Trump's Presidency is without a doubt the most muscular Administration we have seen quite a few years, perhaps even since Ronald Reagan.
That's not going to be an unalloyed good over time — it never is — but he said quite explicitly in yesterday's press briefing that his foreign policy revolves around American dominance. He is definitely delivering on that goal.
Peter, I guess my first question would be "Why are we expanding American Power?" To be the "Big Kid" on the block? To take other countries' oil? Just what is the purpose of Gunboat diplomacy?
This is most definitely "not" about Narco-terrorism. It's once again about regime change and stealing resources.
"Venezuela Attacks U.S. President Trump and First Lady Captured; Will Face Trial and Justice in Venezuela" ( https://bracingviews.substack.com/p/venezuela-attacks-us ) which looks at a "what if", if it had been the other way around. Good insights.
When you strip away all the moralizing and political philosophies, that's what governments do, and have done since the Pharaohs. That's what Trump has been doing since Day 1 of his return to the Oval Office. He's doing it in ways that turn the globalist "rules based order" on its side, like by brokering ceasefires and peace deals instead of just backing one side or the other in all the brush wars around the world, but people should have no illusions that President Trump wants America to be a robust and powerful global hegemon. For Donald Trump, "America First" means America sitting at the head of the table.
This is one of those moments when we can see not only that populism is not libertarianism, but that Donald Trump is absolutely no libertarian, and never has been.
Whether that's a good or bad thing depends entirely on what political outcomes you hope to see in the world.
If one adopts the Trumpian narrative that the original nationalization of Venezeula's oil industry was basically theft, the conclusion that US oil majors getting to go in and restart that same oil industry is not only legal just just is rather easily reached.
If one insists on a strictly mechanistic reading of obscure statutes with an occasional reference to "international law", that might be a more difficult conclusion to achieve.
However, even if Maduro's VP is allowed to remain in office, I don't see a scenario unfolding where the oil majors are blocked from going in and rehabilitating Venezuela's oil sector. Whether legal or illegal, barring a sudden shift in how events are unfolding in Venezuela, it's what's going to happen.
Not sure how anyone gets to WW3 from here. There's nothing for anyone to really fight over, and the only ones who would like to see Maduro restored to office--Russia and China--do not have the military power to make it happen.
President Trump has been building up a naval presence around Venezuela for weeks. One thing we never saw in response was Russia and China deploying naval assets of their own. That alone tells you which country has real power projection capacities.
Thank you, this helps as my family thinks this is theft by Trump rather than righting wrongs -we’re not used to Good taking action. Perhaps this will jump start some economy and job growth…God have mercy on us and may God bless you for all your hard work keeping us informed and grounded in facts and reality.
I am hopeful this will prove to be economically stimulative in a sustainable way. Certainly American oil refineries getting access to Venezuelan crude is going to have some economic positive knock-on effects.
Refineries are optimized for particular crudes, and many US refineries are optimized for Venezuela's "heavy sour" crude (meaning the crude is more viscous with a higher sulfur content). Being able to refine Venezuelan crude will mean those refineries will operate at greater efficiency, which will if nothing else continue to push energy prices down in the US, particularly at the gasoline pump.
Whether the oil majors being able to rehabilitate Venezuela's oil industry produces jobs and an uptick in manufacturing here in the United States remains to be seen, but it is a definite possible outcome. We won't know how that scenario unfolds for a few months yet, but this could yet be the sort of game changer the US needs for Scott Bessent's rosy economic projections for 2026 to come true.
This is a massive loss for China. They invested billions into the regimes and that platform evaporated, or at least it is greatly degraded. That’s good for the U.S. Democrats are in disarray. They have been forced to defend Clinton in the Epstein Files, Somali fraud, and now, Maduro. I expect Democrats will aggressively pursue action in the courts. Trump is in total control. Congressional Republicans will continue bumbling which is problematic.
This definitely is not a good day for China, and one that could quickly get worse depending on what happens with Iran.
China just lost a source of below-market crude, and that is not going to help them push ever more exports onto a global market already glutted with China's economic output.
What is more intriguing is where this leaves the "shadow fleet". We've most often read about the "shadow fleet" in Russian terms, and there has been a propensity to view the world's fleet of fundamentally mercenary oil tankers willing to operate in global grey markets as a distinctly Russian creation. However, while Russia has helped grow the shadow fleet, it has existed for decades, servicing Venezuela as well as Iran in addition to Russia. When Trump seized shadow fleet tankers in the run-up to this moment he made shadow fleet operations that much more expensive for all countries, including Russia and Iran. That coupled with Ukraine's ability to strike shadow fleet vessels deadheading through the Mediterranean and even off the coast of Africa is going to persuade at least some shadow fleet vessels a safer way to operate.
That leaves Russia and Iran with fewer options for shipping sanctioned crude to China, and China with less access to below-market crude. That's not going to help the economies of Russia, Iran, or China.
