Unintended Consequences: The Immunity Ruling Makes Biden's Dementia The Center Of This Election
As evidently tragic and even heartbreaking as Joe Biden’s horrendous debate performance against Donald Trump was, ultimately it was never the impactful narrative put forward by any portion of the media.
For all the media fulminations and bloviations, the implicit presumption by the Democrats has been that Joe Biden would not have serious opposition. For all the pearl-clutching and hand-wringing, the presumption has been that Donald Trump would be either in prison or tied up in court and effectively neutered for the fall campaign.
Then the Supreme Court’s J6 rulings came down. With a pair of rulings, the Supreme Court swept away much of the lawfare deployed against Donald Trump, leaving Joe Biden’s cognitive decline naked and exposed on the political battlefield. Whether by coincidence or design, Joe Biden’s obvious dementia has now become the issue of the fall campaign.
There is very little new to be said about the deceit and utter depravity that went into the White House decision to allow Biden to go on stage with Donald Trump or the media mendacity that undoubtedly played into that incredible blunder. As Bari Weiss makes clear, the media either knew and didn’t care, or didn’t want to know (which is just as bad).
Rarely are so many lies dispelled in a single moment. Rarely are so many people exposed as liars and sycophants. Last night’s debate was a watershed on both counts.
The debate was not just a catastrophe for President Biden. And boy—oy—was it ever.
But it was more than that. It was a catastrophe for an entire class of experts, journalists, and pundits, who have, since 2020, insisted that Biden was sharp as a tack, on top of his game, basically doing handstands while peppering his staff with tough questions about care for migrant children and aid to Ukraine.
The reality was that, as appalling a case of elder abuse as Biden’s Presidency demonstrably has been, that narrative was almost certainly never considered to be all that determinative for the November election, and for one simple reason: Donald Trump, or so the prevailing theory went, was going to be either on his way to prison or tied up in a courtroom, courtesy of Alvin Bragg and Jack Smith.
Then Jack Smith had his case blown up by two Supreme Court rulings.
In the wake of that setback, the Manhattan District Attorney’s office lost no time in becoming amenable to a delay in Trump’s sentencing hearing, presumably so Trump could argue an immunity claim in that case.
Donald Trump's July 11 sentencing on charges stemming from hush money paid to a porn star may be delayed after prosecutors said on Tuesday they don't object to giving the former U.S. president a chance to argue he should have been immune from prosecution.
Trump's lawyers on Monday asked that they be permitted to argue his conviction in New York state court in Manhattan should be set aside due to the U.S. Supreme Court's ruling this week that presidents are entitled to immunity from criminal prosecution for official acts.
These legal delays mean suddenly we have an actual election again. Now Joe Biden’s mental state is an actual campaign issue—because now Biden is sure to have an actual opponent in November.
Now the Democrats have to address the realities of Joe Biden’s declining mental health.
Nor can the Democrats reasonably hope to avoid the issue. While the incidence of dementia has been declining in recent decades, as recently as 2016 between one in four and one in five octagenarians were found to be struggling with dementia1.
The prevalence of dementia decreased from 29.8% in 1986–87 to 21.5% in 2008–10 and 24.5% in 2015–16 among 85-year olds, and from 41.9% in 1989–90 to 28.0% in 2011–12 to 21.7% in 2018–19 among 88-year olds, and from 41.5% in 1991–92 to 37.2% in 2013–14 among 90-year olds. The decline was most accentuated among women. The incidence of dementia per 1 000 risk-years from ages 85 to 89 declined from 48.8 among those born 1901–02 to 37.9 in those born 1923–24 to 22.5 among those born 1930.
Cognitive impairment to some degree is the norm among Americans aged 70 and older2.
Our results show that approximately two out of three Americans experience cognitive impairment, at an average age of approximately 70 years.
While this statistic applies just as much to Donald Trump, his public appearances and demeanor are a strong testimony against him suffering from much if any cognitive decline despite his advanced age. Just as the June 27th debate drove home the reality of Joe Biden’s advancing dementia, it dissipated any similar claim being made against Donald Trump.
Moreover, dementia remains the single major predictor of death among the elderly3.
Dementia was associated with increased mortality in both cohorts (cohort 1901–02, HR 2.6; 95% CI 2.0–3.2, cohort 1923–24, HR 2.8; 95% CI 2.3–3.5), and remained the major predictor of death, with a population attributable risk of 31.7% in 1986–87 and 27.7% in 2008–10. Dementia remained the most important predictor of death in both cohorts. The relative risk for mortality with dementia did not change between cohorts, despite a decreased mortality rate in the population.
