Republican political strategist, foreign policy analyst and former surrogate for Donald Trump’s 2016 and 2024 presidential campaigns.”
I think that when partisan political strategists pontificate on geopolitical strategy, the bulk of their presumed punditry is propaganda.
Adolfo Franco proves my point with the word salad of his closing paragraph:
“Six months into the conflict, the US has not won this war. But it has made winning it, at last, a realistic prospect rather than a forlorn hope, a hard-earned, bitter lesson after decades of failure by successive US administrations too eager for compromise and agreements with a regime that had no intention of honouring them.”
How “realistic” winning the war is depends both on how one defines “winning” and how long one projects until the war is plausibly won. Franco considers neither dimension of winning.
As I’ve explored previously, President Trump has already decisively beaten Iran militarily. Iran has no land, air, or naval forces to seriously threaten the region, and it is problematic how deep their stockpiles of missiles and drones are with which to threaten their Persian Gulf neighbors.
Yet as the IRGC is arguably more entrenched in power within Iran than before the war, President Trump has not beaten Iran geopolitically—not yet.
The question everyone wants desperately to answer is “will President Trump beat Iran geopolitically? Can President Trump beat Iran geopolitically?”
The correct answer is “we do not know.” President Trump does not know. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth does not know. Secretary of State Marco Rubio does not know. Ahmed Vahidi, commander of the IRGC and the presumed power behind the throne in Iran, does not know.
Which means a mere Republican political strategist does not know either, and it is only his ego and arrogance which prevents him from acknowledging this.
That being said, are President Trump’s pressure tactics having an impact on Iran? Absolutely. The Iranian rial has collapsed by nearly 100% just since the start of the year. Inflation has gone ballistic. Iran is facing an imminent gasoline shortage, and the majority of the population is starting to feel the bite of hunger and malnutrition. Food inflation has become food scarcity and is becoming famine.
China and Russia, ostensibly Iran’s staunch allies, either cannot do anything substantial to aid Iran or refuse to to anything substantial to aid Iran.
Despite all this, there are no signs the IRGC is losing its grip on power.
The reality within Iran is this: the IRGC has painted itself into a corner where any sort of peace that looks like surrender will likely embolden the restive insurgent elements that the Basij militias tried to exterminate in January. Authoritarian regimes endure only so long as their people believe in the strength of the regime, and so the IRGC faces an uphill battle crafting a peace that lets it save face after all their anti-Trump, anti-America rhetoric. Even if elements of the IRGC wanted peace, the political realities inside Iran preclude them championing peace above a faint whisper.
President Trump’s pressure tactics have not changed that aspect of the situation within Iran. In all fairness, I doubt any foreign actor would have the capacity to change that within Iran.
Are President Trump’s pressure tactics bringing Iran closer to a point where rebellion becomes both inevitable and unstoppable? Perhaps—but we won’t know that until the rebellion happens and Vahidi, et al, are put on the express elevator to the Hell they so richly deserve.
If the IRGC survives in power, has President Trump won or lost this war? Most cogent geopolitical analyses of that scenario would be hard pressed to call that outcome a US victory. At best it would be a draw, but more likely it will be a geopolitical defeat.
You won’t see Adolfo Franco or any other pro-Trump propagandist admitting that.
You echo my thoughts on this OpEd pretty much to the letter. 📝☑️
I was mainly surprised to see even one positive phrase concerning Trump from any media source.
The real question, for me, is how much control or say so does the government in Tehran actually have over the Basij and the IRGC? Can they call off the dogs or will the dogs just devour them and any opposing voices?
That this op-ed emerged in Al-Jazeera is surprising.
Of course, that begs the question of Al-Jazeera's motives in publishing the piece. Why is an Arab news outlet saying nice things about President Trump?
We should remember that Al-Jazeera is partially owned by the Qatari government. Qatar has been pretty badly hurt by Iranian missiles and drones, so their tilt towards President Trump might not be anything more than "the enemy of my enemy is my friend."
