Great wisdom in your words, it is a wake-up call to dependencies, thank you and I will re-assess. I still shop in-person and choose lines with cashiers, waiting builds character and I want personal interaction and people over machines. I have many friends and certainly our son's generation have been trained (manipulated?) especially during Covid into dependency on Amazon and Apps for shopping with clicks and so many small businesses have shuttered.
Great analytical essay, Peter! You make so many valid points that factually counter the corporate media. I wish you could send this post to the Financial Times, but they would ignore it. I wish that at least corporate media would realize the harm they are doing to America by skewing all of their writing to be against every single policy Trump attempts. Damaging!
So yes, it’s going to be a rough haul for both America and China during this trade war. Trump probably needs to spend more effort to make Americans understand his policies and strategies. We can persevere if we can get behind him.
Few Americans - myself included - understand all of the details of international high finance. But you know what every American understands and resents? Being referred to as “peasants “ by a Chinese official. Big mistake!
As it is there is so much more data one could throw into the mix.
The one point everyone should understand is that China is far more the paper tiger than the rising power. Trade war or no trade war, China has numerous difficulties which it has not yet even begun to address adequately, if at all.
I dare say that very few people in government anywhere understand all the details of international high finance--that includes both President Trump and Xi Jinping.
I cannot stress enough that nobody knows what the ultimate outcome of Trump's trade policies will be, and that includes Donald Trump. He is clear on what he wants to see happen, but that is not at all the same as having a certainty about what will actually happen.
At the core of President Trump's agenda is the idea of "America First". As a matter of policy, this means that the President of the United States is concerned only with American interests and seeks only those policies and actions which benefit America.
This is a fairly radical departure from prior administrations, which sought to cast American trade and foreign policy in a moral framework.
It does mean that President Trump is going to be picking a few fights that others would rather not have. The question is always going to be whether those fights are necessary to put US policy more completely on a footing of "America First".
Will this trade war work to America's advantage? It can. Depending on how much Xi is able to push back will determine whether or not it actuall will.
That is the other point that absolutely must not be ignored in all the talk of tariffs and trade wars, the potential for the end result to be a better trade situation for the United States. There is a risk here, but there is also a potential reward.
"There is no way a reduction in trade relations does not amount to a reduction in GDP for both the United States and China. Similarly, there is no way the disruption in trade relations that is the trade war itself does not amount to a reduction in GDP for both the United States and China."
This trade war is really squeezing the small to mid businesses and the repercussions will reverberate in our communities with foreclosures, unemployment and so so much stress. God have mercy on us.
Businesses which are dependent on imports from China are placed in a very difficult position.
However, it must also be said that they would be in that same position were China to suspend shipments of goods to the United States--as it is in the process of doing with rare earths and certain other minerals important to high-tech industry and manufacture.
Dependency is always vulnerability. There is no escaping that.
Ideally, people, communities, and businesses large and small should strive to minimize dependencies wherever possible. Have alternative sources for the essentials. Have diverse suppliers and customers.
Whether this trade war with China is good policy or bad is going to be a question each person has to answer for themselves. Yet policy questions aside, my encouragement to everyone is to take this trade war as a warning, and give serious thought to reducing their own economic dependencies.
Now is always a good time to work on being more economically resilient.
Great wisdom in your words, it is a wake-up call to dependencies, thank you and I will re-assess. I still shop in-person and choose lines with cashiers, waiting builds character and I want personal interaction and people over machines. I have many friends and certainly our son's generation have been trained (manipulated?) especially during Covid into dependency on Amazon and Apps for shopping with clicks and so many small businesses have shuttered.
Excellent analysis, Peter!
Thank you!
Good analysis once again, Peter. Will be linking it today as usual @https://nothingnewunderthesun2016.com/
Thank you for this thoughtful analysis.
Actually, I should be thanking you. It was your comments on my prior work that occasioned my refreshing my China research.
(All my best article ideas come from my readers!)
Great wisdom in your words, it is a wake-up call to dependencies, thank you and I will re-assess. I still shop in-person and choose lines with cashiers, waiting builds character and I want personal interaction and people over machines. I have many friends and certainly our son's generation have been trained (manipulated?) especially during Covid into dependency on Amazon and Apps for shopping with clicks and so many small businesses have shuttered.
Great analytical essay, Peter! You make so many valid points that factually counter the corporate media. I wish you could send this post to the Financial Times, but they would ignore it. I wish that at least corporate media would realize the harm they are doing to America by skewing all of their writing to be against every single policy Trump attempts. Damaging!
So yes, it’s going to be a rough haul for both America and China during this trade war. Trump probably needs to spend more effort to make Americans understand his policies and strategies. We can persevere if we can get behind him.
Few Americans - myself included - understand all of the details of international high finance. But you know what every American understands and resents? Being referred to as “peasants “ by a Chinese official. Big mistake!
Thanks!
As it is there is so much more data one could throw into the mix.
The one point everyone should understand is that China is far more the paper tiger than the rising power. Trade war or no trade war, China has numerous difficulties which it has not yet even begun to address adequately, if at all.
I dare say that very few people in government anywhere understand all the details of international high finance--that includes both President Trump and Xi Jinping.
I cannot stress enough that nobody knows what the ultimate outcome of Trump's trade policies will be, and that includes Donald Trump. He is clear on what he wants to see happen, but that is not at all the same as having a certainty about what will actually happen.
At the core of President Trump's agenda is the idea of "America First". As a matter of policy, this means that the President of the United States is concerned only with American interests and seeks only those policies and actions which benefit America.
This is a fairly radical departure from prior administrations, which sought to cast American trade and foreign policy in a moral framework.
It does mean that President Trump is going to be picking a few fights that others would rather not have. The question is always going to be whether those fights are necessary to put US policy more completely on a footing of "America First".
Will this trade war work to America's advantage? It can. Depending on how much Xi is able to push back will determine whether or not it actuall will.
That is the other point that absolutely must not be ignored in all the talk of tariffs and trade wars, the potential for the end result to be a better trade situation for the United States. There is a risk here, but there is also a potential reward.
"There is no way a reduction in trade relations does not amount to a reduction in GDP for both the United States and China. Similarly, there is no way the disruption in trade relations that is the trade war itself does not amount to a reduction in GDP for both the United States and China."
This trade war is really squeezing the small to mid businesses and the repercussions will reverberate in our communities with foreclosures, unemployment and so so much stress. God have mercy on us.
Businesses which are dependent on imports from China are placed in a very difficult position.
However, it must also be said that they would be in that same position were China to suspend shipments of goods to the United States--as it is in the process of doing with rare earths and certain other minerals important to high-tech industry and manufacture.
Dependency is always vulnerability. There is no escaping that.
Ideally, people, communities, and businesses large and small should strive to minimize dependencies wherever possible. Have alternative sources for the essentials. Have diverse suppliers and customers.
Whether this trade war with China is good policy or bad is going to be a question each person has to answer for themselves. Yet policy questions aside, my encouragement to everyone is to take this trade war as a warning, and give serious thought to reducing their own economic dependencies.
Now is always a good time to work on being more economically resilient.
Great wisdom in your words, it is a wake-up call to dependencies, thank you and I will re-assess. I still shop in-person and choose lines with cashiers, waiting builds character and I want personal interaction and people over machines. I have many friends and certainly our son's generation have been trained (manipulated?) especially during Covid into dependency on Amazon and Apps for shopping with clicks and so many small businesses have shuttered.
10,000% right, Peter! (Even though I suspect you will automatically correct me in your mind that it’s impossible to be more than 100% right.)