I think you are substantially correct in your Great Powers Competition theory. I know you have given the matter a great deal of thought, and have the knowledge of history to back your thesis. But I’d like you to consider two other factors which may be very important in this instance.
One is “necessity”. If our financial precariousness depends upon having the world’s reserve currency, then Trump can be persuaded that we “must” have world dominance or the whole house of financial cards collapses. That’s a compelling argument!
The other is “the Art of the Deal”. Trump doesn’t just “do” deals, it’s what he IS. He is thinking several moves ahead, considering all objectives and side benefits, etc. Making deals is what fuels him, what keeps him feeling young. He may be getting just as excited by a spectacular deal as he is by the thought of more power. His military advisors would know. how to manipulate him in this regard.
A lot of people have argued that ending the US dollar's status as the world's reserve currency would be disastrous for the US economy.
Every person who does has the situation exactly backwards.
Reserve currency status is a consequence of US economic dominance, not a cause. It is not possible for reserve currency status to influence economic dominance or economic hegemony. That is not how money functions, and never has been.
The US dollar will be dethroned as the global reserve currency when another economy rises to dominate the world economy the way the US economy does currently. That is how the US dollar dethroned the British pound sterling.
As for Donald Trump being "manipulated" into doing deals to satisfy the military-industrial complex, that is always a possibility. As we've seen with Putin's disastrous decision to invade Ukraine, the mere fact that a decision is made in pursuit of geopolitical power and hegemonic influence is no guarantor that the end result will be geopolitical power and hegemonic influence. Quite often the opposite is the result.
I think you are substantially correct in your Great Powers Competition theory. I know you have given the matter a great deal of thought, and have the knowledge of history to back your thesis. But I’d like you to consider two other factors which may be very important in this instance.
One is “necessity”. If our financial precariousness depends upon having the world’s reserve currency, then Trump can be persuaded that we “must” have world dominance or the whole house of financial cards collapses. That’s a compelling argument!
The other is “the Art of the Deal”. Trump doesn’t just “do” deals, it’s what he IS. He is thinking several moves ahead, considering all objectives and side benefits, etc. Making deals is what fuels him, what keeps him feeling young. He may be getting just as excited by a spectacular deal as he is by the thought of more power. His military advisors would know. how to manipulate him in this regard.
Thanks for all of your brilliant work, Peter!
A lot of people have argued that ending the US dollar's status as the world's reserve currency would be disastrous for the US economy.
Every person who does has the situation exactly backwards.
Reserve currency status is a consequence of US economic dominance, not a cause. It is not possible for reserve currency status to influence economic dominance or economic hegemony. That is not how money functions, and never has been.
The US dollar will be dethroned as the global reserve currency when another economy rises to dominate the world economy the way the US economy does currently. That is how the US dollar dethroned the British pound sterling.
As for Donald Trump being "manipulated" into doing deals to satisfy the military-industrial complex, that is always a possibility. As we've seen with Putin's disastrous decision to invade Ukraine, the mere fact that a decision is made in pursuit of geopolitical power and hegemonic influence is no guarantor that the end result will be geopolitical power and hegemonic influence. Quite often the opposite is the result.