“…the reality has been that the IRGC especially, but broadly the whole of the Iranian government, simply does not want peace.” That’s the problem in a nutshell. The religious fanatics within the IRGC want to create Armageddon. All of their talk of peace is just buying them more time - time to resupply and rearm. As a master of negotiations, Trump understands what the IRGC is doing, and he will not be fooled. I believe he is on top of things, and I expect he will prevail in outmaneuvering Iran’s duplicity and deception. (Can you imagine Kamal Harris trying to handle this?)
Thanks for the updated assessment, Peter. You are endlessly talented in your efforts!
Iran is yet to truly cry for mercy. Unfortunately I posit that mercy for Iran be limited to the actual people and not any of the regimes government and military apparatus. I think the people want us to completely overthrow the regime. They are unwilling to sacrifice for their happiness, unless I see wrong
There are at most a few hundred thousand IRGC soldiers and Basij militia members combined.
There are 92 million Iranians.
The Iranians absolutely could overthrow the regime if they wanted it badly enough. Molotov cocktails and intifada asymmetrical tactics negate any immediate advantage in firepower held by the IRGC.
If Iranians genuinely want regime change, they need to put some skin in the game. Otherwise they can share the fate of the IRGC, which on the present trajectory is likely to be extermination.
I think Trump holds the cards vis a vis financial stranglehold, e.g., Kharg Is., and this will not be the last death spasm of the incorrigible regime, such as it is.
The IRGC's gamble has almost certainly been that it could run out the clock.
The pace strategic petroleum reserves were being drawn down, the buffering effect they were having on global oil prices was likely fade some time in either July or August. Without that buffering effect it is quite likely that global oil prices would surge, going well past the highs experienced early on.
The prevailing wisdom is that a fresh oil supply shock and the resultant stagflation crisis in the US and around the globe would sink Republicans' chances in the mid-term elections. Donald Trump presumably dare not risk that, or so that thinking goes, and so if the IRGC just holds the line President Trump has to blink before they do.
The gamble is that the US Navy has shown it can blockade Iranian shipping quite effectively, which means Iran hasn't sold any oil for well over a month and a half, at a time when it needs all the hard currency it can get.
Iran's economy is collapsing, and that has the potential to make the IRGC blink.
“…geopolitical game of chicken” - yes indeed! But it would be out of character for Trump to chicken out and swerve away. Trump is not likely to be the one who blinks first. I’m expecting Fourth of July fireworks, as Trump says to heck with the repercussions!
“…the reality has been that the IRGC especially, but broadly the whole of the Iranian government, simply does not want peace.” That’s the problem in a nutshell. The religious fanatics within the IRGC want to create Armageddon. All of their talk of peace is just buying them more time - time to resupply and rearm. As a master of negotiations, Trump understands what the IRGC is doing, and he will not be fooled. I believe he is on top of things, and I expect he will prevail in outmaneuvering Iran’s duplicity and deception. (Can you imagine Kamal Harris trying to handle this?)
Thanks for the updated assessment, Peter. You are endlessly talented in your efforts!
Iran is yet to truly cry for mercy. Unfortunately I posit that mercy for Iran be limited to the actual people and not any of the regimes government and military apparatus. I think the people want us to completely overthrow the regime. They are unwilling to sacrifice for their happiness, unless I see wrong
There are at most a few hundred thousand IRGC soldiers and Basij militia members combined.
There are 92 million Iranians.
The Iranians absolutely could overthrow the regime if they wanted it badly enough. Molotov cocktails and intifada asymmetrical tactics negate any immediate advantage in firepower held by the IRGC.
If Iranians genuinely want regime change, they need to put some skin in the game. Otherwise they can share the fate of the IRGC, which on the present trajectory is likely to be extermination.
I think Trump holds the cards vis a vis financial stranglehold, e.g., Kharg Is., and this will not be the last death spasm of the incorrigible regime, such as it is.
The IRGC's gamble has almost certainly been that it could run out the clock.
The pace strategic petroleum reserves were being drawn down, the buffering effect they were having on global oil prices was likely fade some time in either July or August. Without that buffering effect it is quite likely that global oil prices would surge, going well past the highs experienced early on.
The prevailing wisdom is that a fresh oil supply shock and the resultant stagflation crisis in the US and around the globe would sink Republicans' chances in the mid-term elections. Donald Trump presumably dare not risk that, or so that thinking goes, and so if the IRGC just holds the line President Trump has to blink before they do.
The gamble is that the US Navy has shown it can blockade Iranian shipping quite effectively, which means Iran hasn't sold any oil for well over a month and a half, at a time when it needs all the hard currency it can get.
Iran's economy is collapsing, and that has the potential to make the IRGC blink.
It's a geopolitical game of chicken.
“…geopolitical game of chicken” - yes indeed! But it would be out of character for Trump to chicken out and swerve away. Trump is not likely to be the one who blinks first. I’m expecting Fourth of July fireworks, as Trump says to heck with the repercussions!
I agree. Trump 2.0 has demonstrated it is much less concerned with political appeasement.