Yes. To the engineering mind it’s a case of ‘too many variables, too many unknowns’ - can’t make a mathematical model here. If we all thought that the election year of 2024 was interesting, that’s going to look like a laid-back picnic compared to 2025!
I’m hoping you can help us grasp the ‘high finance’ aspects of this situation. If Russia’s currency and economy are tanking, and China’s economy is tanking, and now Iran’s regime may topple as Syria’s Assad is (possibly) being deposed, what happens to international finances? Does the dollar automatically strengthen, because it is the relatively most stable currency? Or does America’s economy, or stock market, or dollar, get dragged down by the troubles of everyone else - especially in terms of hyperinflation? Is it all way too volatile to predict any outcome? Is it chiefly a matter of relative rates of tanking - which economy, how quickly, and how severely? I’m seeing it as a jumble that is too complicated for anyone to be able to predict any outcomes, but if there’s a mind that could see a clear pattern, it would be yours, Peter.
Yes. To the engineering mind it’s a case of ‘too many variables, too many unknowns’ - can’t make a mathematical model here. If we all thought that the election year of 2024 was interesting, that’s going to look like a laid-back picnic compared to 2025!
Better buckle up! Things are about to get real!
Another great topic, Peter! Thank you, as always.
I’m hoping you can help us grasp the ‘high finance’ aspects of this situation. If Russia’s currency and economy are tanking, and China’s economy is tanking, and now Iran’s regime may topple as Syria’s Assad is (possibly) being deposed, what happens to international finances? Does the dollar automatically strengthen, because it is the relatively most stable currency? Or does America’s economy, or stock market, or dollar, get dragged down by the troubles of everyone else - especially in terms of hyperinflation? Is it all way too volatile to predict any outcome? Is it chiefly a matter of relative rates of tanking - which economy, how quickly, and how severely? I’m seeing it as a jumble that is too complicated for anyone to be able to predict any outcomes, but if there’s a mind that could see a clear pattern, it would be yours, Peter.
A lot depends on how quickly certain events unfold, and in what order events unfold.
Welcome to “interesting times.”