With most of the world's eyes on Iran and the Persian Gulf states I'm curious that little is being written about what North Korea has been up to. They already are a nuclear power (something that might have been prevented had the world had the guts to take on North Korea two decades ago) with a captive population held hostage by a single family. North Korea's been giving aid and comfort to Putin's war effort so they're willing to become involved in other countries affairs, I have to wonder how long their influence can be maintained should they choose to project power somewhere other than along a Pyongyang / Moscow axis.
Iran's IRGC, a Medusa Headed government, hiding behind a similarly hostaged civilian population held as a sacrificial lamb, a government of religious fundamentalists who value death over life.
North Korea has nuclear weapons, and has been developing ballistic missile technology, but the country lacks any military or geopolitical power projection capacity in any meaningful sense. North Korea can threaten South Korea, but North Korea cannot make any conventional threat against Japan or the Philippines.
That lack of conventional power projection capacity limits how they can leverage their nuclear weapons. Within the rubric of geopolitics, North Korea does not attract much attention because North Korea is simply not that interesting.
Thank you again for a factual picture, Peter. I’ve been amazed at how little this war is being covered by corporate media. Even for them, it comes across as seriously lazy - and, as usual, manipulative.
I’d love to see updated data on a bunch of metrics. What’s the updated numbers for how much oil storage space does Iran have; how many drones left; how much foreign currency; and any other indicators of how long Iran can stay fighting? What are the updated estimates for how much longer China can keep from dramatic economic crisis? I’m sure you’re on the lookout for these kinds of numbers, and will be the first to give a meaningful analysis. You are so good at this!
Meanwhile, we also aren’t hearing much from corporate media regarding the spreading effect of this war in the gulf region. Is Iraq destabilizing as a result of lower oil sales? Is internal opposition to the Saudi regime increasing? Are military analysts worried about other Islamic countries, such as Pakistan, getting actively involved? There are so many possibilities within the context of a wider war. You, Peter, are one of the few analysts we can count on to stay factual, and not go off on wild extrapolation or narratives. Thank you for being you!
There are no good estimates on how many drones Iran has left. Iran's military production capacities are one of their more closely held secrets, and I would put low confidence in any publicly disclosed guesstimates.
How long can Iran stay fighting? Probably longer than most rational assessments would calculate. The IRGC has proven that it is not swayed by the usual concerns about the welfare of the people. They truly do not give a damn how much the Iranian people suffer, and the war may even be strengthening the IRGC hand with respect to the Iranian people. The IRGC very likely looks at the war as a net positive and will seek to continue it as long as possible.
The Persian Gulf states are not destabilizing...yet. Could they a few months or years down the road as the fallout from the war lands on them? Easily.
Pakistan is unlikely to be involved except as mediator, for a very simple reason: they need the Strait open, not closed. China may find it prudent to keep Iran at arm's length for the same reason. As for other Muslim countries getting involved, aside from the Houthis, there really aren't any forces which can get involve on Iran's side. Even if they were friendly to Iran--which is a stretch--they don't have the capabilities to project power into the Persian Gulf.
At the end of the day all countries need the Strait of Hormuz open. They need Persian Gulf oil to flow. That reality is likely to trump all other alliances.
With most of the world's eyes on Iran and the Persian Gulf states I'm curious that little is being written about what North Korea has been up to. They already are a nuclear power (something that might have been prevented had the world had the guts to take on North Korea two decades ago) with a captive population held hostage by a single family. North Korea's been giving aid and comfort to Putin's war effort so they're willing to become involved in other countries affairs, I have to wonder how long their influence can be maintained should they choose to project power somewhere other than along a Pyongyang / Moscow axis.
Iran's IRGC, a Medusa Headed government, hiding behind a similarly hostaged civilian population held as a sacrificial lamb, a government of religious fundamentalists who value death over life.
North Korea has nuclear weapons, and has been developing ballistic missile technology, but the country lacks any military or geopolitical power projection capacity in any meaningful sense. North Korea can threaten South Korea, but North Korea cannot make any conventional threat against Japan or the Philippines.
That lack of conventional power projection capacity limits how they can leverage their nuclear weapons. Within the rubric of geopolitics, North Korea does not attract much attention because North Korea is simply not that interesting.
Dismal, but realistic assessment. The hardest kind to make. Thank you.
iran’s diaperhead regime must fall.
Thank you again for a factual picture, Peter. I’ve been amazed at how little this war is being covered by corporate media. Even for them, it comes across as seriously lazy - and, as usual, manipulative.
I’d love to see updated data on a bunch of metrics. What’s the updated numbers for how much oil storage space does Iran have; how many drones left; how much foreign currency; and any other indicators of how long Iran can stay fighting? What are the updated estimates for how much longer China can keep from dramatic economic crisis? I’m sure you’re on the lookout for these kinds of numbers, and will be the first to give a meaningful analysis. You are so good at this!
Meanwhile, we also aren’t hearing much from corporate media regarding the spreading effect of this war in the gulf region. Is Iraq destabilizing as a result of lower oil sales? Is internal opposition to the Saudi regime increasing? Are military analysts worried about other Islamic countries, such as Pakistan, getting actively involved? There are so many possibilities within the context of a wider war. You, Peter, are one of the few analysts we can count on to stay factual, and not go off on wild extrapolation or narratives. Thank you for being you!
There are no good estimates on how many drones Iran has left. Iran's military production capacities are one of their more closely held secrets, and I would put low confidence in any publicly disclosed guesstimates.
How long can Iran stay fighting? Probably longer than most rational assessments would calculate. The IRGC has proven that it is not swayed by the usual concerns about the welfare of the people. They truly do not give a damn how much the Iranian people suffer, and the war may even be strengthening the IRGC hand with respect to the Iranian people. The IRGC very likely looks at the war as a net positive and will seek to continue it as long as possible.
The Persian Gulf states are not destabilizing...yet. Could they a few months or years down the road as the fallout from the war lands on them? Easily.
Pakistan is unlikely to be involved except as mediator, for a very simple reason: they need the Strait open, not closed. China may find it prudent to keep Iran at arm's length for the same reason. As for other Muslim countries getting involved, aside from the Houthis, there really aren't any forces which can get involve on Iran's side. Even if they were friendly to Iran--which is a stretch--they don't have the capabilities to project power into the Persian Gulf.
At the end of the day all countries need the Strait of Hormuz open. They need Persian Gulf oil to flow. That reality is likely to trump all other alliances.
Excellent answer, Magnificent Man!