Peter, thank you for your factual reporting - you’ve already answered many of my questions. Now I’m going to ask for a bit of your speculation, as I value your analytical reasoning and knowledge so highly.
There are only about 2500 U.S. troops stationed in Iraq, so do you think they are the likeliest first target for retaliatory strikes by Iran? Congress is supposed to declare war; are they likely to do so today or Monday? Is this bombing likely to rejuvenate Hezbollah, or are they already finished as a war factor? And - this one is silly, but still - has anyone commented besides me that Fordow sounds an awful lot like the evil place Fordor, from “Lord of the Rings”?
Peter, Jeffrey Jaxen has just posted in Notes that the NYPost has written that Iran’s parliament has ordered the straits of Hormuz to be closed. (Iran’s Supreme Council has to okay this.) I did not think Iran would do this, as it will royally tick off all of the rest of the nations that move their oil through this passage. The heavily-armed Saudis alone are not likely to tolerate this closure for long. Any thoughts?
What that implies for Iran's main oil terminal at Bandar-e Abbas, which is just on the Persian Gulf side of the Strait is unclear.
Almost all Iranian oil production flows via Bandar-e Abbas to China. Europe is a primary consumer of the rest of Persian Gulf oil production.
The country which is not heavily dependent on Middle Eastern oil: The United States.
To quote Frank Herbert's "Dune": "The spice must flow." China, Europe, and the rest of the industrialized world relies on Middle Eastern oil. To the extent that Iran has the capacity to close the Strait of Hormuz and stop the flow of Middle Eastern oil would have significant economic ramifications for China, Europe, and other parts of the globe.
The primary impact to the US would be in the form of surging oil prices (which are certain to go ballistic as soon as futures trading resumes this evening).
Does the US Navy have the assets nearby to contest the Strait's closure? That might actually be why there have been US naval redeployments to the region.
Until we see the shape of Iran's retaliation we should not count this conflict as anywhere near over.
Thus, China has grounds to throw a fit. Another economic blow to their economy is the last thing they need. Peter, do you anticipate a response, of any kind, from China?
China is already condemning the US strikes, but their geopolitical posturing is that they wish to be a mediating presence to re-establish diplomacy and dialog on Iran's nuclear weapons programs.
As of this moment, there have been no reports of retaliatory strikes by Iran against US assets in the Middle East (which altogether number approximately 40,000 troops).
Certainly the closest assets to Iran are likely to be the most tempting targets for an Iran retaliation--and despite US warnings against it, I expect Iran will attempt a retaliation of some sort.
As for Congressional authorization, one of the realities Congress has to face is that they have allowed the Bush-era Authorizations to Use Military Force (AUMFs) to serve as near-blanket authorization for military action throughout the Middle East. The first AUMF in particular stands as authorization for what has come to be known as the Global War on Terror (GWOT), and as Iran has provably been the world's leading state sponsor of terrorism, I would not be at all surprised to learn that President Trump invokes that same authority for Operation Midnight Hammer.
Congress has had the opportunity to cancel the Bush-era AUMFs and has not done so. Congressman Thomas Massie earlier last week proposed a bill to prohibit any military action against Iran without explicit Congressional approval, but I do not believe that bill went anywhere. (I have criticized Massie in the past for his reticence in building any sort of legislative coalition to support his particular policy stances, and this would be a glaring example of why that sort of political maturity is requisite in a legislator)
Given the history of Presidents ordering various military actions even over just the past 50 years, the supposition of the Administration is sure to be that Congress had already given the requisite authorization in the Bush-era AUMFs. Politically the Democrats are going to argue against that notion, but legally I do not see their position prevailing.
I ask about the Fordow/Fordor comparison, not to be flippant, but because optics can really matter in wartime. If half of the West is subconsciously thinking “evil Fordor” when they hear “Fordow”, that subconscious bias can be a factor in supporting Trump’s move.
Your headline says it all. Peter, don't even need to read this. "TRUMP BOMBS IRAN"!
Not the US as Congress has declared no war against Iran.
