There are so many pieces and possible moves in this 3D chess game that only a genius mind like yours, Peter, can fathom the outcomes of each shift.
Suppose that Iran, in desperation, turns to China for an alliance. I don’t really see them on the same page culturally, but they could be useful to each other for a while (until they turn on each other). Peter, what would you guess would be the result of such an alliance?
The result of an Iran-China alliance would be not much.
China's problem is its economy.
Historically it has built its economy first through exports and then through a housing bubble. China began inflating the housing bubble in the 2010s after they passed the Lewis inflection point, where all their "surplus" labor had been pulled into productive employment, and thus wages had to start rising.
Xi punctured the housing bubble with his "three red lines", and that bubble is still deflating. That leaves exports as China's only means of resuscitating their economy.
Iran can and does provide China with oil, but that's about all it can provide. It can't provide an export market to replace the US or Europe.
Iran's problem is the country is crumbling after decades of mismanagement by the mullahs. Even the water infrastructure is breaking down.
The collapse of the Assad regime last year, coupled with the tit-for-tat strikes exchanged between Israel and Iran, should the world that, militarily, Iran is a paper tiger. Iran leans heavily on the Quds force working with militants and terrorists because they don't have the conventional military heft to project power any other way.
Neither country can offer what the other needs, which is the fundamental prerequisite for any alliance to be successful.
Your truly brilliant insight and analysis is a joy, Peter! Seriously, I should have to pay big money for this. Thank you!
So, Iran is a paper tiger, and China is a crippled paper tiger, along with Syria and almost everyone else in the world who could work to undermine America’s interests. Trump is holding all the best cards and knows how to play them. It truly could be a new golden age blossoming for America!
I don't know that Trump is holding all the best cards.
But if he's successful at persuading the nations of the world to seek business deals and trade deals with the US, and by so doing isolates China and Iran, he will have masterfully played the cards he has been dealt.
We do well to remember that in poker you don't play the cards you play the players.
There are so many pieces and possible moves in this 3D chess game that only a genius mind like yours, Peter, can fathom the outcomes of each shift.
Suppose that Iran, in desperation, turns to China for an alliance. I don’t really see them on the same page culturally, but they could be useful to each other for a while (until they turn on each other). Peter, what would you guess would be the result of such an alliance?
The result of an Iran-China alliance would be not much.
China's problem is its economy.
Historically it has built its economy first through exports and then through a housing bubble. China began inflating the housing bubble in the 2010s after they passed the Lewis inflection point, where all their "surplus" labor had been pulled into productive employment, and thus wages had to start rising.
Xi punctured the housing bubble with his "three red lines", and that bubble is still deflating. That leaves exports as China's only means of resuscitating their economy.
Iran can and does provide China with oil, but that's about all it can provide. It can't provide an export market to replace the US or Europe.
Iran's problem is the country is crumbling after decades of mismanagement by the mullahs. Even the water infrastructure is breaking down.
The collapse of the Assad regime last year, coupled with the tit-for-tat strikes exchanged between Israel and Iran, should the world that, militarily, Iran is a paper tiger. Iran leans heavily on the Quds force working with militants and terrorists because they don't have the conventional military heft to project power any other way.
Neither country can offer what the other needs, which is the fundamental prerequisite for any alliance to be successful.
Your truly brilliant insight and analysis is a joy, Peter! Seriously, I should have to pay big money for this. Thank you!
So, Iran is a paper tiger, and China is a crippled paper tiger, along with Syria and almost everyone else in the world who could work to undermine America’s interests. Trump is holding all the best cards and knows how to play them. It truly could be a new golden age blossoming for America!
I don't know that Trump is holding all the best cards.
But if he's successful at persuading the nations of the world to seek business deals and trade deals with the US, and by so doing isolates China and Iran, he will have masterfully played the cards he has been dealt.
We do well to remember that in poker you don't play the cards you play the players.
You always know the best responses, Peter. Anyone who can say such wise things first thing in the morning is just amazing!