Reading this, by the time I got to Lula’s comments I was enjoying an image in my mind of Lula huddled in corner, arms over his head, rocking back and forth while muttering, “Am I next?” Ha ha!
Okay, so it maybe will more likely be Petro or Sheinbaum who’s next on the list. Reality: Trump probably won’t incur the political price of attacking anyone else - but he’s SCARED THE PANTS off of all of the drug-dealing despots! Ha ha!
FAFO, indeed!
What a treat to get a bonus All Facts Matter on a Saturday - thanks, Peter! Great content and analysis, as always. I’m delighted that you are following this issue with such interest. Next question for us all to ponder: what are the despots in foundering Iran thinking right now? (“Where can I run? Where can I run?” Ha ha!
If you’re worried about the cost - and I sure get that! - of this arrest of Maduro, it will pay for itself a thousand times over.
Trump said today that he’s going to get American oil-company engineers into Venezuela to get the oil fields producing again. (Under socialism, the equipment was allowed to fail and not be repaired, because Chavez and then Maduro saw giving money away to the peasants as being more important than keeping the oil fields producing. In other words, they killed the golden goose that was producing Venezuela’s wealth!)
It was American oil companies that first developed Venezuela’s massive Orinoco deposits. AMERICAN companies created this wealth - and then Chavez “nationalized” them. Meaning they CONFISCATED them, without compensation to American companies. Well, the American companies are going to be able to recover their losses now, and new wealth will be generated for ALL Venezuelans, along with revenue to us. Venezuela will go back to being the prosperous country it was 25 years ago.
We taxpayers will get new revenue from taxes and tariffs, an experienced military (to deter other despots in the world from acts of aggression against us), and the probable prevention of future expensive wars. THAT will save us a boatload!
I like Trump better and better as time passes.
Trump's Presidency is without a doubt the most muscular Administration we have seen quite a few years, perhaps even since Ronald Reagan.
That's not going to be an unalloyed good over time — it never is — but he said quite explicitly in yesterday's press briefing that his foreign policy revolves around American dominance. He is definitely delivering on that goal.
Peter, I guess my first question would be "Why are we expanding American Power?" To be the "Big Kid" on the block? To take other countries' oil? Just what is the purpose of Gunboat diplomacy?
This is most definitely "not" about Narco-terrorism. It's once again about regime change and stealing resources.
I urge everyone to read retired lieutenant colonel Bill Astore's article, which I linked today @https://nothingnewunderthesun2016.com/
"Venezuela Attacks U.S. President Trump and First Lady Captured; Will Face Trial and Justice in Venezuela" ( https://bracingviews.substack.com/p/venezuela-attacks-us ) which looks at a "what if", if it had been the other way around. Good insights.
Linking your take tomorrow
Governments expand power. Politicians seek power.
When you strip away all the moralizing and political philosophies, that's what governments do, and have done since the Pharaohs. That's what Trump has been doing since Day 1 of his return to the Oval Office. He's doing it in ways that turn the globalist "rules based order" on its side, like by brokering ceasefires and peace deals instead of just backing one side or the other in all the brush wars around the world, but people should have no illusions that President Trump wants America to be a robust and powerful global hegemon. For Donald Trump, "America First" means America sitting at the head of the table.
This is one of those moments when we can see not only that populism is not libertarianism, but that Donald Trump is absolutely no libertarian, and never has been.
Whether that's a good or bad thing depends entirely on what political outcomes you hope to see in the world.
We reap what we sow, we don’t always get to see baddies get taken down this side of eternity.
What I’m wondering- Is the USA allowed to go into their oil fields and get them running again? How is that legal?
My family is livid that Trump just started WW3…they love the NYC mayor and his politics - so thank you for All Facts
If one adopts the Trumpian narrative that the original nationalization of Venezeula's oil industry was basically theft, the conclusion that US oil majors getting to go in and restart that same oil industry is not only legal just just is rather easily reached.
If one insists on a strictly mechanistic reading of obscure statutes with an occasional reference to "international law", that might be a more difficult conclusion to achieve.
However, even if Maduro's VP is allowed to remain in office, I don't see a scenario unfolding where the oil majors are blocked from going in and rehabilitating Venezuela's oil sector. Whether legal or illegal, barring a sudden shift in how events are unfolding in Venezuela, it's what's going to happen.
Not sure how anyone gets to WW3 from here. There's nothing for anyone to really fight over, and the only ones who would like to see Maduro restored to office--Russia and China--do not have the military power to make it happen.
President Trump has been building up a naval presence around Venezuela for weeks. One thing we never saw in response was Russia and China deploying naval assets of their own. That alone tells you which country has real power projection capacities.
Thank you, this helps as my family thinks this is theft by Trump rather than righting wrongs -we’re not used to Good taking action. Perhaps this will jump start some economy and job growth…God have mercy on us and may God bless you for all your hard work keeping us informed and grounded in facts and reality.
Thanks! I appreciate the kind words.
