Iran is not just asserting control over the Strait (illegally), but is also attempting to exert control over Arab oil flows overall.
This was an aggressive strike, not a retaliatory one. This is Iran going on offense, not playing defense, even though the Khamenei regime will claim otherwise.
Given what we've seen from the IRGC faction within the Khamenei regime, they are a true death cult and being blown to glory is a victory for them so long as they can take some of their "adversaries" with them.
They won't rue anything except peace. Which means the world has no choice but to give them war.
Excellent investigative reporting and analysis, Peter - thank you!
I found myself coming up with one hundred questions, most of which cannot be answered. What are the motives of the individuals involved (financial vs patriotic vs fear-based, etc.)? Which individuals are profiting, financially and politically?
Last year, Trump negotiated an end to rapidly escalating violence between Pakistan and India. A grateful Pakistan nominated Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize as a result. Assuming those same Pakistani individuals are still involved, what is their game here? Are they just trying to prevent a wider war that would negatively affect themselves? To what extent are they just capitalizing on a chance to make money? We get the impression that there is so much going on behind the scenes. Historically, when a civilization is collapsing, free-market self-preservation and opportunistic forces rise with astonishing speed and chaos. I suspect that is what we are seeing now, and we won’t know the details until years later.
But you’re sure trying to find out for us, Peter, and I thank you again!
What Pakistan is doing is what countries in Pakistan's position do--play for power and influence, while safeguarding their own interests.
Pakistan needs Persian Gulf oil and refined products flowing. Getting the Strait of Hormuz opened is very much in their best interest and I don't imagine their particular about how it gets reopened.
At the same time, Pakistan and Iran have a tense history of border issues--mainly from various terrorist and other groups slipping back and forth across the border to cause mischief in one country while hiding out in the other. If the Tehran government collapses completely that's not a good development for Pakistan.
Pakistan, by playing peacemaker, is gaining credibility and clout on the world stage. One potential spin of the order opening the land routes is as a humanitarian gesture in furtherance of that peacemaker role--Iran needs the imports stacking up in the port at Karachi.
But Pakistan has 3,000 Iranian-bound shipping containers on the docs at Karachi. As people may recall from the COVID Pandemic Panic, when port facilities become full with containers that need to be someplace else, it impairs the functioning of the port. Pakistan wants Iran's 3,000 containers GONE.
It doesn't fundamentally alter the nature of the blockade, so Pakistan has no real downside to the gesture.
What a clusterf— this will turn out to be. I can’t see the Persians being subservient to the Paks, unless there was substantial Chinese involvement
WILL turn out to be?
Fustercluck is a pretty good description of what it already is.
Wow, certain people are just determined to make everything worse:
https://www.theepochtimes.com/world/iran-strikes-uae-fujairah-oil-export-zone-with-drone-officials-say-6020919?utm_source=ref_share&utm_campaign=copy
As I commented in a separate note, Iran struck one of the few oil terminals that sits outside the Strait of Hormuz.
https://substack.com/@peternaylandkust/note/c-253652721
Iran is not just asserting control over the Strait (illegally), but is also attempting to exert control over Arab oil flows overall.
This was an aggressive strike, not a retaliatory one. This is Iran going on offense, not playing defense, even though the Khamenei regime will claim otherwise.
They will rue the day.
Ordinarily, I would agree with you.
Given what we've seen from the IRGC faction within the Khamenei regime, they are a true death cult and being blown to glory is a victory for them so long as they can take some of their "adversaries" with them.
They won't rue anything except peace. Which means the world has no choice but to give them war.
And so here we are.
I love your wisdom, Peter!
Excellent investigative reporting and analysis, Peter - thank you!
I found myself coming up with one hundred questions, most of which cannot be answered. What are the motives of the individuals involved (financial vs patriotic vs fear-based, etc.)? Which individuals are profiting, financially and politically?
Last year, Trump negotiated an end to rapidly escalating violence between Pakistan and India. A grateful Pakistan nominated Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize as a result. Assuming those same Pakistani individuals are still involved, what is their game here? Are they just trying to prevent a wider war that would negatively affect themselves? To what extent are they just capitalizing on a chance to make money? We get the impression that there is so much going on behind the scenes. Historically, when a civilization is collapsing, free-market self-preservation and opportunistic forces rise with astonishing speed and chaos. I suspect that is what we are seeing now, and we won’t know the details until years later.
But you’re sure trying to find out for us, Peter, and I thank you again!
What Pakistan is doing is what countries in Pakistan's position do--play for power and influence, while safeguarding their own interests.
Pakistan needs Persian Gulf oil and refined products flowing. Getting the Strait of Hormuz opened is very much in their best interest and I don't imagine their particular about how it gets reopened.
At the same time, Pakistan and Iran have a tense history of border issues--mainly from various terrorist and other groups slipping back and forth across the border to cause mischief in one country while hiding out in the other. If the Tehran government collapses completely that's not a good development for Pakistan.
Pakistan, by playing peacemaker, is gaining credibility and clout on the world stage. One potential spin of the order opening the land routes is as a humanitarian gesture in furtherance of that peacemaker role--Iran needs the imports stacking up in the port at Karachi.
But Pakistan has 3,000 Iranian-bound shipping containers on the docs at Karachi. As people may recall from the COVID Pandemic Panic, when port facilities become full with containers that need to be someplace else, it impairs the functioning of the port. Pakistan wants Iran's 3,000 containers GONE.
It doesn't fundamentally alter the nature of the blockade, so Pakistan has no real downside to the gesture.