As best as can be determined at this time, someone on Twitter went off on a wild tangent because Xi Jinping hasn't been seen since his foreign trip to Uzbekistan. Ergo, he must have been toppled.
Of course, that completely disregards the reality that Xi self quarantined for a week after visiting Hong Kong, and it is highly probable he has…
As best as can be determined at this time, someone on Twitter went off on a wild tangent because Xi Jinping hasn't been seen since his foreign trip to Uzbekistan. Ergo, he must have been toppled.
Of course, that completely disregards the reality that Xi self quarantined for a week after visiting Hong Kong, and it is highly probable he has done so again. There were also rumors spread of mass flight cancellations that were demonstrably not true, and Beijing continues to make announcements about the upcoming party Congress mentioning Xi--something they would not do if he had been defenestrated.
Which makes the "coup" rumor a silly social media thing that, until there is actual evidence of someone other than Xi in charge, does not deserve serious consideration.
Can they drop some sort of financial bomb? Yes and no. It's more like China IS a financial ticking time bomb, and has been for years. The same banks which are dealing with the blowback from serial developer liquidity crunches are the same banks that underwrote a substantial part of the Belt And Road Initiative loans abroad--a growing portion of which debt is turning toxic. A considerable amount of global sovereign debt becomes highly iffy if China's economic woes get much worse. Additionally, if China's back gets put against the economic wall they will dump whatever holdings of Treasuries they have left to sustain the yuan for however long they can (which won't be long in that circumstance).
China can't backstop the yuan with higher interest rates and stimulate the economy the way they've been doing. In a meltdown scenario, private Chinese citizens with the means to do so will exploit every legal and illegal means to get their capital out of China and out of the yuan--which means a massive inflow of capital most likely to the US, further goosing the dollar (Jay Powell will love that) at the expense of the pound (Liz Truss will not love that), the euro, and the yen. With Powell continuing to turn the interest rate screw, the next wave of side effects will be third world and emerging market debts, as countries will face unaffordable debt service costs going forward in a new higher interest-rate paradigm.
Essentially, if the Chinese economy goes into total meltdown (i.e., rapid collapse), the shock waves reverberate first over Europe, the UK, and the US, and the secondary waves over just about everywhere else in the world. It would be a global replay of the 1980s Latin American debt crises, but on a somewhat larger scale.
"private Chinese citizens with the means to do so will exploit every legal and illegal means to get their capital out of China and out of the yuan"
If that happens the smart money will sell dollars and buy CNY assets. There are a lot of dumb money in China and they are always the guys who buy at the top.
"Is the ticking time bomb." Kinda my read too, but in the case of the Communists, it is all planned. They always feed off of capitalism, in true revolutionary Communism, it has to end. One thing for sure, no matter what it sure is a hell of a mess!
One thing to remember is one of the statements by a Communist defector.
When asked when they might attack the west, their reply was "No possibility of it occurring until they can't steal from you anymore."
"Then a certainty."
Probably not a bad idea to figure this into things.
China stopped being "Communist" when Mao Zedong died. While the CCP pays lip service to the notion of Communism, ideologically and structurally they are not a revolutionary Communist government but a fascistic oligarchic one.
And no, none of China's collapse was "planned", other than it being the result of piss-poor planning by the CCP. Contrary to the myths about Communist states, very little of what actually takes place is in accordance with any long-term plan. Even Mao's nihilistic Cultural Revolution was little more than a ploy by Mao to reclaim his position at the center of the Chinese government after he'd had his wings clipped somewhat because of the epic egomaniacal fustercluck known as the Great Leap Forward
As best as can be determined at this time, someone on Twitter went off on a wild tangent because Xi Jinping hasn't been seen since his foreign trip to Uzbekistan. Ergo, he must have been toppled.
Of course, that completely disregards the reality that Xi self quarantined for a week after visiting Hong Kong, and it is highly probable he has done so again. There were also rumors spread of mass flight cancellations that were demonstrably not true, and Beijing continues to make announcements about the upcoming party Congress mentioning Xi--something they would not do if he had been defenestrated.
Which makes the "coup" rumor a silly social media thing that, until there is actual evidence of someone other than Xi in charge, does not deserve serious consideration.
Can they drop some sort of financial bomb? Yes and no. It's more like China IS a financial ticking time bomb, and has been for years. The same banks which are dealing with the blowback from serial developer liquidity crunches are the same banks that underwrote a substantial part of the Belt And Road Initiative loans abroad--a growing portion of which debt is turning toxic. A considerable amount of global sovereign debt becomes highly iffy if China's economic woes get much worse. Additionally, if China's back gets put against the economic wall they will dump whatever holdings of Treasuries they have left to sustain the yuan for however long they can (which won't be long in that circumstance).
China can't backstop the yuan with higher interest rates and stimulate the economy the way they've been doing. In a meltdown scenario, private Chinese citizens with the means to do so will exploit every legal and illegal means to get their capital out of China and out of the yuan--which means a massive inflow of capital most likely to the US, further goosing the dollar (Jay Powell will love that) at the expense of the pound (Liz Truss will not love that), the euro, and the yen. With Powell continuing to turn the interest rate screw, the next wave of side effects will be third world and emerging market debts, as countries will face unaffordable debt service costs going forward in a new higher interest-rate paradigm.
Essentially, if the Chinese economy goes into total meltdown (i.e., rapid collapse), the shock waves reverberate first over Europe, the UK, and the US, and the secondary waves over just about everywhere else in the world. It would be a global replay of the 1980s Latin American debt crises, but on a somewhat larger scale.
"private Chinese citizens with the means to do so will exploit every legal and illegal means to get their capital out of China and out of the yuan"
If that happens the smart money will sell dollars and buy CNY assets. There are a lot of dumb money in China and they are always the guys who buy at the top.
"Is the ticking time bomb." Kinda my read too, but in the case of the Communists, it is all planned. They always feed off of capitalism, in true revolutionary Communism, it has to end. One thing for sure, no matter what it sure is a hell of a mess!
One thing to remember is one of the statements by a Communist defector.
When asked when they might attack the west, their reply was "No possibility of it occurring until they can't steal from you anymore."
"Then a certainty."
Probably not a bad idea to figure this into things.
China stopped being "Communist" when Mao Zedong died. While the CCP pays lip service to the notion of Communism, ideologically and structurally they are not a revolutionary Communist government but a fascistic oligarchic one.
And no, none of China's collapse was "planned", other than it being the result of piss-poor planning by the CCP. Contrary to the myths about Communist states, very little of what actually takes place is in accordance with any long-term plan. Even Mao's nihilistic Cultural Revolution was little more than a ploy by Mao to reclaim his position at the center of the Chinese government after he'd had his wings clipped somewhat because of the epic egomaniacal fustercluck known as the Great Leap Forward