AJE 📡 and Qatar 🇶🇦 aren't exactly rah rah for Iran or the IRGC. That they even suggest the pressure 🏦 is working ⚓ is a positive sign for this Okie. We still have substantial forces 🇺🇲 in harms way.
We do indeed. The naval blockade and the convoy system being organized by the US Navy is hardly a risk-free endeavor.
Nor should we forget that US servicemen have already died in this war.
God willing, the pressure campaign will push the IRGC into a final destabilizing death spiral, and forces within Iran will finally dispatch them. Then perhaps a new government free of the Mahdist influences of the IRGC will take control in Tehran, and the door to a lasting peace will be opened.
I prefer peace to war, but if there must be war, I prefer victory over defeat.
The question that must be asked is: What about "leakage"; the commerce with Iran that occurs on a low or stealth level?
Certainly there are countries that will ignore US sanctions; those will become 3rd party conduits to Iran. That may allow major countries to deny trade with Iran.
Here we go! This operation could be unprecedented in financial history. I know we can count on you, Peter, to keep an eye out for signs of financial “unintended consequences” which might be devastating.
The wild card I haven’t heard discussed is the extent of blockade-running types of black market activity that could easily arise. Would Trump fire on small boats bringing in food and goods to Iranians (for profit, of course)? Remember the WW2 evacuation at Dunkirk; the Nazis couldn’t blow up thousands of small boats, and most of the British soldiers were able to get to England safely. Could thousands of private small boats defeat the purpose of this new economic tactic? Have Bessent and Hegseth thought about how they could thwart such activities?
Check out this recent 🛢️🇮🇷🚢🇴🇲💱🇺🇲 OpEd from AJE:
https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2026/8/28/six-months-on-trumps-iran-strategy-is-starting-to-pay-off
What do you think Peter?
Semper Fortis,
Semper Supra,
FLY FIGHT WIN!
“By Adolfo Franco
Republican political strategist, foreign policy analyst and former surrogate for Donald Trump’s 2016 and 2024 presidential campaigns.”
I think that when partisan political strategists pontificate on geopolitical strategy, the bulk of their presumed punditry is propaganda.
Adolfo Franco proves my point with the word salad of his closing paragraph:
“Six months into the conflict, the US has not won this war. But it has made winning it, at last, a realistic prospect rather than a forlorn hope, a hard-earned, bitter lesson after decades of failure by successive US administrations too eager for compromise and agreements with a regime that had no intention of honouring them.”
How “realistic” winning the war is depends both on how one defines “winning” and how long one projects until the war is plausibly won. Franco considers neither dimension of winning.
As I’ve explored previously, President Trump has already decisively beaten Iran militarily. Iran has no land, air, or naval forces to seriously threaten the region, and it is problematic how deep their stockpiles of missiles and drones are with which to threaten their Persian Gulf neighbors.
Yet as the IRGC is arguably more entrenched in power within Iran than before the war, President Trump has not beaten Iran geopolitically—not yet.
The question everyone wants desperately to answer is “will President Trump beat Iran geopolitically? Can President Trump beat Iran geopolitically?”
The correct answer is “we do not know.” President Trump does not know. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth does not know. Secretary of State Marco Rubio does not know. Ahmed Vahidi, commander of the IRGC and the presumed power behind the throne in Iran, does not know.
Which means a mere Republican political strategist does not know either, and it is only his ego and arrogance which prevents him from acknowledging this.
That being said, are President Trump’s pressure tactics having an impact on Iran? Absolutely. The Iranian rial has collapsed by nearly 100% just since the start of the year. Inflation has gone ballistic. Iran is facing an imminent gasoline shortage, and the majority of the population is starting to feel the bite of hunger and malnutrition. Food inflation has become food scarcity and is becoming famine.
China and Russia, ostensibly Iran’s staunch allies, either cannot do anything substantial to aid Iran or refuse to to anything substantial to aid Iran.
Despite all this, there are no signs the IRGC is losing its grip on power.
