The Atlanta Fed is confirming what Americans already know: we're in a recession.

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2022 is -1.6 percent on July 19, down from -1.5 percent on July 15. After this morning's housing starts report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of second-quarter real residential investment growth decreased from -8.8 percent to -10.1 percent.

What the forecast does not tell us: how bad will the recession be? How deep before we touch bottom?