Sep 30, 2022·edited Sep 30, 2022Liked by Peter Nayland Kust

One point I had not considered is this may actually save Gazprom. If Gazprom doesn't deliver because of some fake excuse (remember the oil leaks story) because Puttin wants to punish Germany for its support to Ukraine, then Gazprom needs to pay a breach-of-contract fee. If the pipe breaks they don't.

Russia will be fine regardless. The world needs gas. In a year or two everybody is happily taking Russia's gas again. Also one pipeline was never in use, so effectively they lost only one line (2 of 4 pipes).

In the short run this helps Russia as it can now claim it is under attack from the West/US. Regardless on whether that is true or it was self-sabotage or a random 3rd actor, this helps them domestically where things are not peachy. Russia cannot afford to think long term, as short term things are very critical. If it doesn't have some sort of win in Ukraine in a few months, Russia and its military loses face also in China, Iran, etc. It hence desperately needs to get its domestic house in order to pull of the current draft and longer war. Just realize many of these draftees will be coming back in bodypacks in the next few months, and things may get very hot politically.

Any distraction is very welcome.

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Being in Sweden's or Denmark's Economic Zones, there was probably surveillance so more information should be forthcoming as to the perps. Not that that will change anything, bit late, and also indicative that there's no limits to this war on the world.

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