitulate. China could stand to benefit more than anyone by the sabotage in nordstream while keeping Western Europe in a huge energy crisis. Sustainable energy like solar and Ev will keep Western Europe in the China-sphere as well. More energy infrastructure control. Difference between Russia and Europe is that Europe has chosen its sustainable energy path hence its reliance on China. Where we are I. The US is a huge fight for our sovereign natural resources to keep us independent of China’s international totalitarian nightmare. Drill baby drill!!!!
China investing in Russia is something China has been extremely reluctant to do. Given the state of both their economies and the rising defaults on BRI loans, right now it is by no means certain China has the wherewithal to finance new pipelines in Russia.
Russia foot the bill on Power of Siberia 1 and I believe they will be footing the bill on Power of Siberia 2. $55 billion on Power of Siberia 1 and China still buys more natural gas from Turkmenistan.
The motif of China and Russia having this close cozy relationship with China bankrolling Putin is more a narrative fiction than an expression of substantive fact. Right now they're still more like two porcupines trying to kiss.
China is trying to exert influence overseas, but China has never been good at either foreign policy or power projection. Culturally, I doubt it even understands those concepts (else it would have never beached and burnt the Great Treasure Fleet at the end of the Ming Dynasty).
The only 2 serious actors? Biden would never say out loud, he’d take out this pipeline, oops...he did. Kirby would never make an announcement that it was a wonderful opportunity...opps he did too. They’re evil actors all around us, American citizens wouldn’t dream their government could be capable of such evilness. Really? The last 100yrs has taught people absolutely nothing. It’s nothing less than regime change (also said out loud,) in Russia, even if it takes a nuclear war to get there. What happens after regime change? Biden installs a puppet government with more nuclear weapons than the US. What could possibly go wrong?
Too bad the Biden regime blew up the Nord pipeline..need to get the clown out of office before he gets us in a war with someone....
The destruction of the Nord Stream pipelines changes the strategic picture for Putin's war in Ukraine, but has little impact on Russia's ultimate geopolitical isolation that is the consequence of that war. And that geopolitical isolation means that the pipelines were not going to be much good to Putin no matter what.
Merkel made a huge strategic error allowing Germany to become dependent on Russian natural gas to the extent she did. There is no energy security when your energy sources are external.
There's even one rumor floating around that the sabotage was done as a solid to Chancellor Scholtz in Germany, taking the option of caving into Russian demands on sanctions effectively off the table. The Germans have no choice now but to see the sanctions through and tough out the winter as best they can--and once spring 2023 returns, Russia's energy leverage evaporates along with the snow.
Also, as of my latest readings on the matter there is no conclusive evidence yet put forward pointing the finger of culpability at anyone. NATO had aerial assets in the area of the sabotage, Russia had naval assets. The verbal incontinences of Biden et al are suggestive but not dispositive. Similarly, Russia's relative silence on the matter is also suggestive but not dispositive.
It will be interesting to learn what forensic evidence Sweden managed to recover from the sabotage sites. Until we know what the evidence has to say, presuming either side to be guilty is not a logically supportable position.
I do not think that Russia's energy leverage will evaporate with the snow. Germany MIGHT make it through the winter without anyone freezing to death, but only by curtailing industrial production and by depleting their gas storage facilities. Little or no fertilizer and other chemicals produced by industry over the winter means greatly reduced crop yields next year, and industrial production will be able to run at anything resembling full output next year either if they wish to refill storage again in preparation for the following winter.
The fertilizer situation for next year is already a done deal. For all intents and purposes, there won't be any--not any from Russian NatGas, at any rate. With 2023's fertilizer outlook pretty much already decided, that removes any leverage Russia might have in that regard.
Storage is a question of where can they get natural gas throughout next summer in preparation for next winter. And they have between now and next summer to work that out.
Whether German industry can survive while alternate sources of petroleum and natural gas are obtained is debatable, but if German gets through the winter then 2023 will be all about making that transition faster than anyone would ever have thought possible--or their complete dissolution as a modern industrial society.
But here's the thing: for Russia, both scenarios lead to the same outcome: no future sales of Russian natural gas. Russia's pipeline problem is that their pipeline network is optimized for delivering oil and especially NatGas to a customer that, going forward, won't be buying, one way or another.
