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Peter Zeihan weaves a fascinating web. I tend to be a little skeptical of some of the chain reactions he intimates arise from various geopolitical forces in play--I suspect he extrapolates a bit farther than logic can sustain (this is especially true when he gets into economic matters).

However, while his list of particulars is open to debate, the notion that Russian influence in the Caucasus has more or less evaporated completely is a conclusion that follows from the outcome of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. In that regard Peter Zeihan is broadly correct.

I touch on a related aspect of this in tomorrow's article, which is a follow on about the Karabakh conflict.

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