The reality within Iran is this: the IRGC has painted itself into a corner where any sort of peace that looks like surrender will likely embolden the restive insurgent elements that the Basij militias tried to exterminate in January. Authoritarian regimes endure only so long as their people believe in the strength of the regime, and so the IRGC faces an uphill battle crafting a peace that lets it save face after all their anti-Trump, anti-America rhetoric. Even if elements of the IRGC wanted peace, the political realities inside Iran preclude them championing peace above a faint whisper.
President Trump’s pressure tactics have not changed that aspect of the situation within Iran. In all fairness, I doubt any foreign actor would have the capacity to change that within Iran.
Are President Trump’s pressure tactics bringing Iran closer to a point where rebellion becomes both inevitable and unstoppable? Perhaps—but we won’t know that until the rebellion happens and Vahidi, et al, are put on the express elevator to the Hell they so richly deserve.
If the IRGC survives in power, has President Trump won or lost this war? Most cogent geopolitical analyses of that scenario would be hard pressed to call that outcome a US victory. At best it would be a draw, but more likely it will be a geopolitical defeat.
You won’t see Adolfo Franco or any other pro-Trump propagandist admitting that.
You echo my thoughts on this OpEd pretty much to the letter. 📝☑️
I was mainly surprised to see even one positive phrase concerning Trump from any media source.
The real question, for me, is how much control or say so does the government in Tehran actually have over the Basij and the IRGC? Can they call off the dogs or will the dogs just devour them and any opposing voices?
That this op-ed emerged in Al-Jazeera is surprising.
Of course, that begs the question of Al-Jazeera's motives in publishing the piece. Why is an Arab news outlet saying nice things about President Trump?
We should remember that Al-Jazeera is partially owned by the Qatari government. Qatar has been pretty badly hurt by Iranian missiles and drones, so their tilt towards President Trump might not be anything more than "the enemy of my enemy is my friend."
AJE 📡 and Qatar 🇶🇦 aren't exactly rah rah for Iran or the IRGC. That they even suggest the pressure 🏦 is working ⚓ is a positive sign for this Okie. We still have substantial forces 🇺🇲 in harms way.
We do indeed. The naval blockade and the convoy system being organized by the US Navy is hardly a risk-free endeavor.
Nor should we forget that US servicemen have already died in this war.
God willing, the pressure campaign will push the IRGC into a final destabilizing death spiral, and forces within Iran will finally dispatch them. Then perhaps a new government free of the Mahdist influences of the IRGC will take control in Tehran, and the door to a lasting peace will be opened.
I prefer peace to war, but if there must be war, I prefer victory over defeat.
Thanx Pete
The question that must be asked is: What about "leakage"; the commerce with Iran that occurs on a low or stealth level?
Certainly there are countries that will ignore US sanctions; those will become 3rd party conduits to Iran. That may allow major countries to deny trade with Iran.
Here we go! This operation could be unprecedented in financial history. I know we can count on you, Peter, to keep an eye out for signs of financial “unintended consequences” which might be devastating.
The wild card I haven’t heard discussed is the extent of blockade-running types of black market activity that could easily arise. Would Trump fire on small boats bringing in food and goods to Iranians (for profit, of course)? Remember the WW2 evacuation at Dunkirk; the Nazis couldn’t blow up thousands of small boats, and most of the British soldiers were able to get to England safely. Could thousands of private small boats defeat the purpose of this new economic tactic? Have Bessent and Hegseth thought about how they could thwart such activities?
We’ll see!
Dunkirk, apples and oranges,
Germany's air force was contested with Britain's air force.
and then there was the warships, shooting at the Germany's air force to protect the convoys
it would be safer to go over land.... BUT it take a lot of Semis to equal one tanker...
and there is the railroad.... a little bomb would slow that down....
and little boats? same, it take a lot of them, many trips...
submarines carrying oil? same Trump says they are at the bottom now, so sort of mute.
an oil tanker carries 2 million barrels... i just don't see replacing that
a semi 250 barrels, a rail road tank car 700 barrels
and i don't think they are set up to move that type of oil via small boats, trucks, and railroad cars.