The waiting is over, and the speculation is now moot.
President Trump made his decision, and that decision was to attack Iran’s uranium enrichment facilities.
Update 5 (02:00AM CDT)
Iranian parliament member Mohamad Manan Raisi, who represents the city of Qom near the Fordow enrichment site, is reported to be saying Fordow sustained only “superficial damage”, although no evidence has been provided either way. Raisi noted that “all sensitive materials” had been removed from the site, which could mean that any uranium which had been present at the site had already been removed.
The major question is whether or not the gas centrifuges essential for the enrichment process are still operational.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has reported no increase in radiation level near the Fordow site. Whether that confirms the claims of only superficial damage to the site or not is unclear.
Iran has launched at least two missile salvos using a total of 27 missiles (Iran’s very first missile attack last week used over 100). Al Jazeera is reporting “extensive damage” in Tel Aviv and Haifa, with the Israeli army reporting 16 injuries.
An apparently pro-Iranian think-tank, the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, is claiming there was “no evidence” that Iran posed a threat to the United States, and that all this attack has accomplished is guaranteeing that Iran would be a nuclear weapon state within the decade.
Apparently Iran’s Supreme Leader saying “Death to America” plus enriching uranium to weapons grade levels is not a threat to the United States in the eyes of the Quincy Institute.
Update 4 (10:00PM CDT)
Iran is claiming that it anticipated the attack and that Fordow has not suffered “irreversible damage”.
Mahdi Mohammadi, an adviser to Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, says Iran had been anticipating the US attack on Fordow.
“The site has long been evacuated and has not suffered any irreversible damage in the attack,” Mohammadi wrote in a social media post.
In his usual Trumpian fashion, President Trump warned Iran against retaliation.
I would expect Iran to at least attempt a retaliation of some kind. Whether Iran has missile capacity left to seriously threaten the US is a question we are likely to see answered within the next 24 hours.
For his part, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries shows once again that he has no real clue what is happening.
“Donald Trump promised to bring peace to the Middle East. He has failed to deliver on that promise. The risk of war has now dramatically increased, and I pray for the safety of our troops in the region who have been put in harm’s way,” Jeffries said in a statement, adding that Trump “misled the country about his intentions”.
“Risk of war”? It’s safe to say there’s been a war with Iran for the past 8 days. President Trump can’t increase the “risk of war” because there’s already a war.
Intriguingly, the UN Secretary-General, António Guterres, expresses “concern” over the attacks and is somewhat critical of the United States, but stops short of any condemnation of the US for its attack.
I am gravely alarmed by the use of force by the United States against Iran today. This is a dangerous escalation in a region already on the edge – and a direct threat to international peace and security.
There is a growing risk that this conflict could rapidly get out of control – with catastrophic consequences for civilians, the region, and the world.
Iran is proving to have very few friends in the world.
Update 3 (9:35PM CDT)
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has released a video message congratulating President Trump on the apparently successful US attack on Fordow.
NASA’s fire information system is detecting a “significant heat-generating event” near Fordow. It would seem at least some damage was done to the facility.
This being the weekend it is too soon to tell how much oil prices will spike because of these attacks. A price surge is anticipated, however, for obvious reasons.
Update 2 (9:11PM CDT)
President Trump’s address was brief, celebratory, and contained little that was not in his earlier Truth Social post.
One point warrants emphasis: President Trump called on Iran to make peace or further attacks will follow.
In for a penny, in for a pound.
Military officials speaking on condition of anonymity reported 6 GBU-57 bombs were used on Fordow and 30 submarine-launched TLAM missiles were fired against Natanz and Isfahan.
Update 1 (8:36PM CDT)
Iranian officials have confirmed the strikes. Still no confirmation of the damage done particularly to Fordow.
Obviously, the bombings create heightened risks to the 40,000 US troops stationed in the Middle East.
Starting Point
A short while ago, President Trump posted this message to his Truth Social account:
Presumably, this means B2 bombers delivered GBU-57 “bunker buster” bombs to the three sites. Aside from Trump’s declaration that Fordow is “gone”, precise damage assessments are not known as of this writing.
The responses from various quarters appear to be along predictable lines.
The Houthis in Yemen said this was the “beginning of war”.
Mohamed al-Farah, a member of the Yemeni group’s political bureau, says it is clear that Trump wants the hostilities to be quick and for the war to end.
However, “destroying a nuclear facility here and there is not the end of the war, but it’s the beginning,” al-Farah said in a statement.
Congressman Thomas “Cranky” Massie was his usual petulant self.
The ever unctuous Senator Lindsey Graham was predictably thrilled.
For myself, I stand by what I said earlier on this matter:
I do not want the US to attack Iran. I will continue to support President Trump if he does order the US to attack Iran.
Because the world cannot allow Iran to develop nuclear weapons.
I pray this will not be the start of a wider escalation, but President Trump has my support and my prayers in this challenging moment.
President Trump has said he will be addressing the nation from the White House at 10PM Eastern.
Welcome to interesting times!
This story is still developing.
🙏it doesn’t escalate. Iran is intent on annihilating Israel and refused to stop uranium enrichment, I’m not sure what other option would work? Iran kept/keeps firing missiles into civilian neighborhoods, Israel gives evacuation notice and warns and selectively targets military and terrorist units. How else do you stop a bully who wants to obliterate you from the face of the earth? May God have mercy.
🥺😳🙏🙏🙏🙏