Russia is hanging on, for now, economically speaking. Things are not on the brink of collapse, and Putin’s back does not appear to be against any wall. Obviously that would change if the currency declined much further, and if inflation spun out of control despite the RCB’s efforts to contain it.
We can also fairly state that, if circumstances persist as they are as of this writing, Putin’s capacity to “win” in Ukraine may prove to become increasingly elusive, as a deteriorating economy will make it that much more difficult for Russia to mount the final blow that would finally knock Ukraine out of the war.
Yet such challenges are far from saying that Putin is “losing” the war in Ukraine, or even that he is likely to lose. If Russia cannot deliver a knockout blow, then the outcome of the war quickly reduces to who is able to last the longest militarily and economically in the horrific war of attrition that has become Europe’s most brutal conflict since WW2.
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Links and Sources
Russian Ruble to Chinese Yuan Renminbi Exchange Rate Chart | Xe https://archive.ph/Od1TV
“US Treasury widens sanctions to curb Russia's war production” | Reuters https://archive.ph/RBT3b
“Exclusive: Russia payment hurdles with China partners intensified in August, sources say” | Reuters https://archive.ph/EdgXa
“US targets Russia's Gazprombank with new sanctions, Treasury website shows” | Reuters https://archive.ph/bX8Pr
Russian Ruble to Chinese Yuan Renminbi Exchange Rate Chart | Xe https://archive.ph/97U8u
Chinese Yuan Renminbi to US Dollar Exchange Rate Chart | Xe https://archive.ph/BxQuS
Chinese Yuan Renminbi to US Dollar Exchange Rate Chart | Xe https://archive.ph/wip/2XLRg
DeepStateMAP | День 1010 | Map of the war in Ukraine https://deepstatemap.live/en#9/48.0083002/37.3645020
Moscow Stock Exchange — IMOEX index https://www.moex.com/en/index/IMOEX/archive?from=2022-01-01&till=2024-11-28&sort=TRADEDATE&order=desc
Moscow Stock Exchange — RTSI
Russia Consumer Price Inflation https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/inflation-cpi
Russia Food Price Inflation https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/food-inflation
“Russian butter prices soar, testing Putin pledge to supply both 'guns and butter'“ | Reuters https://archive.ph/WTczU
Russia M0, M1, M2 Money Supply Aggregates https://cbr.ru/vfs/eng/statistics/ms/mse_m22.xlsx
US M1, M2 Money Supply Aggregates https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1BOSw
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