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Gbill7's avatar

Wow - some of this data is just astounding. Profits down more than 20% in first four months, and 23 trillion dollars of debt, with no way out? And yet the World Bank is projecting growth this year? Are they spinning the data for political purpose, or are they deliberately putting on rose-colored glasses and trying to convince each other that everything is a workers’ paradise? Idiots.

The deflation scenario is getting really interesting. Speculative question: what kind of time span is likely before the deflation starts impacting the US - six months, a year, two years? (I know, it can probably only be a guess at this point.)

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Peter Nayland Kust's avatar

With oil prices continuing to sag and the CPI at a 2-year low, there is a distinct possibility we are already seeing deflationary forces becoming influential.

The tell will be if prices stabilize or if they keep on falling.

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Gbill7's avatar

I just came from the grocery store, and prices are still climbing on certain benchmark products I keep track of. There’s something of a lag between wholesale prices and the retail prices, so I will watch to see if prices start to fall next week and next month. I’m wondering if there is a reliable correlation between how *fast* prices drop and how *far* they will drop. I suppose not. We haven’t had real deflation since the 1930s, so who knows the pattern of unraveling. It will be interesting to see how people react, though.

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