9 Comments

Thanks very much for this analysis.

It is hard to see how Russia or China (with sanctions if it invades Taiwan) could maintain existing machinery or build new machinery for all types of production, and for many defense purposes (at least to build the weapons, even if the weapons have no electronics inside them) when they are cut off from

the rest of the world's semiconductors and other electronic components.

Many components are built in exactly one place - not in Russia or China. Electronic designs need a large number of different components, which are highly specific in electrical behaviour and physical package dimensions. Without even one component, the final product can't be made.

The most advanced CPUs do not come from China - and Russia has only a very small, antiquated, semiconductor industry which produces a few exotic parts.

For a country to be productive, it has to be able to access the latest end-products and often the latest components.

This makes the idea of China or Russia actually attacking anyone the rest of the world cares about a really bad idea. Since there is such corruption, malfeasance and ineptitude in politicians, this fact does not mean that such attacks will not proceed. Exhibit 1: Ukraine.

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If the data is from America, then most likely to be manipulated to fit the narrative. Russia has lot of food , American government are killing the farmer and food supply.

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