I am hopeful this will prove to be economically stimulative in a sustainable way. Certainly American oil refineries getting access to Venezuelan crude is going to have some economic positive knock-on effects.
Refineries are optimized for particular crudes, and many US refineries are optimized for Venezuela's "heavy sour" crude (meaning the crude is more viscous with a higher sulfur content). Being able to refine Venezuelan crude will mean those refineries will operate at greater efficiency, which will if nothing else continue to push energy prices down in the US, particularly at the gasoline pump.
Whether the oil majors being able to rehabilitate Venezuela's oil industry produces jobs and an uptick in manufacturing here in the United States remains to be seen, but it is a definite possible outcome. We won't know how that scenario unfolds for a few months yet, but this could yet be the sort of game changer the US needs for Scott Bessent's rosy economic projections for 2026 to come true.
This is a massive loss for China. They invested billions into the regimes and that platform evaporated, or at least it is greatly degraded. That’s good for the U.S. Democrats are in disarray. They have been forced to defend Clinton in the Epstein Files, Somali fraud, and now, Maduro. I expect Democrats will aggressively pursue action in the courts. Trump is in total control. Congressional Republicans will continue bumbling which is problematic.
This definitely is not a good day for China, and one that could quickly get worse depending on what happens with Iran.
China just lost a source of below-market crude, and that is not going to help them push ever more exports onto a global market already glutted with China's economic output.
What is more intriguing is where this leaves the "shadow fleet". We've most often read about the "shadow fleet" in Russian terms, and there has been a propensity to view the world's fleet of fundamentally mercenary oil tankers willing to operate in global grey markets as a distinctly Russian creation. However, while Russia has helped grow the shadow fleet, it has existed for decades, servicing Venezuela as well as Iran in addition to Russia. When Trump seized shadow fleet tankers in the run-up to this moment he made shadow fleet operations that much more expensive for all countries, including Russia and Iran. That coupled with Ukraine's ability to strike shadow fleet vessels deadheading through the Mediterranean and even off the coast of Africa is going to persuade at least some shadow fleet vessels a safer way to operate.
That leaves Russia and Iran with fewer options for shipping sanctioned crude to China, and China with less access to below-market crude. That's not going to help the economies of Russia, Iran, or China.
Reading this, by the time I got to Lula’s comments I was enjoying an image in my mind of Lula huddled in corner, arms over his head, rocking back and forth while muttering, “Am I next?” Ha ha!
Okay, so it maybe will more likely be Petro or Sheinbaum who’s next on the list. Reality: Trump probably won’t incur the political price of attacking anyone else - but he’s SCARED THE PANTS off of all of the drug-dealing despots! Ha ha!
FAFO, indeed!
What a treat to get a bonus All Facts Matter on a Saturday - thanks, Peter! Great content and analysis, as always. I’m delighted that you are following this issue with such interest. Next question for us all to ponder: what are the despots in foundering Iran thinking right now? (“Where can I run? Where can I run?” Ha ha!
Why does the US always have to intervene - with OUR TAX DOLLARS - on behalf of other countries? WHO PUT US UP TO THIS?
$40 TRILLION IN DEBT.
If you’re worried about the cost - and I sure get that! - of this arrest of Maduro, it will pay for itself a thousand times over.
Trump said today that he’s going to get American oil-company engineers into Venezuela to get the oil fields producing again. (Under socialism, the equipment was allowed to fail and not be repaired, because Chavez and then Maduro saw giving money away to the peasants as being more important than keeping the oil fields producing. In other words, they killed the golden goose that was producing Venezuela’s wealth!)
It was American oil companies that first developed Venezuela’s massive Orinoco deposits. AMERICAN companies created this wealth - and then Chavez “nationalized” them. Meaning they CONFISCATED them, without compensation to American companies. Well, the American companies are going to be able to recover their losses now, and new wealth will be generated for ALL Venezuelans, along with revenue to us. Venezuela will go back to being the prosperous country it was 25 years ago.
We taxpayers will get new revenue from taxes and tariffs, an experienced military (to deter other despots in the world from acts of aggression against us), and the probable prevention of future expensive wars. THAT will save us a boatload!
Nicolas Maduro is indicted for running drugs into the United States.
Not "other countries". The United States.
Early Analysis of the Actual Operation,
Semper Fortis
Semper Supra
FLY FIGHT WIN!
Lord, have mercy.....
https://open.substack.com/pub/wesodonnell/p/how-the-us-military-executed-the?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&shareImageVariant=overlay&r=26w20k
Very few countries actually recognized Maduro as the rightful leader of Venezuela. < 🇮🇷🇨🇳🇷🇺 >
Basically just Russia, China, and Iran. Not exactly what you would call stellar character witnesses.
Great Post Pete
Thanks!
Like Pres. Theodore Roosevelt; talk softly and carry a big stick. There's a time for talk and a time for action. Trump knows the timing.
His timing has been pretty good so far, based on the results. There’s no getting around that.