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Aug 28, 2022Liked by Peter Nayland Kust

Considering the level of sanctions that have been imposed, it seems to me that Russia's economy is doing pretty well. I figure this winter, Russia will be one of the few places in the northern hemisphere where people won't be wondering if they can afford to heat their homes and businesses. :)

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The sanctions have been a glorious failure in terms of stopping Russia from pursuing war.

But the counter narrative, that Russia and China are going to run the table, is equally a big steaming pile of malarkey.

Russia might have winter fuel, but they are not likely to have much else.

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Aug 30, 2022·edited Aug 30, 2022Liked by Peter Nayland Kust

I'd rather be on the warmer side and hungry (not starving), than cold and full.

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Having been both cold and hungry at various times in my life, I'm not sure I would make the same tradeoff.

Still, the best scenario is to be both warm and full--something which is likely to be a luxury in more than a few parts of the world before long.

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Aug 28, 2022Liked by Peter Nayland Kust

I wouldn't be so sure of that. Between Russia's natural resources and China's manufacturing capabilities, (which they have primarily thanks to self-destructive western "investments"), a strong alliance between the two of them could indeed run the table.

That's not a prediction that this will actually happen, but I can't see precluding the possibility out-of-hand either.

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The problem with that scenario is that China's economy is already imploding, and their industrial capacity has been greatly diminished by their insane Zero COVID policies.

If both economies were healthy, the alliance could be quite powerful. Unfortunately for them, that's not the case.

China's industrial capacity was already eroding due to an aging workforce and having reached the Lewis inflection point some years ago, after which increases in industrial output require increased wages.

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