The people really didn't want this except for the neocon think tanks like the Atlantic Council and the hard line Zionists. Pure "BS" and a violation of our Constitution - Article I, Section 8, Clause 11:
Getting so sick of this empire building "BS', and the MIGA ( Make Israel Great Again ) rather than the MAGA. About ready to hang it all up. Have been trying to get the truth out now for almost 10 years, and you know what. I don't think anyone really gives a Rat's Aass anymore. May just pack it all up and watch the sheep stare at their cellphones as they go into oblivion.
🙏it doesn’t escalate. Iran is intent on annihilating Israel and refused to stop uranium enrichment, I’m not sure what other option would work? Iran kept/keeps firing missiles into civilian neighborhoods, Israel gives evacuation notice and warns and selectively targets military and terrorist units. How else do you stop a bully who wants to obliterate you from the face of the earth? May God have mercy.
The thing about Trump and his administration is they offered better deals to Iran for getting rid of their nuclear program than were reasonably expectable. I think blowing those off is what cemented the program's threat in Trump's mind.
The reality is that even at 60% enrichment, Iran's terror network meant that its enrichment facilities posed a significant radiological terror threat to the world even without the completion of an actual atomic bomb.
That's the aspect of this which many have overlooked. Iran never needed to develop complete nuclear weapons capacity to pose a security threat to the world.
If Fordow has been seriously damaged or destroyed, that is a massive setback for the Iranian nuclear weapons program. With the number of nuclear scientists Israel has been able to unalive through Operation Narnia, it could be quite some time before Iran would recover from that.
God help us all.
Peter, thank you for your factual reporting - you’ve already answered many of my questions. Now I’m going to ask for a bit of your speculation, as I value your analytical reasoning and knowledge so highly.
There are only about 2500 U.S. troops stationed in Iraq, so do you think they are the likeliest first target for retaliatory strikes by Iran? Congress is supposed to declare war; are they likely to do so today or Monday? Is this bombing likely to rejuvenate Hezbollah, or are they already finished as a war factor? And - this one is silly, but still - has anyone commented besides me that Fordow sounds an awful lot like the evil place Fordor, from “Lord of the Rings”?
Peter, Jeffrey Jaxen has just posted in Notes that the NYPost has written that Iran’s parliament has ordered the straits of Hormuz to be closed. (Iran’s Supreme Council has to okay this.) I did not think Iran would do this, as it will royally tick off all of the rest of the nations that move their oil through this passage. The heavily-armed Saudis alone are not likely to tolerate this closure for long. Any thoughts?
Russian media (RIA Novosti) is reporting that the Iranian Parliament is calling for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed.
https://archive.ph/D7E5P
What that implies for Iran's main oil terminal at Bandar-e Abbas, which is just on the Persian Gulf side of the Strait is unclear.
Almost all Iranian oil production flows via Bandar-e Abbas to China. Europe is a primary consumer of the rest of Persian Gulf oil production.
The country which is not heavily dependent on Middle Eastern oil: The United States.
To quote Frank Herbert's "Dune": "The spice must flow." China, Europe, and the rest of the industrialized world relies on Middle Eastern oil. To the extent that Iran has the capacity to close the Strait of Hormuz and stop the flow of Middle Eastern oil would have significant economic ramifications for China, Europe, and other parts of the globe.
The primary impact to the US would be in the form of surging oil prices (which are certain to go ballistic as soon as futures trading resumes this evening).
Does the US Navy have the assets nearby to contest the Strait's closure? That might actually be why there have been US naval redeployments to the region.
Until we see the shape of Iran's retaliation we should not count this conflict as anywhere near over.
Thus, China has grounds to throw a fit. Another economic blow to their economy is the last thing they need. Peter, do you anticipate a response, of any kind, from China?
China is already condemning the US strikes, but their geopolitical posturing is that they wish to be a mediating presence to re-establish diplomacy and dialog on Iran's nuclear weapons programs.
https://archive.ph/oCdI3
As of this moment, there have been no reports of retaliatory strikes by Iran against US assets in the Middle East (which altogether number approximately 40,000 troops).
