XBB.1.5: The Plague That Almost Was

Estimates Are A Poor Substitute For Hard Data

What a difference a week can make.

In one week’s time the United States has gone from the umpteenth coming of the COVID plague to a Gilda Radner-esque “Never mind!”¹

Last week, the corporate media was having a case of the vapors over XBB.1.5—even though the data never quite measured up to the narrative (again).

XBB.1.5: The Plague Returns...Or Not.

Tim Spector of King’s College London was warning one and all of the dangers the recombinant variant posed, calling XBB.1.5 the “variant to watch out for.”

Tim Spector, professor of genetic epidemiology at King's College London, highlighted an Omicron variant after a scientist said cases had more than doubled in America in a week.

More than 40% of COVID cases in the US are now caused by the XBB.1.5 variant, according to data from the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) from Friday.

Nor was he alone. Maria Van Kerkhove of the WHO called XBB.1.5 “the most transmissible” subvariant yet.

Maria Van Kerkhove, the WHO’s Covid-19 technical lead, said global health officials are worried about how quickly the subvariant is spreading in the northeastern U.S. The number of people infected with XBB.1.5 has been doubling in the U.S. about every two weeks, making it the most common variant circulating in the country.

“It is the most transmissible subvariant that has been detected yet,” Van Kerkhove told reporters during a press conference in Geneva on Wednesday. “The reason for this are the mutations that are within this subvariant of omicron allowing this virus to adhere to the cell and replicate easily.”

And other experts including the CDC claimed XBB.1.5 was the most antibody-resistant strain ever, even though the claims of rampant hospitalizations were potentially overstated.

It has been dubbed the most antibody-resistant strain ever after acquiring mutations that make it less recognizable to vaccinated or previously infected immune systems, leading some experts to fear it could cause a new outbreak.

But others said today they expect Americans to have 'meaningful' protection against the new variant, adding that XBB.1.5 was 'not somehow magically turbocharged to usher in our extinction'. They pointed to XBB.1.5 hotspots where hospital admissions and deaths have yet to rise.

That was last week.

By week’s end, the narrative shifted significantly. While the CDC at the end of December claimed XBB.1.5 accounted for 40% of COVID infections in the United States, by January 6 that figure had “risen” to 27.6%.

The Omicron subvariant, XBB.1.5, is estimated to account for 27.6% of COVID-19 cases in the United States for the week ending Jan. 7, data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention showed on Friday.

The CDC revised its estimate for the week ended Dec. 31 to say XBB.1.5 made up 18.3% of cases, not about 40% of cases.

The agency did not immediately respond to a Reuters request seeking details about the change in estimated data.

Just like that, half of the estimated XBB.1.5 cases in the US vanished.

XBB.1.5 retreated everywhere, including in the American Northeast, where it is by far the dominant COVID strain, according to CDC data. In HHS Region 2, the December 31 CDC nowcast estimate was over 70%.

Now the CDC estimates that at the end of December the percentage was more like 60%.

In HHS Region 1, the climbdown was even more pronounced—from 75% to 57%.

Additionally, the data still does not support the media’s claims of “surging” hospitalizations. Whatever else XBB.1.5 is, it is not the cause of a massive uptick in COVID hospitalizations in Massachusetts, per the HHS.

Relative to capacity, Massachusetts is not being tasked by XBB.1.5. While statewide hospitalizations overall increased for COVID from 1,221 to 1,342, ICU admissions actually fell, from 121 to 118.

In New York’s King County, part of both New York proper as well as the surrounding metropolis, new hospital admissions have been rising of late, but have reached a plateau recently, with new hospital admissions having dropped slightly during the first few days of January.

Even in neighboring Westchester County, new hospital admissions reached a plateau for the beginning of January.

Hartford County, Connecticut, shows a similar plateau for new hospital admissions.

Corporate media has to flat out ignore this data to maintain their narrative that XBB.1.5 “could” overwhelm hospitals with COVID patients, even though both New York and Connecticut have more spare hospital beds at present than they do COVID patients.

New York:

Connecticut:

This even as corporate media concedes that other variants are still outpacing XBB.1.5.

In the week ending on Dec. 31, XBB.1.5 accounted for more than 40% of confirmed cases in the U.S. but as of the week ending Jan. 7, BQ.1.1 is back in the lead, causing 34% of cases.

While corporate media strives mightily to paint XBB.1.5 as the next major COVID threat, the data results in a somewhat different picture. XBB.1.5 is a variant, just as is BQ.1.1, BF.7, and BA.5. They are reminders of a fundamental truth of COVID—the virus is always going to virus. It is going to mutate, change, and evolve, and the human immune system is going to have to adapt in its turn.

The best defense against infectious respiratory pathogens has been and always will be good health. Those most at risk from infectious respiratory pathogens have been and always will be those who are not in good health—the elderly, and those with various co-morbidities that weaken and compromise the immune system.

Yet this reality makes the danger and risk from COVID or any other infectious respiratory pathogen an individual and personal one. People must assess their own individual risk both of infection and of severe disease, and must have the freedom to take appropriate protective measures based on their individual risk level—that is, has been, and always will be the key to minimizing the impact of COVID on any community.

The data makes this reality plain. The corporate media’s efforts to resurrect the Pandemic Panic Narrative go to great lengths to conceal this reality. Follow the data, and disregard the narrative.

1. For those who might not remember Saturday Night Live back when it was funny: