In the wake of inevitable sanctions from the West for its attack on Ukraine, it is worth noting that Russia’s newfound ally against Europe and the US, China, does not seem to be offering much economic comfort, as the ruble has crashed against the yuan just as it predictably has against the dollar and the euro.
Can Russia’s economy hold up without Chinese assistance? Can China actually do much to replace the European trade that is now ruptured?
Has Putin miscalculated the economic aspects of his attack on Ukraine?
This of course could make the situation more dangerous. A wounded animal is more dangerous than a healthy one. I wish our Country and NATO would stand down and everyone take a breath before this become WWIII with no winners. I am old enough to remember the Cuban Missile Crisis. You cannot install troops and missiles in another Superpower’s (Militarily at least) Backyard without repercussions, in this case deadly ones. As a feminist peace and civil rights activists who has marched and organized in every anti-war effort since Vietnam, I am begging the egotistical, macho males who lead the world to please, please not lead us all to perdition! This madness MUST END before it is too late! Have these men learned nothing?😖😩
Not sure if It was clear that I mean that economic chaos benefits Russia. Higher gas prices have already offset the potential loss of NS2 investment. Ruble devaluation strengthens Russia’s domestic economy and weakens the western presence in Russia. It makes their exports more competitive and means that their revenue from energy trade is magnified as it comes in foreign currency not rubles. They either already create everything that they need or are on their way to. I believe that this was planned far in advance and nothing that the west does will come as a surprise and there will be a judo reversal applied to every act of retaliation that the west attempts.
However, if the ruble-yuan imbalance grows too great it destabilizes what is at best a tenuous opportunistic alliance with China.
That hurts Russia in the long run regardless of what the west does.
As OPEC's history has shown, higher gas prices tend to be more transitory than the Fed's inflation narrative. Which makes the short term gains again come at the cost of long term pain.
I agree that there is little the West can do. I'm just not all that persuaded there's a whole lot they need to do. Events, once set in motion, are almost impossible to stop.
I agree with the exception of the characterization of the Russian and Chinese relationship as tenuous. It is permanent. It’s a western pipe dream that the last century of attitudes and actions of the west can be overcome at this point. Russia and China will never realign towards the west at the expense of their comprehensive strategic partnership. What could the US possibly offer Russia to turn them against China who has supported them in the face of relentless “containment” activities of the west? It’s a fantasy.
This of course could make the situation more dangerous. A wounded animal is more dangerous than a healthy one. I wish our Country and NATO would stand down and everyone take a breath before this become WWIII with no winners. I am old enough to remember the Cuban Missile Crisis. You cannot install troops and missiles in another Superpower’s (Militarily at least) Backyard without repercussions, in this case deadly ones. As a feminist peace and civil rights activists who has marched and organized in every anti-war effort since Vietnam, I am begging the egotistical, macho males who lead the world to please, please not lead us all to perdition! This madness MUST END before it is too late! Have these men learned nothing?😖😩
No. They haven't. On either side.
The data demonstrates that conclusively.
This is a feature not a bug
I tend to agree...but did Putin anticipate this?
Is he genuinely inviting economic chaos over Ukraine?
Serious question.
Not sure if It was clear that I mean that economic chaos benefits Russia. Higher gas prices have already offset the potential loss of NS2 investment. Ruble devaluation strengthens Russia’s domestic economy and weakens the western presence in Russia. It makes their exports more competitive and means that their revenue from energy trade is magnified as it comes in foreign currency not rubles. They either already create everything that they need or are on their way to. I believe that this was planned far in advance and nothing that the west does will come as a surprise and there will be a judo reversal applied to every act of retaliation that the west attempts.
That is a possibility.
However, if the ruble-yuan imbalance grows too great it destabilizes what is at best a tenuous opportunistic alliance with China.
That hurts Russia in the long run regardless of what the west does.
As OPEC's history has shown, higher gas prices tend to be more transitory than the Fed's inflation narrative. Which makes the short term gains again come at the cost of long term pain.
I agree that there is little the West can do. I'm just not all that persuaded there's a whole lot they need to do. Events, once set in motion, are almost impossible to stop.
I agree with the exception of the characterization of the Russian and Chinese relationship as tenuous. It is permanent. It’s a western pipe dream that the last century of attitudes and actions of the west can be overcome at this point. Russia and China will never realign towards the west at the expense of their comprehensive strategic partnership. What could the US possibly offer Russia to turn them against China who has supported them in the face of relentless “containment” activities of the west? It’s a fantasy.