I’m excited. There are optimistic possibilities here, and signs that the Middle East is moving in the right direction. God bless President Trump!
“With a missile strike that seemed almost performative, it is difficult not to conclude that Iran is ready for this war to end. It certainly has not gone well for them.” The Iranian top dogs have been pretty NON-performative. Perhaps it’s a case of projectile dysfunction. If so, no wonder they went ballistic. (Yup, bad puns; I’m posting too early in the morning again.)
“Not packing a punch” was my reaction, too. I read a quote by an Iranian top dog yesterday saying their retaliation would be “remembered by the world for centuries”, or something to that effect. Lobbing a mess of missiles - most of them intercepted - is nothing the world is going to remember for centuries. Was it hyperbole, or are there greater attacks to come? I guess we can only stay tuned…
“Not packing a punch” was my reaction, too. I read a quote by an Iranian top dog yesterday saying their retaliation would be “remembered by the world for centuries”, or something to that effect. Lobbing a mess of missiles - most of them intercepted - is nothing the world is going to remember for centuries. Was it hyperbole, or are there greater attacks to come? I guess we can only stay tuned…
I'm interested in your thoughts on whether Trump would have done anything different if Powell had lowered interest rates. Meaning, is this Iran stuff economic or what? What do we ( the US and our allies) stand to gain by it? Call me suspicious, but I know that decisions like this often have multiple layers of motivation. Or was it just time for a shakeup? History is full of them.
Iran has been wounded badly; how severe is open to question at this time.
Your reply to my comment on another post regarding activating asymmetrical operations is correct. Iran has both impact and operational questions to resolve. The optics are important.
An asymmetrical proxy attack would have better operational success and optics in a Middle East location. If conducted anywhere else in the world; success in creating mayhem may be good, the optics would go against Iran.
As a nation, Iran must balance that against further retaliation by the US and Israel. Currently, we have uncontested control of Iranian airspace. While both Russia and China could help Iran; both countries are weighing thier increased involvement against US economic sanctions.
"...the possibility is growing that Iran has been dealt an even more devastating defeat than the reporting thus far suggests is the case."
Wishful thinking I suspect. There is talk that Iran removed most of the uranium from Fordow a few days before the strike. If so, they may take a few days/weeks, months maybe, to cobble together, at the very least, a dirty bomb.
A dirty bomb is a real possibility, and a frightening one. A conventional warhead infused with highly enriched uranium could be quite damaging to Tel Aviv or Jerusalem.
But if they do mount a radiological attack, they also legitimize every concern Trump and Netanyahu have articulated about Iran's nuclear weapons program.
There is a certain taboo surrounding nuclear and radiological weapons. Since the end of WW2, they have been used only as a strategic threat and deterrent. I'm not sure the world would respond well to the country which violates that taboo.
I mean the Iranians would have had to be stupid to just leave it lying there when they knew Fordow was a priority target. I'm sure they took as much out of the facility as they feasibly could. The real question is how much damage was done to the equipment, particularly the centrifuges the Iranians had to leave behind.
Based on IAEA assessments, Iran's store of highly enriched uranium was at 60%. It needs to be at 90% to be weapons grade.
At 60%, Iran has the makings of a number of radiological weapons.
At 60%, Iran has the makings of zero nuclear weapons.
Without the centrifuge cascades at Fordow and Natanz, Iran cannot get the 60% to 90%. That means that no matter what Iran says about how severe or superficial the damage is at those sites, if the centrifuges are not in operation, the damage is catastrophic for Iran.
Even from the apocalyptic viewpoint of fanatical Twelver Shi'a Islam, even a slew of radiological terror attacks around the globe is not likely to get Iran what it wants. The only thing it would likely accomplish is becoming the ultimate pariah state, oil or no oil.
From every scenario, an Iran reduced to a terrorist entity like Hamas or Hezbollah is quite the climbdown for the mullahs.
Thanks for the update, Peter. I am truly surprised to hear that oil prices retreated to previous levels! It makes me wonder what the oil traders know that the rest of us don’t…
Oil traders respond moment by moment. What they know is that Iran isn't swinging back yet. When Iran does respond oil prices will spike again. I suspect how much they spike will be dependent on how long it takes for Iran to respond.
I’m excited. There are optimistic possibilities here, and signs that the Middle East is moving in the right direction. God bless President Trump!