Voters must now contend with a very strong probability that Joe Biden cannot survive a second term in the Oval Office.
This is not how the Democrats planned for the November election to unfold. Their plan has been for Joe Biden to be essentially unopposed, with Donald Trump either in prison or in a courtroom and so unable to campaign.
The lawfare persecutions prosecutions of Donald Trump are a pretty strong confirmation that this was the Democrats’ master plan for November.
The strategy being presented against Donald Trump is simple: use the criminal justice system to neutralize him so that Democrats do not have to contend with him in the political system.
That plan is now completely wrecked.
Alvin Bragg’s hush money case has come and gone, and Donald Trump is still campaigning.
Jack Smith’s J6 case hangs by a thread.
Jack Smith’s classified documents case is bogging down in the unraveling minutiae of the FBI’s questionable conduct in that case.
Judge Aileen Cannon wants to hold additional hearings on Donald Trump’s attempts to challenge key evidence in his classified documents case and will allow the former president’s lawyers to question witnesses about the investigation and search of Mar-a-Lago.
Fani Willis’ sweeping RICO case in Georgia has been brought to a standstill by the Georgia Court of Appeals.
On Tuesday, the Georgia Court of Appeals scheduled its hearing to weigh an effort from Trump and eight other co-defendants to disqualify Willis from trying her case against the former president over his alleged attempts to overturn the Peach State’s 2020 election results. That hearing is set for early October.
The Georgia RICO case might not even survive, in the wake of the Supreme Court’s ruling in Trump v United States4.
The decision has implications for criminal prosecutions such as the RICO case in Georgia, which alleges Trump and his allies violated the law with a criminal conspiracy to overturn his loss in Georgia in the 2020 election.
Those implications will now have to be fleshed out by lower courts under the Supreme Court's ruling.
One lawfare case is done with the impacts ultimately minimal to nonexistent (except to bolster Trump’s overall poll numbers), and the other three cases are in various states of collapse.
With Trump’s legal troubles steadily receding, Joe Biden’s cognitive issues now stand to dominate headlines between now and November. Perversely, this is true despite Donald Trump’s considerable baggage—which ordinarily would completely disqualify him in the minds of the voters.
Despite Trump’s defects as a candidate, he remains the President with the better economic record.
Despite Trump’s involvement in the creation of the toxic and deadly mRNA COVID inoculations, Joe Biden is the one who doubled down on pharmaceutical authoritarianism over their use.
Not only are these potential albatrosses to hang around Joe Biden’s neck in their own right, but they bolster a claim that Biden has been merely the addled tool of the permanent Administrative State.
Biden’s dementia—which has now been conceded by even the White House staff—makes every issue that much worse for Joe Biden. Biden’s dementia makes him appear un-Presidential on every issue.
Biden’s dementia is proof of the absolute corruption and mendacity of his administration.
This is the political backdrop against which the Democrats must not only prevail against Donald Trump but also somehow craft a credible mandate to govern this country for another four years.
I will stop short of saying it cannot be done. I will say I do not see right now how it can be done.
Wetterberg, Hanna et al. “Decreasing Incidence and Prevalence of Dementia Among Octogenarians: A Population-Based Study on 3 Cohorts Born 30 Years Apart.” The journals of gerontology. Series A, Biological sciences and medical sciences vol. 78,6 (2023): 1069-1077. doi:10.1093/gerona/glad071
Hale, Jo Mhairi et al. “Cognitive impairment in the U.S.: Lifetime risk, age at onset, and years impaired.” SSM - population health vol. 11 100577. 31 Mar. 2020, doi:10.1016/j.ssmph.2020.100577
Wetterberg, Hanna et al. “Dementia remains the major predictor of death among octogenarians. A study of two population cohorts of 85-year-olds examined 22 years apart.” European journal of epidemiology vol. 36,5 (2021): 507-517. doi:10.1007/s10654-021-00745-5
Trump v. United States, 603 U.S. ___ (2024)
Very well written, and spot on!
So now that the Left’s dastardly, underhanded, banana-republic-style lawfare has backfired, they will become even more desperate and vicious, like cornered rats. At least one commentator today has speculated that an assassination attempt on Trump might occur.
If it does, I think a great many Americans will see it as such - even if it’s Soviet-style, as in “what a shame, a tragic accident” - and such an attempt would also benefit Trump (unless, of course, he died). What do you think, Peter - could there be Vegas odds placed on this, or do you see a far more likely need step for the Democrats?
Outstanding overview as always, Peter 👏🏼