I suspect the impact of AI in the jobs market will be quite a bit less than many are predicting. The reality of AI is greatly exceeded by the hype of AI.
I’m thinking there will be a few trends in the coming months:
Manufacturing jobs will continue to decline, because of lingering effects from the Biden administration, until - several months, or a year-plus from now - they start to increase, as tariffs drive jobs creation to the U.S.;
The jobs situation overall will continue to improve, as ICE and self-deportations lead to more openings for workers and increased wages;
The new AI industries - IF they pan out anywhere close to the hype - lead to an economic boom similar to the one in the 1990s after the invention of the World Wide Web.
BUT all of this could fizzle if Trump’s plans are sabotaged, or a new major crisis (WW3, the San Andreas fault line cracking in a 9.3 earthquake, etc.) upends everything. Most worrying to me is this new, delusional mindset of young Democratic Socialists in the governing bodies of our cities. Their deranged laws and ordinances could undermine every economic plan of the Trump administration, and are a real threat to civilization!
So the future picture is still up in the air - as always. It’s wonderful to have your factual analysis, Peter, to give us first glimpses and understandings. Thank you!
The long term outlook for manufacturing is probably fairly good. Despite what the various propaganda outlets maintain, China is in terminal collapse, and I am starting to believe Europe is not far behind.
There is a tremendous amount of manufacturing capacity that is quite literally going to disappear over the coming years (Peter Zeihan's timeline is debatable but he's right about China ultimately collapsing). That is capacity which will have to be replaced somewhere, and that creates considerable opportunity for American businesses to expand their total plant capacity.
America's short-term challenge is resolving the current toxicity in labor markets so that such opportunities can be exploited.
Yes! You probably saw the Epoch Times article a few days ago about the Hudson Institute’s discussion event regarding “ the coming collapse of China”, and dealing with post-CCP China. I thought, interesting that they are holding RIGHT NOW a meeting about China after the CCP collapses! You’ve been right for years, Peter, about the CCP’s inevitable failure. And, as you say there will be huge changes and opportunities in manufacturing for the rest of the world. My hope is that AI will be implemented in ways that allow a decent wage for factory workers yet still yield affordable goods as a result of improved efficiencies THAT is the American way!
However, having paused to read in detail the fantasy detailed in the Epoch Times, that one is more accurately described as fascistic fetishizing while mentally masturbating to the delusion of the United States simply conquering the Middle Kingdom.
There is not one part of that “plan” that is in even the same spiral arm of the galaxy as reality. Exactly how do these experts envision the US seizing Chinese bank assets (hint: think troops and invasion and similarly lunatic nuttiness)?
Too much or too little but drugs were definitely a factor in the development of the Epoch Times’ “plan” for China.
Exquisitely stated, Peter, and, as always, you are level-headed and grounded. Most geopolitical and economic analysts ultimately extrapolate to fantasy and wishful thinking. (I also wondered, just how were they planning to “seize” assets?) I’m always impressed that you don’t - and this is one of the reasons why I wish you could be advising our top leaders.
Here’s what I find fascinating in this China situation. All of the most powerful entities in the world - the Russian oligarchs, the NATO top dogs, the globalist billionaires, etc. - can see the trajectory of the CCP’s decline, and that means there is now a race amongst them to influence that trajectory to their own advantage. What machinations and manipulations are going on behind the scenes that we don’t know about? It will affect the outcome of China in ways that aren’t apparent now. Are pro-democracy activists in Hong Kong, Chinese expatriates in Vancouver, and global financial manipulators being harnessed by plans to steer China in a particular direction? As the CCP implodes, the outcome could be entirely different from what we might rationally assume at this time. The very fact that think tanks are actively and openly discussing how to “manage” a post-CCP world means that the pace of the impending changes is accelerating, and wow, could this get interesting!
I’m looking forward to your always-insightful analysis of the coming wild ride, Peter. You are just the BEST at this!