“With a missile strike that seemed almost performative, it is difficult not to conclude that Iran is ready for this war to end. It certainly has not gone well for them.” The Iranian top dogs have been pretty NON-performative. Perhaps it’s a case of projectile dysfunction. If so, no wonder they went ballistic. (Yup, bad puns; I’m posting too early in the morning again.)
“Not packing a punch” was my reaction, too. I read a quote by an Iranian top dog yesterday saying their retaliation would be “remembered by the world for centuries”, or something to that effect. Lobbing a mess of missiles - most of them intercepted - is nothing the world is going to remember for centuries. Was it hyperbole, or are there greater attacks to come? I guess we can only stay tuned…
“Not packing a punch” was my reaction, too. I read a quote by an Iranian top dog yesterday saying their retaliation would be “remembered by the world for centuries”, or something to that effect. Lobbing a mess of missiles - most of them intercepted - is nothing the world is going to remember for centuries. Was it hyperbole, or are there greater attacks to come? I guess we can only stay tuned…
I'm interested in your thoughts on whether Trump would have done anything different if Powell had lowered interest rates. Meaning, is this Iran stuff economic or what? What do we ( the US and our allies) stand to gain by it? Call me suspicious, but I know that decisions like this often have multiple layers of motivation. Or was it just time for a shakeup? History is full of them.
Trump has been adamant about Iran not getting nuclear weapons since 2011 at least. The regime was not likely to ever give up enrichment on its own.
This attack was always going to happen. The only question has been the timing.
Iran has been wounded badly; how severe is open to question at this time.
Your reply to my comment on another post regarding activating asymmetrical operations is correct. Iran has both impact and operational questions to resolve. The optics are important.
An asymmetrical proxy attack would have better operational success and optics in a Middle East location. If conducted anywhere else in the world; success in creating mayhem may be good, the optics would go against Iran.
As a nation, Iran must balance that against further retaliation by the US and Israel. Currently, we have uncontested control of Iranian airspace. While both Russia and China could help Iran; both countries are weighing thier increased involvement against US economic sanctions.
"...the possibility is growing that Iran has been dealt an even more devastating defeat than the reporting thus far suggests is the case."
Wishful thinking I suspect. There is talk that Iran removed most of the uranium from Fordow a few days before the strike. If so, they may take a few days/weeks, months maybe, to cobble together, at the very least, a dirty bomb.
A dirty bomb is a real possibility, and a frightening one. A conventional warhead infused with highly enriched uranium could be quite damaging to Tel Aviv or Jerusalem.
But if they do mount a radiological attack, they also legitimize every concern Trump and Netanyahu have articulated about Iran's nuclear weapons program.
There is a certain taboo surrounding nuclear and radiological weapons. Since the end of WW2, they have been used only as a strategic threat and deterrent. I'm not sure the world would respond well to the country which violates that taboo.
I mean the Iranians would have had to be stupid to just leave it lying there when they knew Fordow was a priority target. I'm sure they took as much out of the facility as they feasibly could. The real question is how much damage was done to the equipment, particularly the centrifuges the Iranians had to leave behind.
Based on IAEA assessments, Iran's store of highly enriched uranium was at 60%. It needs to be at 90% to be weapons grade.
At 60%, Iran has the makings of a number of radiological weapons.
At 60%, Iran has the makings of zero nuclear weapons.
Without the centrifuge cascades at Fordow and Natanz, Iran cannot get the 60% to 90%. That means that no matter what Iran says about how severe or superficial the damage is at those sites, if the centrifuges are not in operation, the damage is catastrophic for Iran.
Even from the apocalyptic viewpoint of fanatical Twelver Shi'a Islam, even a slew of radiological terror attacks around the globe is not likely to get Iran what it wants. The only thing it would likely accomplish is becoming the ultimate pariah state, oil or no oil.
From every scenario, an Iran reduced to a terrorist entity like Hamas or Hezbollah is quite the climbdown for the mullahs.
Thanks for the update, Peter. I am truly surprised to hear that oil prices retreated to previous levels! It makes me wonder what the oil traders know that the rest of us don’t…
Oil traders respond moment by moment. What they know is that Iran isn't swinging back yet. When Iran does respond oil prices will spike again. I suspect how much they spike will be dependent on how long it takes for Iran to respond.
You are so intelligent!
Just experienced 😉