Trump The Deal Maker

Is Donald Trump Using Deals To Isolate Iran And Push Them To Keep Negotiating?

President Trump The Deal Maker was apparently on full display in Saudi Arabia.

Not only has Saudi Arabia committed to purchases of $142 million of US military equipment, but President Trump also touted additional investment from a variety of companies, including Amazon, Oracle, Qualcom, and Johnson & Johnson.

Additionally, in a move that may mollify some of his foreign policy critics, he announced his intention to lift sanctions on Syria, while encouraging Iran to press forward with negotiations on the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program.

He said that he would never allow Iran to obtain a nuclear weapon. But he said he was ready for a deal and pushed Tehran to take the olive branch he was offering. He also announced he would remove sanctions on Syria, delivering a significant boost to the country’s new government that he said was requested by the Saudi crown prince.

The sanctions date to the long, brutal reign of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who was ousted in December, and were intended to inflict major pain on his economy. The measures were left in place after Assad’s fall because of uncertainty about the intentions of Syria’s new leaders, who renounced a past affiliation with al-Qaeda. The sanctions also provided leverage as Washington pushed the former rebels to be as inclusive as possible as they solidified control over the country.

The combination of initiatives is intriguing, and potentially gives insight into Trump’s strategy on the Middle East.

The Saudi investment in US weapons continues to tie Saudi security interests to the United States. So long as Saudi Arabia is buying US weapons, the kingdom is not buying Russian or Chinese weapons—aircraft in particular.

Lifting sanctions on Syria may create a diplomatic opening in Damascus, most likely in parallel with NATO ally Turkey, which has been a major backer of the militia that ousted Bashar al-Assad last year.

Both the arms deal and the opening to Syria have the potential to further undermine Iran’s pursuit of hegemonic influence in the region. The collapse of the Assad regime, which Iran had supported in a bid to extend its influence into the Levant, has greatly diminished Iran’s ability to support the militias and terrorist groups it supports in the region, which in turn as weakened Iran’s influence over the Arab states.

If Syria moves into either a Turkish or US sphere of influence, Iran’s sphere of influence becomes permanently reduced. Saudi Arabia having additional weapons and equipment with which to contend with the Houthis—whose bases in Yemen also happen to be just across the border from Saudi Arabia—could place additional pressure on that militant group and would further weaken Iran in the eyes of the various Arab states.

The nexus of this flurry of deal making thus appears to be isolating Iran even more, which may explain Iran’s interest in revisiting the old nuclear deal with the leading European powers Britain, France, and Germany—collectively termed the “E3”. Whether Iran’s ambition is to play the E3 off against Donald Trump or simply to return to the previous arrangement over items such as uranium enrichment, Iran is facing diplomatic pressure to negotiate a nuclear weapons deal with “somebody”.

Given that Donald Trump has drawn a red line that Iran must not acquire a nuclear weapon or the means to quickly produce nuclear weapons, an isolated Iran is an Iran with few alternatives but to negotiate on uranium enrichment.

Will President Trump’s deal-making strategy prevail in the Middle East? Can that strategy put enough pressure on Iran that the Islamic Republic will surrender its nuclear weapons program in order not to be completely shut out of Middle Eastern affairs?

Whether his tactics will bear good fruit or bad remains very much the unanswered question at this time.

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