Well said. But in many words. What many of us have said many times in fewer words is: what we can know, the enemy can know and the enemy must not know so we must not know - and that is all for the best … 😳👍🏻🤣😂🤣
I retired in 2023 and I sold polyethylene and polypropylene in bulk, truckloads,and export for 40 years. It is a commodity. I guess your logic is about downstream markets. Trust me, no one buys these items on the come. They do raise the price of what is in their inventory. Customer forget if you do them a favor in a tight market. Last Week I talked to the big cheese at one of the world’s biggest brokers, and he is not loading up.🙂
Different commodities have different purchasing dynamics.
Crude oil must be refined before it can be used commercially. That impacts who is in the market to buy it and what their buying patterns are.
Diesel is a major refined product from that crude oil. Once refined it goes through its own distribution chain until it winds up in the fuel tanks of cargo-hauling transport.
In the United States, the retail price of Ultra-Low-Sulfur No. 2 Diesel is up 60% from pre-war levels as of the beginning of April.
That is a ginormous increase in shipping costs for cargo hauled over the road in just over a month.
Globally, the spot market for diesel shows similar movements, and indicates similar price shocks impacting transportation particularly.
There is a price and supply shock hitting the global economy already. That is not in dispute. The longer the Strait of Hormuz is closed the greater the impact of that shock, and the greater the damage to economies around the world. Words like "stagflation" are not inappropriate at this time.
Is it economic Armageddon? Not yet, and possibly not ever. If the Strait is reopened quickly not at all.
Is it economic crisis? Absolutely, and the crisis is getting worse.
Is this a geopolitical master stroke by Donald Trump? It's hard to see how that's true.
Is this a world problem that many nations are simply refusing to address? Demonstrably so, and the passivity in the face of crisis is both perplexing and alarming.
This article brings to mind the Kremlinologists during the cold war. Once we had access to their archives in the early 90s, the experts were shown to be decisively wrong. Similarly, our experts don't seem to understand Iran's motivations or likely responses. Took me a while to make that connection.
I hadn't thought of that comparison directly, but you make an interesting point.
One thing analysts seem unable to do these days is check assumptions. Facts are interpreted according to a narrative framework, but the question is rarely asked if the narrative framework makes sense.
The end result is a slew of conclusions—not just about Iran, but also economics and domestic politics—that end up fundamentally at odds with what actually happens.
Peter, you reported this morning that Kuwait, the UAE, and Bahrain have all been fired upon by Iran since the ceasefire agreement. Aren’t these attacks considered breaches of the ceasefire?
I believe Iran stated these were responses to Israel's continued strikes on Lebanon. Iran's 10 points extends the ceasefire to Lebanon and Iran's regional proxies.
I think some of the outcomes, and it is already happening, is opening fossil fuel exploration in Europe and Asia and Asia Pacific. Pipelines and maybe rail infrastructure to circumvent choke points. Countries seeking alternatives to the Middle East. More storage capacity, building processing for petrochemical products closer to home. I suspect lots of countries are considering all kinds of changes.
It’s unclear whether this ceasefire will even start, let alone whether it will hold. Missiles and bombs kept flying in all directions all night and all day. Iran has just stated no ceasefire without a Lebanon ceasefire.
The problem of course is that the US is unable to negotiate or de-escalate without Israeli permission. Israel holds a permanent veto over US foreign policy.
I think a LOT of experts correctly predicted that Trump would bluster and then TACO. This was the mother of all blusters, followed by the mother of all TACOs.
This is so crazy, and unless the nuclear option is nuked there is no safety, and where are the cries for all the citizens being slaughtered in Iran? So horrible. It's far from over, according to Amir Tsarfati who has quick intel before any headlines https://tlgrm.eu/channels/@beholdisraelchannel
"China and Russia at the UN announced their intention to provide extensive aid to Iran within the next 24 hours, claiming that it is assistance for the country's reconstruction and not for the arms industry. However, according to reports in the Russian media, China has already sent 3 cargo ships carrying weapons, while Russian military aid planes are currently on their way to Isfahan. And military aid planes from Belarus are on their way to Tehran!"
Thank God for Israel and that we support them, and God have mercy on us, I am thankful but I'm also sad - so what was the point - we did not achieve any significant and meaningful objectives?
Ultimately, the butchery of the people of Iran has to be addressed by the people of Iran. If they do not find a way to replace the regime, is it really the task of the rest of the world to do it for them?
China presumably rearmed Iran after the Twelve Day War. Those arms did not have any meaningful impact this time, nor did the Russian weapons during the Twelve Day War.
Has anything been achieved? Trump will say yes, and those who oppose Trump will say no.
Will the ceasefire turn into lasting peace for the region? It could.
Will Russia and China exploit an opportunity? They will try.
What's next? Nobody knows, even those who insist otherwise.
Well said. But in many words. What many of us have said many times in fewer words is: what we can know, the enemy can know and the enemy must not know so we must not know - and that is all for the best … 😳👍🏻🤣😂🤣
I retired in 2023 and I sold polyethylene and polypropylene in bulk, truckloads,and export for 40 years. It is a commodity. I guess your logic is about downstream markets. Trust me, no one buys these items on the come. They do raise the price of what is in their inventory. Customer forget if you do them a favor in a tight market. Last Week I talked to the big cheese at one of the world’s biggest brokers, and he is not loading up.🙂
Different commodities have different purchasing dynamics.
Crude oil must be refined before it can be used commercially. That impacts who is in the market to buy it and what their buying patterns are.
Diesel is a major refined product from that crude oil. Once refined it goes through its own distribution chain until it winds up in the fuel tanks of cargo-hauling transport.
In the United States, the retail price of Ultra-Low-Sulfur No. 2 Diesel is up 60% from pre-war levels as of the beginning of April.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?graph_id=1584179
That is a ginormous increase in shipping costs for cargo hauled over the road in just over a month.
Globally, the spot market for diesel shows similar movements, and indicates similar price shocks impacting transportation particularly.
There is a price and supply shock hitting the global economy already. That is not in dispute. The longer the Strait of Hormuz is closed the greater the impact of that shock, and the greater the damage to economies around the world. Words like "stagflation" are not inappropriate at this time.
Is it economic Armageddon? Not yet, and possibly not ever. If the Strait is reopened quickly not at all.
Is it economic crisis? Absolutely, and the crisis is getting worse.
Is this a geopolitical master stroke by Donald Trump? It's hard to see how that's true.
Is this a world problem that many nations are simply refusing to address? Demonstrably so, and the passivity in the face of crisis is both perplexing and alarming.
This article brings to mind the Kremlinologists during the cold war. Once we had access to their archives in the early 90s, the experts were shown to be decisively wrong. Similarly, our experts don't seem to understand Iran's motivations or likely responses. Took me a while to make that connection.
I hadn't thought of that comparison directly, but you make an interesting point.
One thing analysts seem unable to do these days is check assumptions. Facts are interpreted according to a narrative framework, but the question is rarely asked if the narrative framework makes sense.
The end result is a slew of conclusions—not just about Iran, but also economics and domestic politics—that end up fundamentally at odds with what actually happens.
Did Hezbollah agree to the ceasefire? I have not read where they did, and if they didn't then the ceasefire cannot include Lebanon.
Peter, you reported this morning that Kuwait, the UAE, and Bahrain have all been fired upon by Iran since the ceasefire agreement. Aren’t these attacks considered breaches of the ceasefire?
I believe Iran stated these were responses to Israel's continued strikes on Lebanon. Iran's 10 points extends the ceasefire to Lebanon and Iran's regional proxies.
Strictly speaking, yes.
However, it is probably prudent to believe those attacks occurred before some IRGC units received their stand down orders, whether they did or not.
Why the entire free world is not fully behind destroying the Iranian regime is beyond me. Makes me despair for humanity.
I think some of the outcomes, and it is already happening, is opening fossil fuel exploration in Europe and Asia and Asia Pacific. Pipelines and maybe rail infrastructure to circumvent choke points. Countries seeking alternatives to the Middle East. More storage capacity, building processing for petrochemical products closer to home. I suspect lots of countries are considering all kinds of changes.
This could prove the catalyst for a lot of change. Some of it is probably long overdue.
It's going to be some time before we can see the full scope of those changes.
It’s unclear whether this ceasefire will even start, let alone whether it will hold. Missiles and bombs kept flying in all directions all night and all day. Iran has just stated no ceasefire without a Lebanon ceasefire.
The problem of course is that the US is unable to negotiate or de-escalate without Israeli permission. Israel holds a permanent veto over US foreign policy.
"It's unclear".
Exactly. This is what the fog of war looks like.
I think a LOT of experts correctly predicted that Trump would bluster and then TACO. This was the mother of all blusters, followed by the mother of all TACOs.
Because war is always preferable to peace?
Hating Trump is hardly analytical.
This is so crazy, and unless the nuclear option is nuked there is no safety, and where are the cries for all the citizens being slaughtered in Iran? So horrible. It's far from over, according to Amir Tsarfati who has quick intel before any headlines https://tlgrm.eu/channels/@beholdisraelchannel
"China and Russia at the UN announced their intention to provide extensive aid to Iran within the next 24 hours, claiming that it is assistance for the country's reconstruction and not for the arms industry. However, according to reports in the Russian media, China has already sent 3 cargo ships carrying weapons, while Russian military aid planes are currently on their way to Isfahan. And military aid planes from Belarus are on their way to Tehran!"
Thank God for Israel and that we support them, and God have mercy on us, I am thankful but I'm also sad - so what was the point - we did not achieve any significant and meaningful objectives?
Ultimately, the butchery of the people of Iran has to be addressed by the people of Iran. If they do not find a way to replace the regime, is it really the task of the rest of the world to do it for them?
China presumably rearmed Iran after the Twelve Day War. Those arms did not have any meaningful impact this time, nor did the Russian weapons during the Twelve Day War.
Has anything been achieved? Trump will say yes, and those who oppose Trump will say no.
Will the ceasefire turn into lasting peace for the region? It could.
Will Russia and China exploit an opportunity? They will try.
What's next? Nobody knows, even those who insist otherwise.