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...and where do the gas pipelines fit in the picture? The spice must flow.

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Interesting question. Amazingly, the spice has continued to flow despite the war raging around the pipelines. One side effect: NatGas prices are reverting to the mean... which means the arbitrage advantage Russia had is fading fast.

Germany has already suspended certification of Nord 2 -- the spice will not be flowing in that direction any time soon.

At the same time, Russian NatGas is in the long run cheaper than LNG shipped from the US--only the US isn't blowing things up in Europe and Russia is.

How does one price in the value of defense (us) vs offense (Russia)?

I don't see where we have a good answer to that yet.

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It's all perspective... To an arms dealer, offense and defense are equivalent.

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WOW! Thank you for this detailed overview of the situation as of now. This is alarming to saw the least. It seems we humans learn little from our past follies. Bob Dylan's Masters of War could not be more appropriate!

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Thank you!

There's an interesting challenge in doing these analyses. Just like the Canadian Revolution things are changing even as I write. Trying to build a perspective while keeping abreast of things is a fascinating exercise!

(But I'm a geek so I enjoy the mental workout!)

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Pick a war...any war. How 'bout this classic from the War to End All Wars: "In Flanders fields the poppies grow..."

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