Jobs Report Bloodbath

If we are lucky, the October Employment Situation Summary from the Bureau of Labor Statistics is, to use a recently popularized term, “garbage”.

If we are lucky, there will be massive revisions, and those of a certain age will hear Gilda Radner squeaking out “Never mind!” (bonus points if you get the reference)

If we are not lucky, the October jobs report is telling us the jobs recession has gotten considerably worse.

The report itself was typically droll and understated.

Total nonfarm payroll employment was essentially unchanged in October (+12,000), and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in health care and government. Temporary help services lost jobs. Employment declined in manufacturing due to strike activity.

Let that number sink in: According to the BLS, in all the United States, with all its 335+ millions of people, the economy expanded by only 12,000 jobs during the month of October.

That’s not just a “bad” jobs number. That’s a horrifically bad jobs number. If that number holds up, then we know that the jobs recession in which this country has languished for months has grown considerably worse.

Watch the podcast to learn why!

Links to material presented in each podcast section:

• BLS Employment Situation Summary News Release
  https://archive.md/t0Pf5

• Corrections
  August/September Corrections - https://alfred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1xIKo

• Private Payroll Job Loss
  Private Payroll Job Loss - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1xFdo
  Private Payroll Job Loss By Sector - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1xGw0
  Manufacturing Job Loss September/October - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1xKwA
  Manufacturing Job Loss 2024 - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1xKBm
  Manufacturing Job Loss Indexed - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1xKEM

• Unemployment/Not In Labor Force Growth
  Unemployment - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1xMKd
  Not In Labor Force - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1xMHO

• Full Time Employment Decline
  Full Time Employment Change = https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1xFgH
  Full Time Employment - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1xKTw
  Full Time Employment: Trump vs (Biden-)Harris - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1xR5R

  Part Time Employment - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1xL7n
  Part Time Employment Indexed - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1xL9U
  Multiple Job holders - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1uYUv

• Average Work Week On The Decline
  Average Hours Worked https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1xPHm
  Average Hours Worked By Sector - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1xLkq
  Average Hours Worked Indexed - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1xPKk
  Change In Average Hourly Wage - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1xLIp

  Average Hourly Earnings Indexed - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1xHsZ
  Average Weekly Earnings Indexed - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1xLWp

• What Happened?
  Manufacturing Payroll Trends - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1xM2s
  Continuing Unemployment Claims - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1xFXP
  ADP National Employment Report: Southeastern US -https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1xMcl