Certainly the closest assets to Iran are likely to be the most tempting targets for an Iran retaliation--and despite US warnings against it, I expect Iran will attempt a retaliation of some sort.
As for Congressional authorization, one of the realities Congress has to face is that they have allowed the Bush-era Authorizations to Use Military Force (AUMFs) to serve as near-blanket authorization for military action throughout the Middle East. The first AUMF in particular stands as authorization for what has come to be known as the Global War on Terror (GWOT), and as Iran has provably been the world's leading state sponsor of terrorism, I would not be at all surprised to learn that President Trump invokes that same authority for Operation Midnight Hammer.
Congress has had the opportunity to cancel the Bush-era AUMFs and has not done so. Congressman Thomas Massie earlier last week proposed a bill to prohibit any military action against Iran without explicit Congressional approval, but I do not believe that bill went anywhere. (I have criticized Massie in the past for his reticence in building any sort of legislative coalition to support his particular policy stances, and this would be a glaring example of why that sort of political maturity is requisite in a legislator)
Given the history of Presidents ordering various military actions even over just the past 50 years, the supposition of the Administration is sure to be that Congress had already given the requisite authorization in the Bush-era AUMFs. Politically the Democrats are going to argue against that notion, but legally I do not see their position prevailing.
I ask about the Fordow/Fordor comparison, not to be flippant, but because optics can really matter in wartime. If half of the West is subconsciously thinking “evil Fordor” when they hear “Fordow”, that subconscious bias can be a factor in supporting Trump’s move.
Oh, Mordor, not Fordor! See how the sleep-deprived subconscious conflates the evil target of Fordow with the evil target in a book last read in 1971?
See how I shouldn’t post anything at all at 4:30 in the morning?
Your headline says it all. Peter, don't even need to read this. "TRUMP BOMBS IRAN"!
Not the US as Congress has declared no war against Iran.
The people really didn't want this except for the neocon think tanks like the Atlantic Council and the hard line Zionists. Pure "BS" and a violation of our Constitution - Article I, Section 8, Clause 11:
[The Congress shall have Power . . . ] To declare War, grant Letters of Marque and Reprisal, and make Rules concerning Captures on Land and Water; . . . - https://constitution.congress.gov/browse/essay/artI-S8-C11-1-1/ALDE_00013587/
Getting so sick of this empire building "BS', and the MIGA ( Make Israel Great Again ) rather than the MAGA. About ready to hang it all up. Have been trying to get the truth out now for almost 10 years, and you know what. I don't think anyone really gives a Rat's Aass anymore. May just pack it all up and watch the sheep stare at their cellphones as they go into oblivion.
🙏it doesn’t escalate. Iran is intent on annihilating Israel and refused to stop uranium enrichment, I’m not sure what other option would work? Iran kept/keeps firing missiles into civilian neighborhoods, Israel gives evacuation notice and warns and selectively targets military and terrorist units. How else do you stop a bully who wants to obliterate you from the face of the earth? May God have mercy.
I've dealt with bullies.
The way you stop bullies is you hurt them. Badly. You make them bleed profusely.
Was this inevitable? Perhaps.
Will it escalate? It may.
Can the world tolerate a nuclearized Iran? Not even for a moment.
The thing about Trump and his administration is they offered better deals to Iran for getting rid of their nuclear program than were reasonably expectable. I think blowing those off is what cemented the program's threat in Trump's mind.
Possibly.
The reality is that even at 60% enrichment, Iran's terror network meant that its enrichment facilities posed a significant radiological terror threat to the world even without the completion of an actual atomic bomb.
That's the aspect of this which many have overlooked. Iran never needed to develop complete nuclear weapons capacity to pose a security threat to the world.
🥺😳🙏🙏🙏🙏
The IRGC-affiliated Tasnim news agency is confirming the attacks, but has not made any comment on damage done (or not done).
https://archive.ph/2rROb
If Fordow has been seriously damaged or destroyed, that is a massive setback for the Iranian nuclear weapons program. With the number of nuclear scientists Israel has been able to unalive through Operation Narnia, it could be quite some time before Iran would recover from that.