"If China’s economy is showing signs of life, it is no doubt due largely to the banks pushing money out the door in the form of new loans to just about everyone."

Any idea what China's total debt to GDP ratio is? By total, I mean government/public, corporate, as well as consumer, all together.

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Feb 13·edited Feb 13Liked by Peter Nayland Kust

Good overview of the situation. The surge in the money supply is a big tipoff as to the scenario we can expect for the next few months. In standard Keynesian fashion the PBoC is clearly trying to jump-start economic activity by means of the printing press. This may work for some of the bigger businesses (e.g. the over-leveraged real estate developers), but they are not the real drivers of economic growth. After three years of enforced abstinence, most people are certainly eager to get back to work, but it will the micro-damage inflicted on SMEs will not be so easy to repair. A LOT of businesses went bankrupt and many of these will never resume business.

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