Is the BLS jobs data massaged? Yes—it has to be, if only to address the effects of seasonal fluctuations in labor. Yet the true significance in the jobs data—whether obtained from the BLS Employment Situation Summary or the ADP National Employment Report—lies in the trends that data reveals. While any individual month’s numbers are to a degree problematic, it is in the trends charted by those numbers that we are able to see if the employment situation in this country is getting better or worse.
The jobs data is massaged. The trends not so much.
Links And Sources
December Employment Situation Summary (BLS): https://archive.ph/KjkOT
National Employment Report (ADP): https://archive.ph/sqFLl
All Employees, Total Nonfarm: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1CRgW
All Employees, Total Nonfarm: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1CRfE
Total Nonfarm Payroll Employment: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1CRgY
Total Nonfarm Payroll Employment: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1CQUm
All Employees, Total Private: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1CQZj
ADP vs BLS Unadjusted and Indexed, 2010-2024: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1CRCj
ADP vs BLS, Unadjusted, 2024: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1CRhj
Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment For Manufacturing: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1CRhK
All Employees, Manufacturing: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1CRi5
ADP vs BLS, Manufacturing, 2021-2024: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1CRik
ADP vs BLS, Construction, 2021-2024: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1CRiZ
ADP vs BLS, Trade, Transportation, And Utilities, 2021-2024: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1CRj2
ADP vs BLS, Private Education And Health Services, 2021-2024: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1CRj3
ADP vs BLS, Leisure And Hospitality, 2021-2024 : https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1CRj6
ADP vs BLS, Professional And Business Services, 2021-2024 : : https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1CRj9
ADP vs BLS, Seasonal, Indexed 2021-2024: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1CRls
ADP vs Establishment Survey vs Household Survey, Seasonal, Indexed, 2021-2024:
BLS Employment Level, Part-Time for Economic Reasons: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1CRlZ
BLS Unemployment Level: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1CRla
Share this post