As we have already seen from the pandemic lockdowns, once supply chains rupture, merely reopening the trade conduits doesn't bring the flows of materials and goods back online. And with Russia's pipeline network largely moving product west and not east--which is going to be the case for the foreseeable future (remember, Power of Siberia 2 has a projected completion date of 2030, and that's assuming everything goes well)--Russia's primary export, that of oil and natural gas, is going to slow to a trickle of pre-war volumes.
There may be a pathway back to the status quo ante, but I doubt it.
Biden already eluded to blowing up the pipeline some months ago when asked. ..Putin has nothing to gain blowing up his own cash cow...as far as changing his goals of the war? Idk...He wants the bio labs away from his territory ( if I was him him so would I)
He is tired of seeing the Ukrainian/ Russian people being slaughtered by the Azkov Nazi army and quite frankly dumbass Zelensky and all his predicessors never filed their border registration since 1993 since the Minsk awards so technically Ukraine is still Russia....so really Putin is being quite patient with all this.. As far as Slow Joe? We ALL KNOW BIDEN is a puppet so it doesn't matter how delusional he is. Someone else is really running the show DOWN in the basement....hummm maybe Obama 🤔
The pipelines were a cash cow to Russia--right up until the start of the war.
That's where the analysis gets murky. The question is not what has the pipelines' historical value to Russia been, but what will their future value be, given the sanctions and given the increasing geopolitical isolation Russia is experiencing.
It would not be irrational for Putin to conclude that the economic benefits of the pipelines going forward were either zero or close to zero, that Europe was bound and determined to wean itself off Russian energy. Under those circumstances, Putin blowing up the pipeline as a false flag operation (similar to what many suspect is the reality behind the 1999 Moscow apartment bombings, which Putin as Prime Minister used as a pretext for the Second Chechen War) is not out of the realm of possibility.
Unless and until the forensic evidence points more to one country than another, insisting on any government, administration or regime as the saboteur is simply speculation not supported by good evidence.
Look for Chine to offer to build more pipeline capacity in and around Russia. Gaining control in countries’ infrastructure is a key to China’s global expansion and control. Russia may have to capitulate. China could stand to benefit more than anyone by the sabotage in nordstream while keeping Western Europe in a huge energy crisis. Sustainable energy like solar and Ev will keep Western Europe in the China-sphere as well. More energy infrastructure control. Difference between Russia and Europe is that Europe has chosen its sustainable energy path hence its reliance on China. Where we are I. The US is a huge fight for our sovereign natural resources to keep us independent of China’s international totalitarian nightmare. Drill baby drill!!!!
China investing in Russia is something China has been extremely reluctant to do. Given the state of both their economies and the rising defaults on BRI loans, right now it is by no means certain China has the wherewithal to finance new pipelines in Russia.
Russia foot the bill on Power of Siberia 1 and I believe they will be footing the bill on Power of Siberia 2. $55 billion on Power of Siberia 1 and China still buys more natural gas from Turkmenistan.
The motif of China and Russia having this close cozy relationship with China bankrolling Putin is more a narrative fiction than an expression of substantive fact. Right now they're still more like two porcupines trying to kiss.
Thanks for the reply! I was just having an out loud brainstorm. I learn a ton from you.
Seems like china is always quietly working and massaging the world to their preferred shape. Just like the US has done forever so I was spitballing.
China is trying to exert influence overseas, but China has never been good at either foreign policy or power projection. Culturally, I doubt it even understands those concepts (else it would have never beached and burnt the Great Treasure Fleet at the end of the Ming Dynasty).
The only 2 serious actors? Biden would never say out loud, he’d take out this pipeline, oops...he did. Kirby would never make an announcement that it was a wonderful opportunity...opps he did too. They’re evil actors all around us, American citizens wouldn’t dream their government could be capable of such evilness. Really? The last 100yrs has taught people absolutely nothing. It’s nothing less than regime change (also said out loud,) in Russia, even if it takes a nuclear war to get there. What happens after regime change? Biden installs a puppet government with more nuclear weapons than the US. What could possibly go wrong?
Jeezus...