If the New York Fed is correct that 40% of the current inflation is supply-side driven, not only is it possible the Fed has reached the limit of what it can do (assuming the rate hikes have been efficacious, which is problematic), but rising commodity prices could signal resurgent inflation later in the spring.
The problem is that while inflation is down some, there's a good probability that it won't last. The Fed has shown no indication it is prepared for that (it would mean the rate hikes are functionally useless).
Sure, it's down some, but it's still too damn high. :)
Price of fuel is down some too, but also still too high.
If the New York Fed is correct that 40% of the current inflation is supply-side driven, not only is it possible the Fed has reached the limit of what it can do (assuming the rate hikes have been efficacious, which is problematic), but rising commodity prices could signal resurgent inflation later in the spring.
The problem is that while inflation is down some, there's a good probability that it won't last. The Fed has shown no indication it is prepared for that (it would mean the rate hikes are functionally useless).