Unless Xi Jinping is replaced by the Chinese equivalent of Gorbachev, post-CCP China will be a return to the Warring States phase of their historical cycle. The "experts" who don't realize that aren't paying attention.
All "plans" for post-CCP China can be dismissed as pure fantasy.
Both China and Europe have a logistics issue; the products they make, especially physically large and heavy ones must be shipped by sea.
With recent worlwide political unrest and violence impacting sea shipping lanes, the cost and risk increases making American production with overland rail transportation economically competitive.
China's economic issues are similar to ours; heavy debt load by private investors with limited domestic purchasing capacity. Real estate markets there are overextended.
Europe and China have a demographic issue as well, one that everyone likes to ignore.
China is in terminal decline because they are running out of people. Their efforts to reverse the demographic disaster of the One Child Policy have all failed. Now Beijing is trying to boost consumption at a time when the bulk of their population is past prime consumption age (people over 45 are not going to consume as much as people between 20 and 45 in every economic strata).
Europe is also facing a demographic crisis, although their situation is not as dire as China’s. Part of the logic behind their decision to be welcoming to migrants was an effort to compensate for declining demographics by importing people. Unfortunately they didn't consider the challenges of cultural assimilation, and so are facing the breakdown in the societal fabric.
Logistics issues are economic opportunities, and never economic crises except in the very short term.
We will have a much better insight in to the numbers when employment by industry segment numbers are posted.
I suspect construction employment will increase. Summer's here, outdoor site work is ramping up in the northern 1/2 of the country. Also, owners may want to complete work before prices increase due to inflationary pressures, real or percieved.
As Peter St Onge aptly points out today AI could be replacing many jobs shortly. "Where are the New Jobs After AI" . This will definitely change the numbers going forward. https://www.profstonge.com/p/what-are-the-new-jobs-after-ai
I suspect the impact of AI in the jobs market will be quite a bit less than many are predicting. The reality of AI is greatly exceeded by the hype of AI.
I’m thinking there will be a few trends in the coming months:
Manufacturing jobs will continue to decline, because of lingering effects from the Biden administration, until - several months, or a year-plus from now - they start to increase, as tariffs drive jobs creation to the U.S.;
The jobs situation overall will continue to improve, as ICE and self-deportations lead to more openings for workers and increased wages;
The new AI industries - IF they pan out anywhere close to the hype - lead to an economic boom similar to the one in the 1990s after the invention of the World Wide Web.
BUT all of this could fizzle if Trump’s plans are sabotaged, or a new major crisis (WW3, the San Andreas fault line cracking in a 9.3 earthquake, etc.) upends everything. Most worrying to me is this new, delusional mindset of young Democratic Socialists in the governing bodies of our cities. Their deranged laws and ordinances could undermine every economic plan of the Trump administration, and are a real threat to civilization!
So the future picture is still up in the air - as always. It’s wonderful to have your factual analysis, Peter, to give us first glimpses and understandings. Thank you!
The long term outlook for manufacturing is probably fairly good. Despite what the various propaganda outlets maintain, China is in terminal collapse, and I am starting to believe Europe is not far behind.
There is a tremendous amount of manufacturing capacity that is quite literally going to disappear over the coming years (Peter Zeihan's timeline is debatable but he's right about China ultimately collapsing). That is capacity which will have to be replaced somewhere, and that creates considerable opportunity for American businesses to expand their total plant capacity.
America's short-term challenge is resolving the current toxicity in labor markets so that such opportunities can be exploited.
Yes! You probably saw the Epoch Times article a few days ago about the Hudson Institute’s discussion event regarding “ the coming collapse of China”, and dealing with post-CCP China. I thought, interesting that they are holding RIGHT NOW a meeting about China after the CCP collapses! You’ve been right for years, Peter, about the CCP’s inevitable failure. And, as you say there will be huge changes and opportunities in manufacturing for the rest of the world. My hope is that AI will be implemented in ways that allow a decent wage for factory workers yet still yield affordable goods as a result of improved efficiencies THAT is the American way!
