"If China’s economy is showing signs of life, it is no doubt due largely to the banks pushing money out the door in the form of new loans to just about everyone."
Any idea what China's total debt to GDP ratio is? By total, I mean government/public, corporate, as well as consumer, all together.
"If China’s economy is showing signs of life, it is no doubt due largely to the banks pushing money out the door in the form of new loans to just about everyone."
Any idea what China's total debt to GDP ratio is? By total, I mean government/public, corporate, as well as consumer, all together.
However, that figure almost certainly understates the government debt picture, given the widespread use of local government financing vehicles, which blur the distinction between government debt, private debt, and government-backed private debt (LGFV debts are not "officially" backed, but their creditworthiness is predicated on local governments backstopping the debt in a pinch).
But when loan growth jumps by several hundred percent, as it did in China in January, that's hardly a recipe for either prudent loan management, prudent risk management, or sound, stable, economic growth.
"If China’s economy is showing signs of life, it is no doubt due largely to the banks pushing money out the door in the form of new loans to just about everyone."
Any idea what China's total debt to GDP ratio is? By total, I mean government/public, corporate, as well as consumer, all together.
With a lot of especially local government financing off the books, there's a certain amount of ambiguity in the total debt/GDP figure.
However, the known debt as of last summer reached 295% of GDP.
https://archive.ph/YTPEp
With China's recent push for new loan growth, that percentage is almost certainly higher now.
The majority of that known debt is in the private sector, as the official government debt to GDP ratio is down around 76-77%.
https://tradingeconomics.com/china/government-debt-to-gdp
However, that figure almost certainly understates the government debt picture, given the widespread use of local government financing vehicles, which blur the distinction between government debt, private debt, and government-backed private debt (LGFV debts are not "officially" backed, but their creditworthiness is predicated on local governments backstopping the debt in a pinch).
But when loan growth jumps by several hundred percent, as it did in China in January, that's hardly a recipe for either prudent loan management, prudent risk management, or sound, stable, economic growth.
https://tradingeconomics.com/china/banks-balance-sheet