Did Vladimir Putin commit a strategic blunder when he chose not to attend the Istanbul peace talks he suggested back in May?
Readers will recall I had speculated at the time Putin might be making a mistake.
Certainly President Trump’s latest comments on the war in Ukraine indicate that he did.
President Donald Trump said that he is "not happy" with Russian President Vladimir Putin over his continuing war in Ukraine.
"I'm not happy with Putin, because he's killing a lot of people," Trump said at his Tuesday Cabinet meeting, adding that many of those people being killed were Russia's own soldiers. "We get a lot of bulls--- thrown at us by Putin," Trump added, as he dismissed the Russian leader's friendliness as "meaningless." The president said he was seriously considering imposing sanctions on Moscow.
This is not the first time Trump has threatened sanctions, or implied there would more sanctions on Russia, and this latest iteration of those statements may ultimately fade away just as the others have.
However, Trump’s mercurial rhetoric on Russia has recently also been seasoned with stronger statements of support for Ukraine, including sending more weapons to Ukraine—something a large part of the MAGA Coalition opposes.
Without US support, Ukraine does not have the resources to prevail against Russia. Even with US support, Ukraine is far from assured even surviving the war with Russia.
Yet Russia is also in bad shape because of the war.
Whether he realizes it or not, Putin needs to end the war sooner rather than later. May's Istanbul talks might have been his opportunity to end the war on favorable terms.
Trump moving more onto Ukraine's side in response to Putin's reflexive duplicity might be a very large and growing larger consequence for Putin of undermining the talks he himself said he wanted.
Interesting! We never know if Trump is expressing a sincere sentiment or if he’s playing a 5-D strategy - although it’s usually the latter.
Peter, I’ve lost track of the details of sanctions placed on Russia over the past few years, such as which ones were lifted, or strengthened, or replaced with stronger sanctions. Any idea what exactly Trump has in mind at this juncture?
I have no insight into what additional sanctions President Trump might be contemplating. At this juncture sending weapons to Ukraine is probably the more impactful move. The longer this war drags on the more it grinds Russia down economically and militarily.
However, Putin through his mouthpiece Lavrov is still expecting to demilitarize Ukraine as a result of this war. He refuses to acknowledge the obvious: that train left the station a long time ago.
The nations in Europe with a history of neutrality (Sweden and Switzerland) have also had robust militaries. Putin wants Ukraine demilitarized AND neutral. That means either NATO or Russia has to agree to be Ukraine's security guarantor, which shreds the premise of neutrality.
All of which leaves both sides locked into eternal war. Putin is gambling he can outlast Ukraine on the battlefield and outlast Europe economically. The first is not unreasonable, but the second could prove a lethally bad bet.