Here’s the link to the Epoch Times article, for those who are interested:
Experts Lay Out Plan for Post-CCP China
https://link.theepochtimes.com/mkt_app/china/experts-lay-out-plan-for-post-ccp-china-5890373?utm_medium=app&c=share_pos3&pid=iOS_app_share&utm_source=iOS_app_share
All “plans” for post-CCP China are fantasy.
However, having paused to read in detail the fantasy detailed in the Epoch Times, that one is more accurately described as fascistic fetishizing while mentally masturbating to the delusion of the United States simply conquering the Middle Kingdom.
There is not one part of that “plan” that is in even the same spiral arm of the galaxy as reality. Exactly how do these experts envision the US seizing Chinese bank assets (hint: think troops and invasion and similarly lunatic nuttiness)?
Too much or too little but drugs were definitely a factor in the development of the Epoch Times’ “plan” for China.
Exquisitely stated, Peter, and, as always, you are level-headed and grounded. Most geopolitical and economic analysts ultimately extrapolate to fantasy and wishful thinking. (I also wondered, just how were they planning to “seize” assets?) I’m always impressed that you don’t - and this is one of the reasons why I wish you could be advising our top leaders.
Here’s what I find fascinating in this China situation. All of the most powerful entities in the world - the Russian oligarchs, the NATO top dogs, the globalist billionaires, etc. - can see the trajectory of the CCP’s decline, and that means there is now a race amongst them to influence that trajectory to their own advantage. What machinations and manipulations are going on behind the scenes that we don’t know about? It will affect the outcome of China in ways that aren’t apparent now. Are pro-democracy activists in Hong Kong, Chinese expatriates in Vancouver, and global financial manipulators being harnessed by plans to steer China in a particular direction? As the CCP implodes, the outcome could be entirely different from what we might rationally assume at this time. The very fact that think tanks are actively and openly discussing how to “manage” a post-CCP world means that the pace of the impending changes is accelerating, and wow, could this get interesting!
I’m looking forward to your always-insightful analysis of the coming wild ride, Peter. You are just the BEST at this!
Unless Xi Jinping is replaced by the Chinese equivalent of Gorbachev, post-CCP China will be a return to the Warring States phase of their historical cycle. The "experts" who don't realize that aren't paying attention.
All "plans" for post-CCP China can be dismissed as pure fantasy.
Both China and Europe have a logistics issue; the products they make, especially physically large and heavy ones must be shipped by sea.
With recent worlwide political unrest and violence impacting sea shipping lanes, the cost and risk increases making American production with overland rail transportation economically competitive.
China's economic issues are similar to ours; heavy debt load by private investors with limited domestic purchasing capacity. Real estate markets there are overextended.
Europe and China have a demographic issue as well, one that everyone likes to ignore.
China is in terminal decline because they are running out of people. Their efforts to reverse the demographic disaster of the One Child Policy have all failed. Now Beijing is trying to boost consumption at a time when the bulk of their population is past prime consumption age (people over 45 are not going to consume as much as people between 20 and 45 in every economic strata).
Europe is also facing a demographic crisis, although their situation is not as dire as China’s. Part of the logic behind their decision to be welcoming to migrants was an effort to compensate for declining demographics by importing people. Unfortunately they didn't consider the challenges of cultural assimilation, and so are facing the breakdown in the societal fabric.
Logistics issues are economic opportunities, and never economic crises except in the very short term.
We will have a much better insight in to the numbers when employment by industry segment numbers are posted.
I suspect construction employment will increase. Summer's here, outdoor site work is ramping up in the northern 1/2 of the country. Also, owners may want to complete work before prices increase due to inflationary pressures, real or percieved.
Labor numbers are eternally a moving target.
That said, I will be interested to see what the July ESS holds.