Stockman touches on yet another dimension of the jobs report, similar to one which I will be exploring in my next article which comes out on Monday.
In a myriad of ways too numerous to tackle in a single Note or a single article, the ESSR is not at all a picture of a health jobs situation in the US. It’s toxic and it’s in decline and the corporate media doesn’t want to acknowledge any of it.
Peter, I only scanned the data from the BLS report. I’m seeing some amateur reports that over 80% of jobs were government jobs. Is that what you saw? The government has been the main employer. I’ve also been concerned how many folks who want full time work are only able to find part time work. I’m also curious if BLS shared data updates on whether foreigners are getting more jobs than Americans are.
I don’t trust the BLS. They don’t have accountability to be accurate. After losing 818,000 jobs I expect this monthly report is fluff for the election.
This is where we need to remember that aphorism ascribed variably to Mark Twain and Benjamin Disraeli: "There are lies, damned lies, and statistics."
The ESSR is comprised of two surveys, the Household Survey, which focuses on workers, and the Establishment Survey, which polls businesses. The jobs created number that gets reported every month comes from the Seasonally Adjusted Establishment Survey Data.
Now if we look at the Establishment Survey, the number of government jobs created is a small fraction of those created in Private Industry for September.
When you look at the Household Survey by class of worker, there was a ginormous surge in government workers, and especially relative to private industry.
Ah, but there's a catch: the number of government workers added per the Household Survey is almost double the total number of workers added per the Household Survey.
As it is the total number of workers added per the Household Survey is not quite double the jobs created per the Establishment Survey.
Which is why I took to referring to the BLS Jobs data as "Lou Costello Labor Math"--that vintage Abbott and Costello vaudevillian sketch about how 7 goes into 28 13 times is exactly the sort of mathematical model you need for these numbers to make sense.
And if you do a search through my archive you'll see I've written about "Lou Costello Labor Math" quite a bit. I swear I could take a previous article, update it with the current numbers and graphs, and it would be perfectly suited to the current data!
What emerges when you look at the BLS data overall is that you really can't use the data set for point-in-time analysis. It's just not reliable for that. You can work with the data to glean broad trends and tendencies--if the methodological errors are consistent then in a trend analysis most of those cancel out over time.
What's disturbing about both corporate media AND the "experts" in government is they are quite comfortable using it for point-in-time analysis. Which makes every policy decision made on the basis of jobs data poorly made.
As for more foreign workers getting jobs than native-born workers, I did a deep dive on that topic about a month ago.
It is criminal that one month before the election the voters are deliberately being given an inaccurate and misleading jobs picture. Peter, it must be so aggravating that you cannot confront these manipulators and prove them wrong - again - as usual.
The vindication, of sorts, lies in an aspect of human nature we all have. That is the tendency to be absorbed in one’s own life and problems and see the world through our personal filter. This means that each voter gives little weight to a headline in the news. Instead, he’s thinking that HIS bank balance is low, HIS a payments are overdue, HIS a prospects for a better-paying job are slim, and HIS life hasn’t gotten better under the Biden administration. Never mind whatever glowing economic picture the ‘experts’ are crowing about in the news, HIS life is in the doldrums.
In September, the number of government workers as tracked by the Household Survey soared by 785K, from 21.421 million to 22.216 million, both seasonally adjusted (source: Table A8 from the jobs report). This was the biggest monthly surge in government workers on record (excluding the outlier print in June 2020 which was a reversal of the record plunge from the Covid collapse months before).
Pedodemocrats never stop lying
David Stockman had an interesting read on the job situation as well, maybe you have read it. If not, here it is:
https://internationalman.com/articles/david-stockman-on-why-biden-harris-could-not-print-borrow-or-spend-their-way-to-a-strong-economy/
Stockman touches on yet another dimension of the jobs report, similar to one which I will be exploring in my next article which comes out on Monday.
In a myriad of ways too numerous to tackle in a single Note or a single article, the ESSR is not at all a picture of a health jobs situation in the US. It’s toxic and it’s in decline and the corporate media doesn’t want to acknowledge any of it.
