My sense is that yields remain below inflation because the bond market believes that the Fed will pivot when things start to go south. Whether this is correct or not remains to be seen.
I do agree that 75 bps hikes are not enough.
Since the average time a mortgage remains active has been around seven years, mortgage rates should be compared to the 10 year Treasury rate, not the 30, although there isn't much difference right now.
The Fed could easily force long term rates much higher if it wanted to by dumping treasuries onto the market at whatever price the market was willing to pay for them.
My sense is that yields remain below inflation because the bond market believes that the Fed will pivot when things start to go south. Whether this is correct or not remains to be seen.
I do agree that 75 bps hikes are not enough.
Since the average time a mortgage remains active has been around seven years, mortgage rates should be compared to the 10 year Treasury rate, not the 30, although there isn't much difference right now.
The Fed could easily force long term rates much higher if it wanted to by dumping treasuries onto the market at whatever price the market was willing to pay for them.