You certainly raise a bunch of concerning issues, Peter. Yes, the war simply must end quickly, or there will be serious economic prices to pay - and I think we can count on Trump to understand this!
One bit of data has piqued my curiosity: the increase in shelter price inflation. Our border has been closed and more than one million illegals deported, so you would think that would ease shelter price inflation. Any idea why it’s increased?
Shelter was a surprise, especially since both the BLS and Zillow numbers showed an increase, with Zillow printing the larger increase. Zillow's ZORI metric tends to be more forward looking than the BLS metric, so for both of them to surge like is remarkable.
However, with housing markets stuck in deep freeze in many parts of the country, we could very easily be looking at a shift driven more by housing market dynamics than the energy price shock from Operation Epic Fury.
If shelter retreats again next month or the month after then the best way to view the March hike will be as truly transitory inflation in the shelter index. If the shelter index shifts high and stays high, then there is "something" more meaningful taking place. At this juncture the public data does not make it readily clear what that "something" might be.
You certainly raise a bunch of concerning issues, Peter. Yes, the war simply must end quickly, or there will be serious economic prices to pay - and I think we can count on Trump to understand this!
One bit of data has piqued my curiosity: the increase in shelter price inflation. Our border has been closed and more than one million illegals deported, so you would think that would ease shelter price inflation. Any idea why it’s increased?
Thanks for all you do, Peter!
Shelter was a surprise, especially since both the BLS and Zillow numbers showed an increase, with Zillow printing the larger increase. Zillow's ZORI metric tends to be more forward looking than the BLS metric, so for both of them to surge like is remarkable.
However, with housing markets stuck in deep freeze in many parts of the country, we could very easily be looking at a shift driven more by housing market dynamics than the energy price shock from Operation Epic Fury.
If shelter retreats again next month or the month after then the best way to view the March hike will be as truly transitory inflation in the shelter index. If the shelter index shifts high and stays high, then there is "something" more meaningful taking place. At this juncture the public data does not make it readily clear what that "something" might be.