Signs Of Recession: This House Not For Sale

The US Census and Department of Housing And Urban Development added to the list of economic signals screaming recession yesterday, with their Monthly New Residential Sales Report for July, which showed house sales dropping significantly both month-on-month and year-on-year.

Sales of new single‐family houses in July 2022 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 511,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.   This is 12.6 percent (±16.9 percent)* below the revised June rate of 585,000 and is 29.6 percent (±10.9 percent) below the July 2021 estimate of 726,000

Putting the figures in historical perspective, July’s sales numbers were the lowest monthly rate since December, 2018, and the lowest annual rate since January, 2016.

At current sales rates, the supply of new homes on the market would take 10.9 months to sell—the highest level since March, 2009.

The Federal Reserve does not consider these sales figures to be recessionary signals. As for what that says about the Federal Reserve’s grasp of economic reality in the US, I leave for the reader to decide.