Peter, I only scanned the data from the BLS report. I’m seeing some amateur reports that over 80% of jobs were government jobs. Is that what you saw? The government has been the main employer. I’ve also been concerned how many folks who want full time work are only able to find part time work. I’m also curious if BLS shared data updates on whether foreigners are getting more jobs than Americans are.
I don’t trust the BLS. They don’t have accountability to be accurate. After losing 818,000 jobs I expect this monthly report is fluff for the election.
Thanks for your write up!
This is where we need to remember that aphorism ascribed variably to Mark Twain and Benjamin Disraeli: "There are lies, damned lies, and statistics."
The ESSR is comprised of two surveys, the Household Survey, which focuses on workers, and the Establishment Survey, which polls businesses. The jobs created number that gets reported every month comes from the Seasonally Adjusted Establishment Survey Data.
Now if we look at the Establishment Survey, the number of government jobs created is a small fraction of those created in Private Industry for September.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1v4BN
Within those government jobs, the bulk come from local government.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1v4BT
HOWEVER
When you look at the Household Survey by class of worker, there was a ginormous surge in government workers, and especially relative to private industry.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1v4AC
Ah, but there's a catch: the number of government workers added per the Household Survey is almost double the total number of workers added per the Household Survey.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1v4Bw
As it is the total number of workers added per the Household Survey is not quite double the jobs created per the Establishment Survey.
Which is why I took to referring to the BLS Jobs data as "Lou Costello Labor Math"--that vintage Abbott and Costello vaudevillian sketch about how 7 goes into 28 13 times is exactly the sort of mathematical model you need for these numbers to make sense.
And if you do a search through my archive you'll see I've written about "Lou Costello Labor Math" quite a bit. I swear I could take a previous article, update it with the current numbers and graphs, and it would be perfectly suited to the current data!
What emerges when you look at the BLS data overall is that you really can't use the data set for point-in-time analysis. It's just not reliable for that. You can work with the data to glean broad trends and tendencies--if the methodological errors are consistent then in a trend analysis most of those cancel out over time.
What's disturbing about both corporate media AND the "experts" in government is they are quite comfortable using it for point-in-time analysis. Which makes every policy decision made on the basis of jobs data poorly made.
As for more foreign workers getting jobs than native-born workers, I did a deep dive on that topic about a month ago.
https://newsletter.allfactsmatter.us/p/bidenomics-is-working-for-whom
Short answer: yes.
Always helpful. Thanks Peter!
It is criminal that one month before the election the voters are deliberately being given an inaccurate and misleading jobs picture. Peter, it must be so aggravating that you cannot confront these manipulators and prove them wrong - again - as usual.
The vindication, of sorts, lies in an aspect of human nature we all have. That is the tendency to be absorbed in one’s own life and problems and see the world through our personal filter. This means that each voter gives little weight to a headline in the news. Instead, he’s thinking that HIS bank balance is low, HIS a payments are overdue, HIS a prospects for a better-paying job are slim, and HIS life hasn’t gotten better under the Biden administration. Never mind whatever glowing economic picture the ‘experts’ are crowing about in the news, HIS life is in the doldrums.
And he will vote for change. For Trump!
So you think Biden is lying? No way! When has that ever happened?
ESSR should be renamed the "Employment Situation Simulation Report".
Simulation has a close synonym: "Counterfeit".
I expect it will eventually be revised by -200,000, or more...
It’s all bullshit.
In September, the number of government workers as tracked by the Household Survey soared by 785K, from 21.421 million to 22.216 million, both seasonally adjusted (source: Table A8 from the jobs report). This was the biggest monthly surge in government workers on record (excluding the outlier print in June 2020 which was a reversal of the record plunge from the Covid collapse months before).
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/behind-todays-stunning-jobs-report-record-surge-government-workers
The BLS jobs data is a mess. If it is at all accurate then the jobs markets in this country are a total train wreck.