I like how you’ve structured this post in terms of known and unknowns, Peter. That’s a smart way to organize all of these foggy facts of war.
I remember a year or two ago I heard a military analyst say that if we ever went to war with Iran we might very well not win. That startled me - really, that ancient-minded regime could beat our modern, powerful military? Well, Trump is proving him wrong, as our military has been decimating Iran! As you say, now the main questions are regarding the geopolitical fallout. The Iranian regime seems to be so fragmented, uncoordinated, and leaderless that they have made seriously stupid blunders - like attacking pretty much everyone else. So I’m reassured that the U.S. side has the better leadership which will help us prevail. Trump’s expertise with the Art of the Deal gives me confidence that his combination of poker and 5D chess will outsmart the other players. We already see how he’s got several people backed into corners.
Peter, you have quite a bit of historical knowledge - is our arguably superior leadership likely to be the deciding factor here, or will other factors such as number of drones, or command of the shipping lanes, etc. be far more important?
"is our arguably superior leadership likely to be the deciding factor here, or will other factors such as number of drones, or command of the shipping lanes, etc. be far more important?"
The deciding factor will be whatever forces Operation Epic Fury to a conclusion.
If the Iranian people rise up against Mojtaba Khamenei, that will be the deciding factor.
If Mojtaba Khamenei is killed (or is already dead), and the leadership of the IRGC is thereby stripped of all legitimacy, that will be the deciding factor.
If Kharg Island ends up engulfed in a massive fireball, thereby ending the Iranian oil economy, that will be the deciding factor.
Whatever forces Operation Epic Fury to a conclusion, be it a successful one or an unsuccessful one, will be the war’s deciding factor.
Whether leadership is superior or inferior will be determined by whether Operation Epic Fury is a success or failure.
Whether drone numbers were sufficient will be determined by whether the regime withstands Operation Epic Fury.
Wars are games of poker, not games of chess. The only “deciding factor” is whether one wins or loses. Everything else is an unknown until it comes time to write the history books.
Thanx Pete
I like how you’ve structured this post in terms of known and unknowns, Peter. That’s a smart way to organize all of these foggy facts of war.
I remember a year or two ago I heard a military analyst say that if we ever went to war with Iran we might very well not win. That startled me - really, that ancient-minded regime could beat our modern, powerful military? Well, Trump is proving him wrong, as our military has been decimating Iran! As you say, now the main questions are regarding the geopolitical fallout. The Iranian regime seems to be so fragmented, uncoordinated, and leaderless that they have made seriously stupid blunders - like attacking pretty much everyone else. So I’m reassured that the U.S. side has the better leadership which will help us prevail. Trump’s expertise with the Art of the Deal gives me confidence that his combination of poker and 5D chess will outsmart the other players. We already see how he’s got several people backed into corners.
Peter, you have quite a bit of historical knowledge - is our arguably superior leadership likely to be the deciding factor here, or will other factors such as number of drones, or command of the shipping lanes, etc. be far more important?
"is our arguably superior leadership likely to be the deciding factor here, or will other factors such as number of drones, or command of the shipping lanes, etc. be far more important?"
The deciding factor will be whatever forces Operation Epic Fury to a conclusion.
If the Iranian people rise up against Mojtaba Khamenei, that will be the deciding factor.
If Mojtaba Khamenei is killed (or is already dead), and the leadership of the IRGC is thereby stripped of all legitimacy, that will be the deciding factor.
If Kharg Island ends up engulfed in a massive fireball, thereby ending the Iranian oil economy, that will be the deciding factor.
Whatever forces Operation Epic Fury to a conclusion, be it a successful one or an unsuccessful one, will be the war’s deciding factor.
Whether leadership is superior or inferior will be determined by whether Operation Epic Fury is a success or failure.
Whether drone numbers were sufficient will be determined by whether the regime withstands Operation Epic Fury.
Wars are games of poker, not games of chess. The only “deciding factor” is whether one wins or loses. Everything else is an unknown until it comes time to write the history books.
Trump has just tweeted that “we have beaten”:
https://substack.com/@overtonnews/note/c-227843961?r=z3pgv&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=notes-share-action
Peter, is he saying “we’ve won”, or just being Trump?
Operation Epic Fury is continuing. Enough said.