9 Comments

Somehow the Zero-Covid thing reminds me of Chairman Mao's determination to anihilate the swallows who were eating too much of the grain harvest.

It was disastrous. Of course birds also eat pests...

Expand full comment

That's actually a very good analogy. Mao's campaign against the sparrows became a major contributor to the famine of China's Great Leap Forward.

Expand full comment

According to the fairy tale, once the ignorant rabble began to admit the Emperor was wearing no clothes, his future became dicy. But that's fairy tales for you.

Expand full comment

It's the admission that is the sticking point.

The Chinese people are a long way from that point. Still, if the CCP can't revive the economy at some point the population is going to question if the CCP still enjoys the mandate of heaven.

Expand full comment

All the unoccupied real estate there is opening more eyes, I'm guessing.

Expand full comment

Not necessarily. Many families hold those empty homes as investment. 70% of the Chinese middle class wealth is tied up in those empty properties.

What happens when the value of those properties collapses is a different story.

Wealth destruction can be quite the enlightening experience.

Expand full comment

It seems to me that what you just described is already wealth destruction. Clouds are forming over Xi's head right now.

Expand full comment

What I've described is the BEGINNING of the wealth destruction.

If the Chinese real estate sector collapses the way the US property markets did in 2008-2009, the impact to the Chinese middle class will be cataclysmic.

Bloomberg and Goldman Sachs have rated the Chinese property markets as the world's largest asset class bar none...and it potentially could all evaporate when everything finally shakes out.

Expand full comment

"Commodity Prices Are Declining Due To Zero COVID"

Good!

That said, Zero Covid is like an endless game of whack-a-mole.

Expand full comment