The corporate media reporting on the jobs outlook in this country is definitely propagandistic. The Employment Situation Summary itself is merely a product of a bureaucracy.
There are clear biases in the report—that’s obvious from the skewing of the seasonal chart to the top of the seasonal range. However, as a purely analytical ex…
The corporate media reporting on the jobs outlook in this country is definitely propagandistic. The Employment Situation Summary itself is merely a product of a bureaucracy.
There are clear biases in the report—that’s obvious from the skewing of the seasonal chart to the top of the seasonal range. However, as a purely analytical exercise, we can’t automatically conclude that the optimistic skewing within the BLS reporting is inherently less reliable than the more conservative and pessimistic skewing within the ADP report. Both are examples of reporting bias within the seasonal adjustments.
While the Employment Situation Summary has a number of structural defects—not for nothing do I accuse the BLS of engaging in Lou Costello Labor Math—the broad shape of the various labor trends, particularly as we drill down into the various employment sectors, are considerably more difficult to fudge or obscure. Even when it appears probable that the numbers in a particular month are the result of goal-seeking by the BLS, that overall trend is simply no easy thing to obscure. This is why I incorporate longer term trending in my analyses—that’s where I see the true value of the report.
There is a lot of propaganda and BS surrounding the jobs report, and a fair bit of BS within the jobs report. But there is also useful and valuable information to be found, if one is willing to peel back the layers.
Corporate media does not like to peel back the layers. I do—but that’s what makes me a nerd! ;)
Thanks!
The corporate media reporting on the jobs outlook in this country is definitely propagandistic. The Employment Situation Summary itself is merely a product of a bureaucracy.
There are clear biases in the report—that’s obvious from the skewing of the seasonal chart to the top of the seasonal range. However, as a purely analytical exercise, we can’t automatically conclude that the optimistic skewing within the BLS reporting is inherently less reliable than the more conservative and pessimistic skewing within the ADP report. Both are examples of reporting bias within the seasonal adjustments.
While the Employment Situation Summary has a number of structural defects—not for nothing do I accuse the BLS of engaging in Lou Costello Labor Math—the broad shape of the various labor trends, particularly as we drill down into the various employment sectors, are considerably more difficult to fudge or obscure. Even when it appears probable that the numbers in a particular month are the result of goal-seeking by the BLS, that overall trend is simply no easy thing to obscure. This is why I incorporate longer term trending in my analyses—that’s where I see the true value of the report.
There is a lot of propaganda and BS surrounding the jobs report, and a fair bit of BS within the jobs report. But there is also useful and valuable information to be found, if one is willing to peel back the layers.
Corporate media does not like to peel back the layers. I do—but that’s what makes me a nerd! ;)
A very valuable nerd, very valuable indeed!
And also, thanks for the restack, Peter.