"Two of these four are in Sweden's exclusive economic zone," coast guard spokesperson Jenny Larsson told the newspaper.
The two other holes are in the Danish exclusive economic zone.
With multiple holes in the pipeline conduits, should seawater enter at all four points, corrosion has the potential to render an extensive section of the pipeline unusable, effectively ensuring neither Nord Stream 1 nor Nord Stream 2 will be brought online in 2023, no matter the outcome in Ukraine.
This begs the question of what becomes of Russia’s natural gas exporting capacity, with two major pipelines all but permanently unusable. No matter what happens in Ukraine, Europe is now facing a winter and then a 2023 without much in the way of Russian natural gas.
With that long an absence from the European market, can Gazprom find alternate customers to replace European ones at scale?
Sep 30, 2022·edited Sep 30, 2022Liked by Peter Nayland Kust
One point I had not considered is this may actually save Gazprom. If Gazprom doesn't deliver because of some fake excuse (remember the oil leaks story) because Puttin wants to punish Germany for its support to Ukraine, then Gazprom needs to pay a breach-of-contract fee. If the pipe breaks they don't.
Russia will be fine regardless. The world needs gas. In a year or two everybody is happily taking Russia's gas again. Also one pipeline was never in use, so effectively they lost only one line (2 of 4 pipes).
In the short run this helps Russia as it can now claim it is under attack from the West/US. Regardless on whether that is true or it was self-sabotage or a random 3rd actor, this helps them domestically where things are not peachy. Russia cannot afford to think long term, as short term things are very critical. If it doesn't have some sort of win in Ukraine in a few months, Russia and its military loses face also in China, Iran, etc. It hence desperately needs to get its domestic house in order to pull of the current draft and longer war. Just realize many of these draftees will be coming back in bodypacks in the next few months, and things may get very hot politically.
You've it on one of the oddities of the attack: had this explosion occurred a week earlier, before Putin's mobilization announcement, he could have easily played it in his speech as an attack on Mother Russia, and that would have been very helpful in overcoming public resistance to the mobilization (Russia's young men are not eager to die for Putin, but will stay to defend Russia if the country is attacked).
What's fascinating about it now is that, as of yesterday afternoon, Russian media had not been playing that "attack on Russia" card. Neither RIA Novosti, RBC, nor Kommersant had anything strong in that regard--even the reports of US military helicopters sortieing through the are of the sabotage earlier this month seemed to get more coverage in Arab independent media than in Russian media. Russia's narrative line right now is the "UN must investigate"--which is not only strangely reticent, particularly after Putin's "NATO is attacking Russia" hyperbole during his mobilization speech but also downplays the attack to the Russian people.
At this juncture, there are no prime suspects in this attack, because everyone is suspect. Within the alternative media, particularly on Zero Hedge, where being pro-Russia is almost something of a cult, the prevailing sentiment is that the US did it because Ukraine is losing the war; people are convincing themselves who the guilty state actor is based largely on their preexisting biases and not on anything resembling conclusive facts and evidence.
Being in Sweden's or Denmark's Economic Zones, there was probably surveillance so more information should be forthcoming as to the perps. Not that that will change anything, bit late, and also indicative that there's no limits to this war on the world.
One point I had not considered is this may actually save Gazprom. If Gazprom doesn't deliver because of some fake excuse (remember the oil leaks story) because Puttin wants to punish Germany for its support to Ukraine, then Gazprom needs to pay a breach-of-contract fee. If the pipe breaks they don't.
Russia will be fine regardless. The world needs gas. In a year or two everybody is happily taking Russia's gas again. Also one pipeline was never in use, so effectively they lost only one line (2 of 4 pipes).
In the short run this helps Russia as it can now claim it is under attack from the West/US. Regardless on whether that is true or it was self-sabotage or a random 3rd actor, this helps them domestically where things are not peachy. Russia cannot afford to think long term, as short term things are very critical. If it doesn't have some sort of win in Ukraine in a few months, Russia and its military loses face also in China, Iran, etc. It hence desperately needs to get its domestic house in order to pull of the current draft and longer war. Just realize many of these draftees will be coming back in bodypacks in the next few months, and things may get very hot politically.
Any distraction is very welcome.
You've it on one of the oddities of the attack: had this explosion occurred a week earlier, before Putin's mobilization announcement, he could have easily played it in his speech as an attack on Mother Russia, and that would have been very helpful in overcoming public resistance to the mobilization (Russia's young men are not eager to die for Putin, but will stay to defend Russia if the country is attacked).
What's fascinating about it now is that, as of yesterday afternoon, Russian media had not been playing that "attack on Russia" card. Neither RIA Novosti, RBC, nor Kommersant had anything strong in that regard--even the reports of US military helicopters sortieing through the are of the sabotage earlier this month seemed to get more coverage in Arab independent media than in Russian media. Russia's narrative line right now is the "UN must investigate"--which is not only strangely reticent, particularly after Putin's "NATO is attacking Russia" hyperbole during his mobilization speech but also downplays the attack to the Russian people.
At this juncture, there are no prime suspects in this attack, because everyone is suspect. Within the alternative media, particularly on Zero Hedge, where being pro-Russia is almost something of a cult, the prevailing sentiment is that the US did it because Ukraine is losing the war; people are convincing themselves who the guilty state actor is based largely on their preexisting biases and not on anything resembling conclusive facts and evidence.
Being in Sweden's or Denmark's Economic Zones, there was probably surveillance so more information should be forthcoming as to the perps. Not that that will change anything, bit late, and also indicative that there's no limits to this war on the world.